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The 1909-S VDB Is Not The True Key Date Of The LWC Series (Data Analysis)

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 Posted 09/22/2020  6:13 pm  Show Profile   Check GrapeCollects's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add GrapeCollects to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
our experience in a coin shop may bias you by exposing you to relatively more slabbed coins, but I suspect there are lots of raw coins out there in collections


Quite possible, actually, very probable.


Quote:
Actually the key date is the 1926-S in Red. And if you really want to get technical find a 1926-S in Red AND full details. The 1926-D is a close second. The 1923/4/5-S in Full details Red are no slouches either.


True. Though my overall point was less about conditional rarity then number of overall survivors.
My best finds: 1999-WAM:http://goccf.com/t/332161 1988-RDV-6:http://goccf.com/t/335954#2873459 1986-Off-center: http://goccf.com/t/335952
1999 WAM #2:http://goccf.com/t/338710&whichpage=1
1981 Double Struck In Collar: http://goccf.com/t/350199&whichpage=1
ANA id: 3194067
My Type Set: https://www.NGCcoin.com/registry/co...sets/236574/
If you want to buy something or sell something or just talk, shoot me a PM!
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 Posted 09/22/2020  9:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add suipakpaikungfu to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm going to guess the pop for the 09-S VDB is 100,000 +.
This is very interesting! I have some communications out
to some of the experts in the field for their opinions on
the total pop of these. I will post any replies.
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 Posted 09/22/2020  10:08 pm  Show Profile   Check spruett001's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add spruett001 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
For what it's worth, here are just the ANACS populations in all grades:

1909-S VDB - 13,721

1914-D - 10,092

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 Posted 09/22/2020  10:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Greasy Fingers to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
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 Posted 09/23/2020  09:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MathMan27 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I really liked this analysis. Thanks for posting (and if you post more of them for US coins I would be interested in reading them). I also agree with Pacificoin, in that the 1909-S VDB cent is "similar" to the 1948 CDN silver dollar in that it is a "money coin".
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 Posted 09/23/2020  1:38 pm  Show Profile   Check GrapeCollects's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add GrapeCollects to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
For what it's worth, here are just the ANACS populations in all grades:

1909-S VDB - 13,721

1914-D - 10,092


Wow. That's actually very interesting. That alone changes the survival %. That means around 1% more of the initial mintage of the 09-S VDB exist than in my initial estimate. For the 14-D that'd add around .7% to the total pop.

Thanks for the info spruett!

My best finds: 1999-WAM:http://goccf.com/t/332161 1988-RDV-6:http://goccf.com/t/335954#2873459 1986-Off-center: http://goccf.com/t/335952
1999 WAM #2:http://goccf.com/t/338710&whichpage=1
1981 Double Struck In Collar: http://goccf.com/t/350199&whichpage=1
ANA id: 3194067
My Type Set: https://www.NGCcoin.com/registry/co...sets/236574/
If you want to buy something or sell something or just talk, shoot me a PM!
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 Posted 09/23/2020  6:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ballyhoo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Alright. I'll add my two cents. I think a real contender would be the next lowest mintage, the 1931s. With a mintage of 866,000, nearly double the 1909s VDB, PCGS totals in MS grades (BN, RB and RD) total 9451 vs. 19,671. About equal, but just under the '09. We also need to consider the popularity of the 1909 as being highly collectible by collector and non alike. The 1931? Few if any in the general public put these aside, so the survival numbers are less. That the U.S. was in the midst of the Great Depression also needs to be factored in. So all things being equal, and covering all grades, the 1931 s is lower.
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 Posted 09/23/2020  7:07 pm  Show Profile   Check Pacificoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Pacificoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Most pieces of the1931 S Lincoln Cent remained unissued until 1935
at which time dealers and speculators were waiting to scoop them up
by the roll and the bag from the Federal Reserve in San Francisco.
Due to this unusual pattern of distribution, 1931-S cents
are fairly plentiful in Mint State while being rare in worn condition.
That is why the average grade of a 1931 S is EF or better .
I will bet well over 80 per cent of the original Mintage still exists.
The coin is hardly scarce!
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 Posted 09/24/2020  10:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


I've found at coin shows massive amounts of either the 09S VDB and the 14D. I had more problems finding ones like the 24D in MS grades.
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 Posted 09/24/2020  4:28 pm  Show Profile   Check BadThad's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BadThad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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Just carl and his Lincolns...




The 1920's branch mint coins are scarce in high grades, and even RARER with full details. Much harder to find these than the SVDB. I was VERY lucky to find this on ebay.



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Edited by BadThad
09/24/2020 4:29 pm
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 Posted 09/26/2020  12:57 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CelticKnot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
This has been a fantastic read.

Anyone have an idea why the survival rate of 1914-D's is so low?
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 Posted 09/26/2020  02:24 am  Show Profile   Check GrapeCollects's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add GrapeCollects to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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I had more problems finding ones like the 24D in MS grades.


Quote:
The 1920's branch mint coins are scarce in high grades, and even RARER with full details.

Well that's true. There are more "key" coins in terms of conditional rarity, but my main point with this thread was survival rates and initial mintages.


Quote:
Anyone have an idea why the survival rate of 1914-D's is so low?


No idea myself. Maybe someone else does though.


Quote:
if you post more of them for US coins I would be interested in reading them


I appreciate that. I probably will if I find another topic that interests me and I think that should be covered assuming it hasn't already.
My best finds: 1999-WAM:http://goccf.com/t/332161 1988-RDV-6:http://goccf.com/t/335954#2873459 1986-Off-center: http://goccf.com/t/335952
1999 WAM #2:http://goccf.com/t/338710&whichpage=1
1981 Double Struck In Collar: http://goccf.com/t/350199&whichpage=1
ANA id: 3194067
My Type Set: https://www.NGCcoin.com/registry/co...sets/236574/
If you want to buy something or sell something or just talk, shoot me a PM!
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 Posted 09/26/2020  1:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KenKat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The 1920's branch mint coins are scarce in high grades, and even RARER with full details. Much harder to find these than the SVDB. I was VERY lucky to find this on ebay.


No question about it. I spent forever looking for a 24-D in uncirculated. Finally found an NGC 63RB after a long search - your's is even a nicer example.

The 24-D was the third most expensive coin in my set, behind the 15-S and 09-S VDB (all in MS63RB).

I can't bring myself to pay up for a 14-D in an uncirculated grade with some red - too rich for my blood - talking mid 4 figures. I have a VG10 in that slot, the only brown coin in my set. Probably going to stay that way unless I win a lottery.
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 Posted 10/02/2020  10:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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Anyone have an idea why the survival rate of 1914-D's is so low?

My understanding is that the 1909-S VDB and 1931-S Lincoln cents were known to be lower mintage coins at the time they were struck/released but the 1914-D was not originally recognized as a low-mintage coin.

So, collectors and dealers were able to stockpile the 1909-S and 1931-S coins which led to their high survival rates. The 1914-D did not benefit from the same initial "hoarding" and so fewer survived.

Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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