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Bubble?

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Valued Member
Wei Fun's Avatar
United States
244 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  1:11 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Wei Fun to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Let me first say, I don't know what the future holds, and certainly can't predict the future of markets, prices, and currencies.

But, I think back to the recent past, and we've just lived through two major bubbles. First, in the late 90s into 2000, the .com bubble, and second, in the mid 2000s, the housing bubble.

Remember back in the late 90s, so many stock brokers were advertising like crazy? Some ads got so bad, they would feature everyday people waking up in the morning who were fantastically rich by evening?

And in the housing bubble, the same behavior. TV was filled with "flip your house" type shows, showing how easy it was to make money in real estate - practically a guaranteed profit.

We look back now, and can see how both of these were symptoms of disfunctional markets in the late stages of a price-irrational bubble.

Well, I don't watch much TV these days, but the few times I've turned it on, it's constant ads from outfits pushing gold investing.

Predictive? Not necessarily. But the parallel definitely seems eerie to me.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  2:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I hear there are entire neighborhoods of fore closed houses in an around Vegas and other places, that is like a ghost town. Homes now to unwanted guests be it human or animal.....

Just like a typical human, lets build thousands of more houses then the world around us really needs, then they can just rot away. This is just one of many examples, of another stick in the spokes of our system....

Yes Wei-fun there is a guy twirling a sign by the road outside a store two miles from me right now, and it says we buy gold. I was curious, stopped in to see if they sell anything, just a rather large room for having one desk and lady in the middle SELLING NOTHING, just waiting to buy gold, rof....
Edited by Silverhawk74
04/07/2011 3:46 pm
Valued Member
vinnycoin's Avatar
Canada
442 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  3:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vinnycoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Maybe, but we're still a long ways away in my opinion. The commercials right now I believe most people dismiss. Just like the other infomercials out there at 3am.

However, I believe once inflation does start to rise, and people realize that gold/silver is actually a valuable asset to own rather than dollars, then thats when the mania phase will start.

You have to remember, alot of people are still brainwashed into the federal reserve notes as a sign of wealth. That mentality will persist for a while, even when the dollar index continues its drop.
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Darth Anarchus's Avatar
United States
1388 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  4:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Darth Anarchus to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One of the "buying gold" places in my town has the creepiest guy doing the sign-waving... He looks the type that would steal the gold, rather than buy it... Oh Wait!, that's what they REALLY do!
Valued Member
vinnycoin's Avatar
Canada
442 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  4:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vinnycoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
^ indeed, and unfortunately its usually older folk that are not all that well informed selling their old gold jewelry just to make ends meet. Dont' know how some of them sleep at night.
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biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  5:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
just a rather large room for having one desk and lady in the middle SELLING NOTHING, just waiting to buy gold, rof....


They're selling to someone, they just don't want the aggravation and risks of selling retail. If they make 20% and can buy an ounce a day, that's more than enough to handle their overhead. That's why there are a dozen gold buyers in towns that used to have one.
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  6:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One thing to note. The housing bubble was in a big part caused by people thinking there was no end in sight to the good times and economy. Too many people buying what they couldn't afford to begin with and banks loaning to people that shouldn't have gotten loans.I don't see people buying gold and silver with money they don't have like when housing was booming, so that's a plus. But the one thing I do is warn people not to think you can't go wrong with PM's..and I see that repeated often enough to feel a little more comfotable.
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Wei Fun's Avatar
United States
244 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  6:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wei Fun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You are probably right that people aren't buying PMs with money they don't have, but I wonder how many are buying with money they can't afford to lose, thinking they're a sure thing?
New Member
United States
23 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  7:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add westsea301 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Gold isn't going up; the dollar is going down. The only bubble we're currently in is the dollar bubble. Endless Treasury purchasing and loaning cash to banks for 0.5% interest is pumping up the stock market, and encouraging the consumer to believe some sort of recovery is underway. Now the U.S. is at the point of no return in terms of debt, and the leaders are squabbling over whether to trim 30 or 40 billion. This is equivalent to 1% of the current year's budget or 0.3% of the total national debt. They are unable to resolve this issue and are threatening to shut down the government. So as of now, there is no hope of them EVER reducing the national debt again. Seems like many are worrying about the price of gold in dollars, when they should be worrying about the price of dollars themselves.

As for gold commercials and the like, I see many of them, but mostly on cable news and financial channels. At this point precious metals discussion has gone from being conspiracy fodder to CNBC discussion. It still has to get to NBC Nightly News, Local News, and the officer water cooler until I'd think its gone mainstream. The coin community has always had an interest in bullion. I'm hard-pressed to find anyone else I know buying silver or gold right now.
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  7:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I'm hard-pressed to find anyone else I know buying silver or gold right now


Me too, and that is my answer to Wei Fun....I watched way too many people go way over their heads in the housing boom...I don't see it with PM's...sure, there are always a few exceptions, but I couldn't believe what happened with housing and refinancing,it was as if everybody lost their minds.
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vinnycoin's Avatar
Canada
442 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  9:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vinnycoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Agree with westsea. The bickering over the tiny cuts in the budget is equivalent to couple of months of interest. It is definitley a vicious cycle that will be very very hard to overcome. Unfortunately, the measures that are needed will spell absolute disaster for the political party that puts them in place.

Everything else right now are just temporary band aids. And the low quality ones at that.
Valued Member
Wei Fun's Avatar
United States
244 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  10:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wei Fun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I'm hard-pressed to find anyone else I know buying silver or gold right now.


An awful lot of people watch cable news. If they weren't buying gold, the people who run the commercials would figure it out quickly enough and stop running them.
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hockingzig's Avatar
United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 04/07/2011  11:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hockingzig to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have so many friends that could afford to buy gold,and I have been working on them for the last 5 years to get into gold and silver but they all tell me their financial"advisers" tell them gold is a dead end,it doesn't pay dividends! I have shown them the dollar loss in value,the increases in gold prices related to the dollar and they just look at me like I am conspiracy theorist or something. Most people have been sold on the stock market as the only way to make money so gold will NOT hit bubble conditions until there is another significant stock market"correction" as gold continues to increase in value. Once that happens,mania phase will set in and gold will go to $5000/oz.
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 04/08/2011  07:19 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
WeiFun, I am not saying there aren't a lot of people in on the run up.But let me explain my view. I had ten people working for me during the housing fiasco. 8 of them either bought a new house or refinanced. Right now exactly one of them has invested in gold and silver..and it amounts to 30 ASE's and one gold buffalo.The rest barely know anything about PM's.
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Ozzie's Avatar
Cyprus
349 Posts
 Posted 04/08/2011  08:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozzie to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
what about the AUD dollar?............it's heading to bubble land........
Bedrock of the Community
sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 04/08/2011  09:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
U.S. house prices are dirt cheap from an Australian viewpoint. My daughter in law comes from Southern California and my son is finishing up with his job in Sydney soon, where house prices have been rising faster than inflation by 3% for the last 15 years.

This leaves them with the very real choice for my son to start an accountancy practice in the U.S. and for the daughter in law to migrate back home. She will no doubt pick the city where they will live, but at least they are open to a wide choice in that regard, to take advantage of house prices.

With depressed house prices in some areas, they seem to have enough money to buy their first house outright, fully paid for.
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