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 Replies: 18 / Views: 2,649 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1372 Posts |
Without waxing politically ... because despite what you percieve as the reason for it, you can't do anything to change it. "It is what it is"....so we won't even go there.
What I think ... is that items of numismatic interest will lose value over the next decade, while bullion will be what holds its value, and even gains a bit, relative to the fiat dollar.
Gen-Xers, for the most part, don't have the "collecting" gene that us boomers and late boomers seem to have. That's one factor.
I think the economy we are in is the "new normal". I believe we're looking at, at the very least, a "lost decade". All of the other bubbles have "burst". There's only the credit bubble left. Once the credit bubble bursts ... the stackers will have the upper hand over collectors of high dollar numismatic material.
Lots of dealers are "dealing" like they're running from a burning building. I think they agree with my assessment of the whole mess, and "something" now ... is twice as good as "nothing" later.
I don't put huge money into anything, and I like what I've bought. Still, it may become a challenge to remain upbeat about the numismatic purchases if and when the wheels "do" fall off of the whole thing.
Funny thing is we never learn from our mistakes. The "hard times" tokens were issued a century before the great depression, after a period of "easy money" ... "want credit, come and get it" owed to "manifest destiny" and westward expansion. We were plunged into a depression.
Flash forward ... October 1929 ... another depression following "giddy good times"....and another "lost decade" and more.
I'm hard headed though, and am still buying some coins, while the wife is more interested in storing rice and beans.
Chance Edited by Chancellor Sutler
08/13/2012 08:58 am
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
The future of my collection has been mapped out for some time now, and I have already taken the first steps in executing my plan. My current collection had its beginnings when we were married in 1976. At that time I started my collection of with an ancient coin: A Roman gold Aureus of Vespasian, which came from a leading ancients dealer in London. I have acquired a huge variation in World coinage since then including an inheritance of about 200 proof silver and a few proof gold coins covering the period 1988 1995, from my mother. My collection includes about 8 or 9 gold coins from differing cultures, that would be over 1,000 years old. It covers World coins, from the invention of coinage up until 1950, when silver gradually dissapeared from circulating coinage. My mother said if I needed the money from her coins, I would be free to sell them. As it turns out, I don't need the money, but my kids do. In this regard, the inherited coins have been already given to my kids for them to keep or sell, as they wish. Over the next year or so, I will be releasing some of by World collection to public auction, the proceeds to be also given to my kids. A few of my more treasured ancients will be held for a year or so longer before they will be auctioned off as well. That puts me in a position to sell my house to move into a much more humble one, and I will not have to worry about the security of my collection quite so much. I will NOT be selling any of my 150 or so books. They are the tools of trade for a coin collector. I will continue to remain a very active collector. I cannot help that. It is part of who I am. I will in future aim to collect coins of much lower numismatic value, but that have some peculiar numismatic interest to me. It hat taken me decades to build a highly interesting collection which illustrates the development of coinage since it's invention. By taking two or three years to dispose of my collection in a rational way, I expect I will have a lot of fun doing so. In this process, by executing the terms of my Will myself BEFORE I die, I will be able to avoid the collection being dumped on the market by executors who would not understand how to extract full value from it. |
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
2624 Posts |
I would kill to sift through your collection Sel, I am sure it contains something for everyone!
I never intend to part with my collection...I want to hand it down one day (if I reproduce which I give about a 60% likelyhood to)
This intention means I don't really consider what it will be worth in future time...I collect simply what I like but do consider that some items may creep out of my price range or become more affordable. I can only forsee me adding 20 notes maximum to my notes collection (and then just staying up to date with withdrawels from British circulation) I wish to aquire some ancients, a modest amount more silver and if times turn good again some more gold. Who knows what my future may bring...if I won the lottery I could collect considerably more, if times are hard then my collection will virtually stall.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
To many people worry about the future and even the close present of their coins. At one time so many collected Stamps, Hot Wheel cars, Sporting Cards and those famous Beanie Babies. Yes those all sort of crashed in value. When the auto makers stopped making convertibles in the late 70's, the prices of the existing ones sky rocketed. Then they started making them again and the prices on those too crashed. This happens to many, many items and if you choose to use those type of things as an investment, then it's like the stock market.
The thing to remember is a hobby, any hobby, is supposed to be for FUN. A thing to do when you want to relax, take the burden of today off. And in some instances, get away from the wife, or husband and/or the kids. For some reason coins and similar items have been a collecting type hobby for possibly many hundreds of years.
Why just ask any kid that collects coins if he is worried about their value in the next hundred years.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1372 Posts |
Well, I don't know about you, but I'm not a kid anymore. The promise of social security is a hollow one. Our sage leaders "invested" the money they've been taking from a couple generations of dutiful citizens, so now an ever shrinking workforce is supporting an ever burgeoning pool of retirees. They say it's solvent for what 18 years? I say give it 3 or 4 more, and it's done. It's the biggest ponzi scheme ever. It didn't start that way, but that's where it is now.
The point of my post ... is simply to say, investment in coins for the long term could be wise, or it could be foolish, depending on your "vision". "Shorting" the numismatic end of the market in this economic climate is probably the only thing that makes any sense at all unless you've specifically set out to lose money.
Stacking seems a safer investment to me, particularly silver, which has industrial uses.
