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Pm Prices Are Falling.

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Valued Member
United States
362 Posts
 Posted 04/14/2012  12:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ICanSeeYou7687 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I was literally putting my credit card information, and then I realized it said that the englehard 10 oz bar could be a loaf, or extruded. I think the extruded ones have less collectors value, I am unsure, so thats probably what they will give you.

So I am not sure if I still want this. But they seems to have great prices on philharmonics, and maples too, 33.74 a coin, with only 15$ shipping. Was thinking about picking up 10 oz's or so. But have not made up my mind, lol.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/14/2012  5:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Those PM ads that are unclear about what we are really buying just turn me off. I want to KNOW what I am getting for my money. If it isn't what I want, then no deal!
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/14/2012  5:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
After that it is anyone's guess as to what will happen.

You're right, no one can tell.

The one thing that impresses me is the above-ground ounces of silver, which has shrunk from almost a billion to almost none.

When it hits zero, you can only dig so fast, and all the market manipulation in the world won't create another fizzical ounce.

That's when it gets real interesting.
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/14/2012  5:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If PM's were really destined to skyrocket as some say do you really think they would tell us? No! they would be buying every ounce they could get all the while tell us to sell ,sell, sell.


Not necessarily so. If a PM broker makes 2% a week, he doubles his money in a year. This is true for him whether the market goes up or down.

This is a whole different concept from buy low and sell high, which is what investors do.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 04/14/2012  6:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree Fredd and it is simple math. When you are only making 2% should not be hard to move a certain item. Of course one would have to move many products to turn a double your money by the years end as you suggested, which in lies more work. But that is the way it should be, you get what you put into it...

For example, today a tip as a server short of four dollars, is not helping much with gas prices an other inflation. Of course I rarely get tips that low except when I serve a lunch shift or two a week on Tues an Wed. Often, I may have a two topper that is real easy to take care of, say two teas an two fish an chips. No need to wright that down, lol. Easy to clean up, maybe one refil along their lunch. So if the ticket is $22.50, an you round it up to say $27.00 dollars, then that is fine with me. Of course I tip WAY higher on that same ticket, but I have lived on tips most of my day. So in that case at lunch to make any cash one must execute what us in the restaurant business call "Turn an burn", as it is being able to knock out twelve tables before lunch ends where you make your money, an just one party over 7 people with the grat already added changes that formula way in your favor in that case....

Same can be down in the PM world. These PM sellers who have 20 thousand plus feed-backs an constantly running silver an gold auctions, where they are probably making around what Fredd said 2%, or again "turn an burn baby!"
Edited by Silverhawk74
04/14/2012 6:03 pm
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trout1105's Avatar
Australia
7096 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  06:40 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trout1105 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The market last week had a couple of nervous twitches of a dollar or more and settled/got manipulated back again.
It makes me wonder if there is going to be a spike shortly
I have been quietly buying a couple of grands worth of silver over the last 2 weeks and intend to do the same until the price spikes again.
I really cannot see silver staying at 31-32 bucks for much longer tho, So I am getting in while I can afford it.
Valued Member
Piffin's Avatar
United States
299 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  07:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Piffin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I do expect silver to take off at some point. Meanwhile, I am not waiting on that to make money from it.

SLV is trading in a range ( manipulated possibly) from about 30 to 34.50.
So as it gets near the low end, I buy, and as it gets near the high end I sell. Then I take the c. 10% profits and buy more physical with it.

You guys waiting for 20 to buy physical will be waiting forever. If we ever see twenty dollar physical again, the will have already hit the fan.
Besides, as the price slides lower, there is less available to buy
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traevin's Avatar
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  7:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If we ever see twenty dollar physical again, the will have already hit the fan.
Besides, as the price slides lower, there is less available to buy


I guess I have a little bit of a different opinion about that. I can tell you from experience that there was no shortage of silver being sold when the price bounced between $9-18 between the Fall of 2008 and the Fall of 2010. ebay ran PM auctions 24/7, just like now. Dealers dealt and buys bought with nary a hiccup, and I went from zero silver to 750 oz. of it in two breathless years. If I'd had the money, I surely would have been able to buy double that figure in the same period, judging by the number of auctions I lost back then. Those years spoiled me, because I never knew silver cost anymore than my average SAE or SML price of $14-17 an oz. If we have another stock market crash or a recession, I believe silver will bottom out once again, especially if it's a prolonged recession. I don't think the offal has to hit the fan for PM to drop off a cliff again. We have the ingredients for it, right now. Banks are still leveraged up to their eyeballs. Credit default swaps are still the riskiest, most deleterious trade on the planet. The stock market has risen to within 700 points or so of the 2007 all-time highs and TPTB might think it's ripe for the picking once again now that middle class is back in the game after an extended break. Europe is still on the brink of a major banking disaster. Interest rates are still dragging the pavement. Gas is right back where it was in 2008, before the plug was pulled and it dropped to what, $20 a barrel? China's economy is slowing at a disconcerting rate. Housing is still considered overpriced by many experts and poised to plunge deeper underwater. I could truly go on. IMO, the last "recovery" was made possible by the printing press, and I don't know how many more times they can go to that well before it runs dry. It wouldn't surprise me to see a major PM drop before or soon after the next election, depending on the winner, which I "assume" will be the incumbent.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  8:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The one thing that impresses me is the above-ground ounces of silver, which has shrunk from almost a billion to almost none.

