Grading Advice For All Collectors

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There is both hidden value and hidden danger in the frequently misgraded series. Where the frequently misgraded series overlap with abraded die varieties, the error rate increases. Buffs and SLQs are difficult enough to grade without the added complexity of abraded shield SLQs and abraded clash polishing on the Buffs.

Here are a few thoughts:

TPGs spend far too little time grading the more difficult coins. They functionally have an assembly line grading process, with quick assessments and a method to develop a grade consensus. Their graders are good, but rushed. On bourse floors, collectors and dealers have much more time to assess grades. This creates a huge advantage for collectors and dealers who seek the undergraded and hidden value coins and want to avoid getting bitten by the overgraded and overpriced coins.

In lower collectible grades (FR/AG/G), there isn't much upside for most coins, with the rare coins being obvious exceptions. In the upper grades (AU/UNC), grading is much more accurate. The greatest opportunities are in the lower middle grades (VG/F/VF) and the greatest risk in the upper middle grades (VF/EF), noting that VF is in both categories. Spend most of your time with the VG to EF coins.

All of the TPGs struggle with abraded die varieties in the VG/F/VF range. With a few notable exceptions, these coins have value more for the variety than the technical grade. The hunt for undergraded abraded die varieties generally is a hunt for better eye appeal and for a possible bargain price.TPG overgrading is common at the EF/low AU level, and cautious grading there can avoid overpaying for coins.

I don't want to single out one TPG for things all TPGs are doing, so take this not as criticism of the largest TPG alone. Within the Buffalo series, I frequently see lower VF coins slabbed as F-15, F-12, and even VG-10. There is hidden value there. On the other hand, I also frequently see high VF coins slabbed as EF-40 and high EF coins pushed to AU-50. There is hidden danger there.

For collectors and dealers, there are five solutions:
Repeat the old mantra, "Buy the coin, and not the slab." Do this until you start looking at the coins without even looking at the TPG grade. Don't just repeat the words. Drill this deep into how you think about the coins. EVERY Buff and SLQ needs to be seen as a raw coin, regardless of the plastic prison around it.

Slow down. Take time. Grade each coin individually, carefully, and critically. Keep looking at the coin until you are confident of the grade. There's an old baseball adage that a chump practices something until he gets it right and a champ practices something until he can't get it wrong. Keep looking at the coin until you can't get it wrong.

Don't try to talk yourself into a coin. If you have to do that, walk away from the coin.

Take into consideration die state, strike quality, and die clash polishing, in that order. Assess each element separately. Grade each coin using the scale that should exist, rather than the scale presently being used. In other words, in your mind include F-18, VF-18, and especially EF-48 as grades. I guarantee you will see the coins with hidden value much more readily by doing that and will start to see the overgraded EF-40 slabs as the VF-38 coins they actually are and the overgraded AU-50 slabs as the EF-48 sliders that they are.