Statistical Odds Of Getting A PF70 Coin

Even from U.S. Mint Rolls?

The rolls in U.S. Mint wrappers might be a bit better but I wouldn't bank on it. Take a look on ebay and see what MS67s are bringing.

I did see a 68! Here it is:
http://cgi.ebay.com/2009-P-LINCOLN-...AY_W0QQitemZ a href= https://www.coincommunity.com/go/link.asp?target=https://www.ebay.com/itm/-/360170235988 target= _blank rel= nofollow 360170235988 /a QQcmdZViewItemQQptZCoins_US_Individual?hash=item53dbd1a854&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=65:12%7C66:2%7C39:1%7C72:1205%7C293:1%7C294:50

There's another NGC that closed over a grand. The odds are against you. A 66 is probably the best you'll find.

Here is the problem as I see it- making money on coins is not as easy as you seem to think it is. If it was really that easy, everyone would be doing it. It takes years or decades of experience handling and grading coins, that is the only way to reliably(and honestly) make money selling coins. Sure, a blind hog finds an acorn once in a while but many more people lose money trying to play the grading game than do people that actually make money. That is precisely why you can purchase numerous slabbed coins for less than $20 or $30, the original submitter took a loss on getting those graded because the fees were more than the coin was actually worth. The vast majority of coins like that are submitted by inexperienced graders who have an inflated opinion of the grades of their coins and then become bitter when their grades are two or three points lower than they hoped for.

You have a very investment-oriented mindset and with your obvious level of inexperience(judging by the types of questions you have been asking), that is a recipe for financial disaster. You really need to take the time and properly learn about numismatics instead of trying to figure out the "easiest" source of ultra high grade coins and flip them for a profit. I recommend purchasing a RedBook and reading it cover to cover. After that, purchase a few other books starting with some on the specifics of grading. The ANA Grading Standards is good for all coins and the NGC Grading Guide for Modern Coins will probably be right up your alley. One final book recommendation would be The Expert's Guide to Collecting and Investing in Rare Coins by Q. David Bowers, a top numismatic author.

acramos1 I believe biokemist6 has provided some good advice. Coin collecting is a hobby to enjoy in it's own right and not something to look to for profit. It's not that money can't be made, it's just that if that is your goal you're likely to be disappointed.

As far as your specific questions: 1) Most collector's prefer "business strikes" to proof coins. Finding high grade business strikes is more of a challenge and can yield better results. 2) The success rate of crossing any TPG 70 into a PCGS 70 holder is near zero.

Coins is definitely not a "get rich quick" vehicle and you have to know what you are doing to even come out even. I have seen many new collectors see all kinds of RARE coins sell for big money and their eyes light up like they have just found the next big way to get rich with little effort and that just aint gonna happen with coins, and especially moderns. The mint isn't going to let any modern have a bigger demand than they can supply (actually they flood the market with their junk and make their prices higher than you would ever be able to sell them for). The coins that are in the papers making records are coins that have been held in strong collector (expert) hands for man many years and when they finally come on the market you have had many more experts just waiting to acquire it and have the connections to get up the money to purchase it. Chances of finding a million dollar coin in a bag or even in your grandfathers collection (unless he is one of the experts that is well known in the hobby) is pretty much slim to none. There are some people that have made a living of selling and grading moderns but they buy millions of dollars worth of coins from the mint to do it. If the mint has a limit on what you can buy these sellers get other collectors to buy them for them until they get what they want. They also know how to grade pretty well themselves and they will only submit for grading the coins they think should make the PF-70 grade and the others will be sent back to the mint for exchange until they have enough that grade what they want to supply their customers. So unless you have quite a big chunk of change laying around (that you aren't going to need for awhile) to spend on coins then the deck is stacked against you on getting rich quick like I think you think you are going to do


Chances of getting a MS-69 from any grader (except the bottom basement slabbers) isn't going to happen. A coin has to be almost perfect and I mean perfect to the naked eye to even come close to a 69 and Business Strike coins just aren't going to be that way because of the way they are handled at the mint. They are threw in a hopper (which makes marks) before and after they are minted, then they are thrown in bags hitting each other (which makes marks) and then they are put in counting machines (which can destroy a coin) so the chances of finding a perfect coin without working in the mint and hand carrying the dies and planchet by hand from start to finish then its not going to happen

Look guys, I'm not trying to get rich or anything like that! These are just things that I was curious about and wanted to figure out!

Bherring1964, could YOU please answer my questions nicely?

So, you're saying NGC to PCGS crossovers would be more successful with modern business strike coins rather than modern proof 70s?

For example, if I sent in a 2009 Lincoln Cent graded MS-67 by NGC into PCGS.

Thanks for all the info, bherring1964! It was nice talking with you!

But, I have one more kind of random question. (lol)

What do you think of the 2008 Mint Set as an investment?