Chance
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Pillar of the Community
Thailand
1509 Posts |
I always take the overall optimistic view.
So, I die with no obvious person to inherit my collection (there's time yet and I would love this outcome but...).
Worst case scenario? The collection gets sold for a fraction of its value but would, by one way or another, end up in general circulation for other (hopefully up and coming) collectors.
As in the wonderful lyrics of one of the songs just used to close the London Olympics..."Always look on the bright dide of life (or death) Da-da, Da-Da, Da-da..."
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1436 Posts |
Wow, so seriously somber. Relax & enjoy your collection while you can. No one know exactly what the future holds, and no one can take it with them when they die. Have a plan, document what you have, and make sure those who you want to leave it to actually want it.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
863 Posts |
I love collecting but I try to only buy for spot. Hopefully one day it will turn a profit.
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Valued Member
United States
54 Posts |
I think there may be a different reason you may be seeing dealers dealing in a big way. They have to buy and sell to make money. If they aren't churning they aren't making money.
With people being afraid the sky is falling spending on non-essentials drops off a lot. But since I don't think the sky is falling I look at times like this as a perfect buying opportunity.
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Valued Member
Canada
491 Posts |
@Just Carl I like your views on collecting. My grandad had collected a few coins, sometimes wonder if he had any idea of what he was doing, but his small collection showed a lack of variety in available supply and a general interest in the hobby.
@jpo Looking at the variety of coins and medallions out there is what I find interesting. Not so much the buying and holding. We all have different things we like to spend money on and will still do so even if there isn't so much cash around. I could spend my money on beer and fishing reels, so in the end its something to be taken lightly and with disposable income.
As a teenager I was inclined towards coins but never collected any although the interest was there. Nowadays there are people that are interested but they aren't there yet. Most people think that you need a lot of money to do it, as well as having no idea of what kind of coins are out there.
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Moderator
 United States
187862 Posts |
Quote:
Gen-Xers, for the most part, don't have the "collecting" gene that us boomers and late boomers seem to have As a member of Generation X, I am offended!  The real problem is those darn Millennials!  Quote:
investment in coins for the long term could be wise, or it could be foolish, Definitely not wise, and foolish is debatable. I have never treated my collection as an investment, retirement nest egg, or rainy day fund. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
My Father and his brother my Uncle collected all denomination coins just of the US, Some Canadian and European coins. They both sold off their collections years ago for one reason or another. I on the other hand just collected air. Breath in breath out, lol. About a year ago my Son got interested in Morgan and Peace dollars. I started to get interested but there is a lot going on with the Morgans, and they can be a bit pricey. I decided to zero in on Cents. Lincoln mostley but I intend on expanding that to all Cents Us and Foreign.For right now my collecting is just for the search and find. Since I am unemployeed it is a bit tough to buy anything, so I am just going with the chance of the draw. I am learning a lot about LMCs so I find it fun for now.I do take collecting seriously, and want to know what I am doing ,so I come here every day to see what new things people find and I learn from that! As for this being for my retirement ,or what ever, not so much. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
759 Posts |
I wish I could disagree with you, Chance, but I certainly can't, not in total. I've achieved my 2 lifelong goals of a type set via a 7070 and a gold type set from the Classic Heads. I have no desire to upgrade and I'll add some bullion from time to time. About the only thing left on my "coin bucket list" might be a CC gold piece. When I can no longer read the date on a Half Dime someday, that will be the sign to start divvying things up between my 6 and 9 year olds with the option to rescind said gifts if needed to buy food. :) |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts |
Coin collecting is a hobby, way too many people think it is an investment! You have to have deep pockets for it to be one. Stacking bullion IMHO is not much of an investment, although if you buy and sell bullion regularily you can make a few bucks.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1372 Posts |
I guess much of this depends on where you sit. For me...the sky is indeed falling. I build and (used to) sell items that are not necessities. I used to do a brisk trade, but ... as an example, we are halfway through August, and I have had but one sale. For me, anytime I spend money on anything that doesn't end up in the toilet, it "is" an investment. The easy answer is "get a job" ... wrong, because there are no jobs here. There is no industry at all. The message in the post is going to be viewed by those unaffected by this economy as "balderdash" ... but for those who may not be so well heeled, or perhaps well employed, it's a simple bit of advice. Unless you short the market, the long term investment potential of numismatic materisl is dismal. You're probably better off to collect rolls of 1964 Roosevelt dimes than rare coins if you consider it an investment at all. Chance |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
526 Posts |
I consider myself one of the lucky ones in this economy/recession. I still have my job of 10 years, the downside is I have not seen a pay raise in five and have lost almost 10% of my salary level from five years ago as a take away in order for no layoffs to occur. We are able to make ends meet which I thank God for everyday. I am also a collector of coins and a stacker of Bullion. I have one small window a month where I must decide if I want bullion or a coin to go towards my Peace dollar collection. It is very difficult just to survive in todays new world let alone keep up with a hobby that some may view as "Balderdash". I do have a comfort level of knowing I can always sell anytime I desire/need. I am going to continue growing my collection as I enjoy the hunt, possible profits and the beauty in some of our classic coins. |
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Replies: 18 / Views: 2,649 |
Posted 08/13/2012 10:33 am
