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 Replies: 11 / Views: 1,551 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
757 Posts |
Hello all. As my topic suggests I am looking for population estimates on Draped Bust dimes. I can find mintages easily, and I can check population consesus for both NGC and PCGS, but these estimates 1) seem inflated due to resubmissions, 2) don't account for coins that are so rough and damaged that people don't want to send them in, and 3) don't consider how many "undiscovered" ones are out there. So far, if I had to rank the dates pf Draped Bust Heraldic Eagle dimes (combining all varieties--only giving estimates for dates) in terms of what the numbers I have seen suggest, I would rank the dates in terms of rarity as such (#1 being the most rare, while #8 is the most common). Do any of you more experienced numismatists agree with/disagree with my reasoning? 1. 1804 2. 1802 3. 1803 4. 1801 5. 1800 6. 1798 7. 1805 8. 1807 I am wondering where the two small eagle dates would fit in here as well: 1796 and 1797. I actually found a 2014 article by Greg Reynolds online estimating that just under 200 1797 dimes exist while about 650 1796 dimes exist. I don't see estimates for survival rates of Draped Bust large eagle dimes from 1798-1804 exceeding these figures, but then again, what do I know? My questions are as follows: Where do you all go to find good data to estimate populations of survival? Are there specific numbers that you trust? Do any of these years have survival estimates of under 100 coins total? Thanks in advance for any information here that may help. Sincerely, Adam   Edited by Adam590
09/15/2024 6:09 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
Lately I've paid the most attention to the NGC and/or PCGS total of coins they have graded. There are certainly resubmissions, but IMO these are the hardest numbers. It's always going to function more like an index because there are still raw coins out there. Over 30 years, Doug Winter's numbers I used to trust for Charlotte have increased tremendously, so populations have been increasing with time. Using just the NGC numbers, the 1805 and 1807 are over 100, and the rest are under, with 1804 the least common. All the dimes are scarcer than my 1797 Half Dime, which has 197 graded. "Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
09/15/2024 8:02 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
94367 Posts |
Surely here must be a club that studies this series?
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Valued Member
United States
202 Posts |
I am not sure how accurate they are, but CoinFacts does have rarity and survival estimates. For example the 1807 is listed as the least rare in all grades with a survival estimate of 1,000 coins in all grades. https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin...arity/series"The Survival Estimate represents an average of one or more experts' opinions as to how many examples survive of a particular coin in three categories: 1) all grades, 2) 60 or better, and 3) 65 or better. These estimates are based on a variety of sources, including population reports, auction appearances, and personal knowledge. Survival estimates include coins that are raw, certified by PCGS, and certified by other grading services." |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
With time I grew suspicious of the CoinFacts population as being a WAG. Using the known graded number for either PCGS or NGC reflects coins known to exist. Using just one of them reduces double counting/resubmissions. It's only an index anyway, most useful for showing the relative rarity of an 1804 vs an 1807 vs my Half Dime. The Red Book uses the NGC number. "Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
4593 Posts |
-----Burton 50+ year / Life / Emeritus ANA member (joined 12/1/1973) Life member: Numismatics International, CONECA Member: TNA, FtWCC, NETCC, EveryCountry (online) coin club Owned by three cats and a wife of 40+ years (joined 1983) Author: 3rd Edition of the Sample Slabs book, https://www.sampleslabs.info/ |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3848 Posts |
Scroll down to page 17 to see the 2013 census for the JRCS. More has been added but the new journals are not available on the portal as of yet. Hopefully this can help. https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/529804Suffering from bust half fever. Want to learn how to attribute early half dollars by die variety? Click Here: http://goccf.com/t/434955Shoot me a PM if you are looking to sell bust halves. |
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Pillar of the Community
Germany
1849 Posts |
The 'Bust Dime Variety Identification Guide' by Winston Zack, L. Scuderi and M. Sherrill published in 2015 contains, besides estimates for each date between 1792 and 1837, also well illustrated descriptions of each variety.
It does not break down the total estimated per year down into the individual varieties. However, it does provide rarity ratings for each variety. I have found this publication very useful over the years.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
757 Posts |
Thanks so much, everyone, for your helpful tips. It's really cool (and a bit surprising) to put coins into the context of rarity and weigh their value accordingly. It seems Draped Bust dimes are overall more rare and less valuable (for that rarity) than other Draped Bust denominations.
I will continue to play around with all of these resources--and the Washington University one is cool--that's my Alma Mater!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
I'm not seeing a lot of draped bust dime bargains. I'm not seeing that many period.
It's interesting to look at the population reports to see how many of them are graded P/AG.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
09/18/2024 08:55 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
757 Posts |
I agree that I haven't seen Draped Bust Dimes at bargain prices--I wish I have. In addition to a US type set, I would like to complete a high end circulated set of these dimes one day, but I see that as a long time (lifetime really) goal. My comment was more in the vein of comparing Draped Bust Dime prices to those of other denominations in similar condition. For example, buying a 1798 Draped Bust Dime in AU(50) versus buying a 1798 Draped Bust Dollar in AU(50)... or even with Half Dimes. Would love some bargains, though--especially with the 1800-1803 dates! ;) |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4593 Posts |
-----Burton 50+ year / Life / Emeritus ANA member (joined 12/1/1973) Life member: Numismatics International, CONECA Member: TNA, FtWCC, NETCC, EveryCountry (online) coin club Owned by three cats and a wife of 40+ years (joined 1983) Author: 3rd Edition of the Sample Slabs book, https://www.sampleslabs.info/ |
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Replies: 11 / Views: 1,551 |
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Posted 09/15/2024 6:56 pm