When it hits zero, you can only dig so fast, and all the market manipulation in the world won't create another fizzical ounce.

That's when it gets real interesting.

Agreed, Fredd. I also wonder about what will happen if some really big money comes into the paper silver market and then stands for delivery. It's pretty clear from the info on the net that the CME / COMEX does not have the physical silver necessary to back up more than a few percent of its sales. All but a few of these contracts settle for cash, so whatever physical metal is in their vaults can be leased or loaned out for a fee and they are doing that. It will be quite a day of reckoning when more delivery is demanded than they can fill.


Quote:
I can tell you from experience that there was no shortage of silver being sold when the price bounced between $9-18 between the Fall of 2008 and the Fall of 2010.

That may depend on where you are looking. I have seen times in the past couple of years where the local coin shops had very little inventory to sell and could not get more for some weeks. Either that or they were holding metal and simply refusing to sell it at those low prices. It was hard to know which.

I'm not sure that ebay represents the whole picture on this, although it does have its uses.
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Piffin's Avatar
United States
299 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  8:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Piffin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I laugh when I read the word, "Recovery", not at you traevin, but at the press and pols.

Yes there is always silver on ebay but I'll wager you were paying a good bit over spot to get it. The mint itself dried up! The smart money was sitting on their silver, not selling it at a loss.
I commend you the foresight to stock up when you did
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traevin's Avatar
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  10:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I laugh when I read the word, "Recovery", not at you traevin, but at the press and pols.

Yes there is always silver on ebay but I'll wager you were paying a good bit over spot to get it. The mint itself dried up! The smart money was sitting on their silver, not selling it at a loss.
I commend you the foresight to stock up when you did


I know what you mean. For millions of Americans, there was no recovery. So many seniors were wiped out and they will never have time to recover what was lost. The lion's share of my sympathy lies with them.



But about the silver collection, funny thing is, I've never bought an ounce of silver from any distributor, mint, pawn shop, coin shop, or anywhere else besides ebay and I never paid what the big retailers ask. Of course, I also never did the BINs on ebay; just auctions. But there's a catch. It takes a ton of research and perseverance to figure out exactly what one should pay for a particular coin and I had to be willing to stick to my plan regardless of outcome. I typically had to put in an average of 29 losing bids on a snipe program for every 1 winning auction to get the lowest price. It was really frustrating at times. So it takes a lot more time and energy than picking up the phone and calling a dealer or stopping in at the local coin shop and having the PMs there for the taking. The way I did was a real hassle; but believe me, I'm a disabled vet on a shoestring budget, then and now, so I had no choice but to get the best deals or get nothing at all.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  10:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No recovery a play with numbers on unemployment as well as inflation. Those that gave up looking aren't included as well as many necessary items not included in inflations
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 04/15/2012  11:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
It will be quite a day of reckoning when more delivery is demanded than they can fill.


And I see the possibility of that within five years. Juggle numbers all you want, but when the users, not just speculators, need x million ounces to continue their operations, paper silver won't cut it.
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Freedom's Avatar
United States
526 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2012  12:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Freedom to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
This is my thought process on PM pricing. Every month I buy at least $200 dollars of silver/gold/whatever. It can take the form of Peace/Morgan dollars, Quarter Eagles, ASE's and even silver Proof Sets. I just don't care as long as it contains a PM. I have fifteen years until I retire, that hoard should be quite large by then and it will supplement my retirement, SS and my pension.

I prefer coins over actual bullion in the belief that if PM's do fall, the coins would retain some numismatic value
instead of just falling bullion prices.

That is my take on PM's. With that said, If it catches my eye, it goes on my want list
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2012  7:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Juggle numbers all you want, but when the users, not just speculators, need x million ounces to continue their operations, paper silver won't cut it.

Right on, Fredd! Paper silver is not: 1) the most electrically conductive metal known to man; 2) it isn't the most light reflective metal known to man; and 3) it won't make any of those new comm circuits, super weapons, or photo-voltaic cells. So much for paper!

When the big silver users have to bid against each other for what little supply remains, THAT is when we will find the true value of silver. Heck, for the right bribe, er, price, I might even sell MY silver!
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