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VAM Rarity Question

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Pillar of the Community
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 Posted 08/04/2010  1:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
you've come a long way

Thanks xshift, I appreciate the kind words, but I am not so sure that I have come anywhere. It feels to me as though I just travel in circles, perpetual deja vu.

As we all have an angel and a devil perched on either shoulder, I try to brush my devil off, but she remains. I shall continue to try to adjust my attitude and diminish my brashness.
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twohawks's Avatar
United States
1551 Posts
 Posted 08/04/2010  5:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add twohawks to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Zee do not change ...well much! people that like you for who you are.... are real. No one here is prefect, it is the imperfections in ourselves that make us who we are. And people that except us for what we are...... are known as friends
Edited by twohawks
08/04/2010 5:58 pm
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xshift's Avatar
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2669 Posts
 Posted 08/04/2010  6:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add xshift to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
it is the imperfections in ourselves that make us who we are.




It's how we handle our imperfections that helps us not to change, but to grow.

I've done plenty of growing.. and still have a LOT left to do!
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aladinslamp's Avatar
United States
3076 Posts
 Posted 08/05/2010  01:57 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add aladinslamp to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
if the "devils in the details", then I'm sue we all have the angel and devil on each shoulder...its for us to listen and decide which one favors the real truth...we have all learned more from today's talk than we did from yesterdays thoughts..
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remmy1100's Avatar
United States
380 Posts
 Posted 08/10/2010  2:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add remmy1100 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you want to know of a change to the I/R numbers... Just recently the 1923-P VAM-1C "Tail on O" was changed by Leroy from I2-R5 to I4-R6 This was done after I found a collar clashed version of the 1C. Leroy took it upon himself to reanalyze the listing and updated it to IMO a more realistic number. So yes, they do in fact change. Is this done all the time? No. But it does happen.
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aladinslamp's Avatar
United States
3076 Posts
 Posted 08/10/2010  10:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add aladinslamp to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hi Remmey, I think the original thought was........IN general, all of the are factor ratings need to be upgraded to resolve the known discrepancies.. That fact is ever more evident as each post is listed..yet the are ratings have not been addressed...Could there be a separate post to include the listings are ratings, that are not correct? Yes there could be, but no attempt has been made for the general
PUBLIC to know or be advised of the insider knowledge, that is hinted at from time to time..AND AS WELL as there are times when an R3 coin has less than 20 known for that particular VAM....yet no update..
I think the LONG term idea is to basically ignore the are factor..
As its based upon SUBJECTION.....of a given die and effects upon it.
Such as a clash or die breaks....that it WOULD only be in production for a short time....THEREFORE limiting the numbers of that VAM we would see in the surviving population...

this is only true for the vams that have been EXTENSIVELY STUDIED OR COLLECTED.......many years have few listings..and many more have even few pictures to help attribution.......Thats another story.
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remmy1100's Avatar
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380 Posts
 Posted 08/11/2010  10:40 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add remmy1100 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I understand, I was just answering Lou on her "I would like to hear of some of these examples of rarity scale changes that have occurred, because I am aware of none." statement from page 1.
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 Posted 08/15/2010  09:32 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks Remmy. Page one was about 11 months ago, and I have learned much since then. The update that you mention makes two or three now that I have now heard of. Still, I might wonder what makes some varieties worthy of an update among the sea of vams?

I still hold my original thoughts on rarity factors though. The rarity factors are pointless and meaningless. They were when they were created and they remain so today. How can anyone support this sort of wild guessing as having any value, by saying stuff like it was a best guess at the time of discovery, and most of these guesses have turned out to be pretty accurate? Just how does anybody know if these guesses were even the slightest bit accurate or not? Nobody has even a good guess as to how many 1878 vam-9 there are floating around, and it well could be the most researched and sought after VAM of all.

Do vammers hold in high regard a variety that is listed as an R-7 based solely on that designation? Probably not, the coin would most likely have to have something else going for it besides the R-7 thing. To someone new to vamming, though, that R-7 is the focal point of the coin.
I have often wondered why vams required a rarity scale that differed from the Sheldon scale used on virtually all other US coins?

R-1 = Common (Tens of Millions)
R-2 = Not so Common (Several Million)
R-3 = Scarce (Hundreds of Thousands)
R-4 = Very Scarce (Tens of Thousands)
R-5 = Rare (Several Thousand)
R-6 = Very Rare (Several Hundred)
R-7 = Extremely Rare (Few Tens)
R-8 = Unique or Nearly Unique (Several)

Unique means 'ONE'. There is no other definition that would carry up to 'few tens' (whatever 'that' is supposed to mean anyway).
The vagueness of the wording coupled with the gray area between the designations could mean many things to many people.

What is the difference between "R-3 Hundreds of Thousands" and "R-4 Several Million" or between "R-7 Few Tens" and "R-6 Several Hundred" ?

Just what do terms and words like "few, nearly, several, tens of, hundreds of" actually mean? How about "scarce, and rare" ?

I can only speculate on the original intent of all of this gibberish, but today, it boils down to a tool of deception for unscrupulous sellers to take advantage of.
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 Posted 08/15/2010  2:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't normally watch TV , but when I do, I prefer TV Land or old black & white movies. Anyway, I saw a couple of commercials today that left tears running down my cheeks and there is no one here to tell it to, except you guys.

The first one was a GIECO ad about the little piggy who cried "wee wee wee" all the way home.

The other one was a Direct TV ad about this Russian guy who surrounds himself gold and the best of everything and has a miniature giraffe that he kisses. (I like the guy's accent).

