Statistical Analysis Of Key And Semi-Key Lincoln Cents

If interested, I just did a similar study for Jefferson nickels:

https://goccf.com/t/89019#735356

If interested I also did a study of Indian Head cents and I compared my findings with prices:

https://goccf.com/t/89040

Can someone explain this in simple terms, cause I'm lost as hell

DRDAVE- this is very cool! How difficult would it be for you to add the Satin finish coins from the 2005-2010 Mint sets?

Ok.. That does make sense. So to include poofs and known mintage varieties would skew the data because one of the rules for your sets are that they are circulating coins? Forgive me it has been twenty years since I took statistics...lol

I am new to this forum, so please humor me. I love statistics, but I must admit that I don't understand what the Z values really mean for Lincoln Memorial cents. I mean, really none of these are rare and probably never will be. The regular mintages, anyway (not the double dies, etc.). Are you trying to say that comparatively speaking to the most common dates (highest mintages) that the ones with the lowest Z values are the best buys, or the ones that should be saved? But does it really mean that they will be worth much more than a common date?

perfessor: when roll searching, the population of some modern coins is still very low despite high mintages. Think about this:

During the years 1909-1958, the total number of wheat cents minted for general circulation is 25,817,170,757. That's 25.8 billion coins total. The mintage of a 1909 S VDB is 484,000. In terms of population statistics, that is 1 out of every 53,000 coins from wheats would be a 1909 S VDB. (That is, if everyone through them back into the population pool, lol.)

During the years 1959-2010, the total number of modern cents minted for general circulation is 433,838,318,390. That's 433.8 billion coins total. (In 1982 alone there were 10.7 billion coins minted, which is almost half of all wheat cents!). The mintage of a 1968-S is 258,270,001 (258 million). Out of the modern cents, 1 out of every 1,680 modern cents is a 1968-S.

Now, from simple population studies, the 1909-S VDB is more rare (even in 1959) than a 1968-S is. Stating the obvious? However, let's pretend that the wheats were never minted, and the starting year for the Lincoln cents was 1959. Which coin is the rarest? 1968-S, of course, you can tell this from simply looking at the mintage numbers. What I was trying to do is to determine if whether certain coins from the modern era should/could be termed "key" or "semi-key" in terms of their relative population. I believe it's not obvious when looking at mintage numbers directly, that's why I've manipulated the numbers the way I have.

So, I guess, the lowest Z-values would be the ones to keep, but you could have done this yourself by looking at the mintage production numbers. My top 10 is no different than anyone else's since they are based strictly off of mintage numbers. What I haven't seen before (and maybe I'm just not aware of it) is a LINEAR TREND of a population statistic with price and I believe I have found it. My next step is to determine what coins are under-priced and over-priced under this analysis scheme, and have a sort of buying strategy. I'm working on that now and still want to do some more studies, but hopefully I'll post those results in another thread soon.

Good point biggfredd. I'll be the first to agree with you that mintage statistics aren't the only way to look at prices, but it is one way, and only one tool. There is an overall trend with mintage and prices, however. There are, of course, other factors, some may be more important than mintage figures. That's what makes this hobby so interesting.