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Statistical Odds Of Getting A PF70 Coin

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BH1964's Avatar
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 Posted 07/20/2009  7:02 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
What about 1999 Silver Proof State Quarters? Those wouldn't have a very good chance of grading PF70?

And do all coins in sets such as the new lincoln pennies usually grade the same?


1) I wouldn't bet on the '99s. Maybe 1 of the 5 would be a 70.

2) No - they will vary. A new 4 piece Lincoln proof set would likely be spread out from 67 to 70.
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steve199's Avatar
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 Posted 07/20/2009  7:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add steve199 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
What about 1999 Silver Proof State Quarters? Those wouldn't have a very good chance of grading PF70?


No, they wouldn't have a good chance. A coin is worth thousands of dollars because it is rare.




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steve199's Avatar
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 Posted 07/20/2009  7:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add steve199 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
1) I wouldn't bet on the '99s. Maybe 1 of the 5 would be a 70.


If you are talking about PCGS, I would take that bet in a heartbeat. Heritage has sold one Silver Delaware PCGS PF-70. For over $17,000.

So I'd say the odds are much smaller on finding a 1999 quarter that would grade PF-70 at PCGS.
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XavierOfGreen's Avatar
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 Posted 07/20/2009  7:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add XavierOfGreen to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
ultra cameo is different than ms70,
for example, NGC has graded more Ultra High reliefs as MS 70 than MS 69, however the prooflike designation is exceedingly rare(over 1400 MS70's but only 60 MS70 Proof Likes). Ultra Cameo's are usually the first few coins struck on a new die, so naturally only 5 or 6 UCams are produced per die pair, leaving them to be exceedingly rare.
-XoG
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BH1964's Avatar
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 Posted 07/20/2009  7:38 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
So I'd say the odds are much smaller on finding a 1999 quarter that would grade PF-70 at PCGS.


I'm sure they are smaller. NGC has given out thousands of 70s on the State Quarter series but PCGS has only started to lighten up and grade as they should instead of grading for reputation.
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 Posted 07/20/2009  8:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add acramos1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hey bherring1964, what about 2008 State Quarters? Better chance of 70s on them?

And what is up with PCGS population report, why are there way less 70s than NGC? Are there really that much harder or do they not include half of the coins they grade in their population?
Edited by acramos1
07/20/2009 8:49 pm
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 Posted 07/20/2009  10:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add acramos1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Can you please reply when you're on again, bherring1964?

I appreciate all your valuable comments so far!
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BH1964's Avatar
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 Posted 07/21/2009  01:25 am  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
To the best of my knowledge, all the coins PCGS grades make it into their pop reports.

For many years PCGS would rarely, if ever, give out a 70 grade. Heck a 69 was very unusual from them. During this time NGC regularly graded modern U.S. Mint proofs as 69 & 70. I believe it all had to do with PCGS trying to uphold an image of being tougher and thus better. Things have changed a lot in the last year or two.

As far as a 2008 Proof State Quarter set; study each coin under 10X mag, have a dealer help you submit only the best, keep you fingers crossed, and you will have a good shot at a 70.
ANA #R3154474
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 Posted 07/21/2009  2:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add acramos1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What do you mean when you say things have changed a lot in the last year or two?
Edited by acramos1
07/21/2009 2:51 pm
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BH1964's Avatar
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 Posted 07/21/2009  3:14 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In the last two years, PCGS has frequently graded new U.S. Mint proofs as 69 or 70.
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 Posted 07/21/2009  4:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add acramos1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Why do you think that is? Getting a bad reputation?
Edited by acramos1
07/21/2009 5:13 pm
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BH1964's Avatar
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 Posted 07/21/2009  7:00 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm not really sure why PCGS "shifted". I do think it was ridiculous to grade "perfect" coins as 68 when NGC was throwing 70s on them.

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Morgans Dad's Avatar
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 Posted 07/21/2009  7:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Morgans Dad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
$17,000 + for a silver Delaware PF-70 quarter, now that is a good investment!!
I should get out more often!
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 Posted 07/21/2009  10:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add acramos1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hey bherring1964, I just got two more questions for you. (lol)

1. Do PCGS and NGC grade the same when it comes to high grade circulating
coinage such as the new brilliant uncirculated lincoln pennies?
2. And about how many formative years rolls would I have to buy in order to
find a MS-67 to MS-69 example?
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BH1964's Avatar
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10982 Posts
 Posted 07/22/2009  12:15 am  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Okay acramos1 - Here's my best shot:

1. Although I don't have the pop reports, it seems NGC has been a touch more lenient than PCGS on the 2009 BU Lincoln cents.

2. To my knowledge there has not been a single 2009 Lincoln Cent to grade over MS67 at NGC or PCGS. The rolls I've seen are pretty bad with 64 being about average. You would have essentially no chance of getting a 68 or 69 from either of the "Big Two". A 67 would be a long-shot - say 1 coin in 1,000 rolls at best.
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