Please check out these commercials if you have the opportunity. (Maybe I am just too easily amused).

I know there was nothing coin related there, please forgive me.
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twohawks's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 08/16/2010  02:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add twohawks to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The TV Russian is funny " I HAS IT! " lol
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 Posted 08/16/2010  09:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You're my kinda guy Russ
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Ozland's Avatar
United States
709 Posts
 Posted 08/16/2010  11:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozland to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are two types of rarity when you are discussing vams. The are (rarity) factor is relative rarity. Relative to what? Relative to how many are found. Say a coin is given an R-6 rating by Leroy Van Allen. R-6 is very rare, (estimated) several hundred extant. The rating is nothing more than an insightful guess. Unless a coin is near terminal, or terminal die state, expect an R-5 rating. Then there is conditional rarity. This refers to grade. Obviously a mint state (MS) 65 grade wise is better than and extra fine (XF)45 and is priced accordingly.

Example, A top 100 coin, a 1887-O VAM 22 A pitted reverse is a very difficult coin to locate in any grade, but especially so in mint state condition. Furthermore, this issue of conditional rarity is further complicated by die state. Early die state (EDS), mid die state (MDS) Late die state (LDS) ultra late die state (ULDS) which some refer to as near terminal die state and if it is really cracked up terminal die state.

So continuing with the 1887-O VAM 22A, which is harder to find? And early die state example or ones like you see in the top 100 book plate photo?

I will answer these, but I would like to see some discussion on this question. The answers will add a lot of clarity to the discussion.
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 Posted 08/16/2010  12:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I understand what you are saying Terry, (I really do). I intuitively perceive truth and sincerity in your words.

You know that I always try to tie things together, a correlation of the relativity thing, and my subliminal stab at all of this was my deep rooted disgust for the insincerity and deceptiveness of certain dealers who asked the questions a year ago on another forum of 'how can we attract new and younger folks into vamming?' So noble, so thoughtful were their efforts to draw young folks to a relatively new and exciting hobby for the good of all.

Horsepucky....These were attempts to lure suckers in so they could sell high dollar R-7s to the ignorant who would find out the hard way that an R-7 VAM is not an R-7 coin. I was asked a week or two ago this same question; 'how can we attract new and younger folks into vamming?' I am still steaming over it.

My main thing is this (to be blunt):

CBH are reviewed by a group of experts (Nuts) every few years, to ensure transparency and accuracy of these rarity ratings. Other denominations are dealt with likewise. Now I fully understand that doing this with vams is virtually impossible, due to the sheer number of varieties. A person's guess then, is touted as fact to the potential newbie. Is this any way to treat anyone you are trying to nurture into vamming? If the rarity ratings are not accurate, they should be eliminated until such time as they can be made accurate.

Vamming is (IMO), a floundering hobby, and it is not the collector like yourself or Alan that causes it to be so. The dealers that exploit the rarity factors to the new and unsuspecting are the very ones who stifle growth in the hobby.
Okay, I have vented now my displeasure with the attempt to gain my support in luring in the innocent for the sole interest of profit from them.

I think that I do understand the conditional rarity thing, although it is not as well publicized.

1878 vam-9 is not a rare coin, but in uncirculated condition is certainly is, because it circulated. 1903-O regardless of variety is not a rare coin in uncirculated condition because they sat in vaults their entire lives immediately after striking. They would be much scarcer in circulated condition.

Some vams are scarcer in EDS than LDS and visa versa depending on just when the particular dies developed clashes, breaks, etc.

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 Posted 08/16/2010  1:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't know the first thing about 1887-O VAM 22A, but since you mentioned it, I am now interested, and will wait to hear more about it and its different stages.
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Ozland's Avatar
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709 Posts
 Posted 08/16/2010  1:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozland to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Zee, I see the hypocrisy in the hobby, but that hypocrisy is rampant outside of the hobby as well. We live in a pluralistic society, (groups among other groups competing for power). It is a facet of our everyday lives many accept without question. So it is with vamming.

The intent of Leroy Van Allen and A. George Mallis by assigning are (rarity factors) and I (interest factors) was a good faith attempt to quantify vams. The sheer number of varieties and the inability to know how many of a particular VAM there are makes any additional quantifying a difficult and problematic undertaking. Knowledge is dynamic especially with the advent of the internet. Some knowledge particulary pick up points (PUP'S) will not be made available due to the competitive nature of the individuals involved and to the profit motive that drives it.

As I stated earlier, are factors are 'relative rarity' complicated further by conditional rarity.

The 1887-O has been a top 100 coin for thirteen years. It is highly sought after and it is rare. It is a major rarity in mint state condition. PCGS has 9 in mint state 62 with three graded higher. All three higher are mint state 63.

Recently, there was a revision in the listing as a specimen was shown to Leroy Van Allen that did not have as much pitting on the reverse as the plate photo. 1887-O VAM 22 is difficult to locate. VAM 22 only becomes VAM 22 A with the pitting on the reverse. So now there is an early die state (EDS)version of VAM 22A. PCGS calls this specimen a 'minor variety'. So this coin, the revision coin is (so far) the only one located in thirteen years and it is listed as a 'minor variety'.

This is why relative rarity and conditional rarity are so important. Only time will tell. If no other specimens are found, then the EDS is 'likely' an ultra rarity. However, if it does not belong to any of the major players who influence the listings, then the coin might as well have an asterisk beside it, as it becomes noncollectable.

Please understand, third party grading companies only came only came about as there was rampant doctoring of coins. Coins were cleaned, whizzed, altered, artificially toned and on top of that routinely over hyped. That same 'over hype' is with us in vamming.
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