What Happens To

Sadly yes they will be

The numismatic value of a coin typically doesn't increase with the price of the melt value

At first yes common commemoratives will be viewed as a melt value but over time they will eventually hold some premium over spot. In a situation like that you may be able to acquire some semi keys for spot value.

Yupe!

I agree with Jbuck. Everything we consider junk silver today once held a numismatic premium until the price of silver over took it. The higher end commems arent really in danger any time soon (assuming disaster doesn't strike and silver skyrockets) but if silver hit 70 or 80 an ounce the vast majority of modern commems would just be considered bullion. Some of the rarer ones may keep a premium but every coin has a point where it will get over taken by melt value. It might not happen right away or even if the price just hit there as a spike, but if that became the new silver price it wouldnt be long until thats what they were viewed as.

Now that doesn't mean that the commems would be worthless or dead, plenty of people collect or stack bullion without sending them off to the smelter

It wont matter one bit. Silver hits $100.00 then classic coins will hit the melters pot by the tens of thousands.
Most folks that own a box full of coins they got from uncle eddy A few years ago dont give a hoot about numismatic value. If a dealer telles them there 1921 VF Walker half is worth say 36.50 in melt while Uncle eddy had a 14.75 tag on the coin. Well guess what into the pot.
I ahve a friend thats a dealer last time silver got high he was buying around 20,000 oz. a day. and the all went to the smelter he didnt look through any just boxed em up an sold them to the highest bidder for melting.
Slabbed coins he wont buy unless you take a haammer to the slab then its melt value thats it.
One day the coins that are held will be worth a lot of money. That is unless the goverment decides to recall all silver coinage at face value. hhhmmmm

barryg I used to collect when silver was $4 an ounce ( I started buying silver rounds at that price it was the first thing I collected) and Morgans were about $20 back then, I should go dig out my 2002 Red Book.

I think Morgans have the older coin appeal going for them too. Many people, myself included like the idea of coin that gorgeous that is over a 100 years old. I also like to buy slightly worn ones and wonder how they might have been used like in an old school game of poker in the old west, it gives them an added value.

I like modern commemoratives and did just start a modern commemorative dollar set but still old coins like the morgans or Trade dollars or Seated Liberty dollars just have that appeal to them the moderns don't.

But yea really nice Morgans have always had a price a little higher than melt. The last Morgan I bought before my last great purge was an MS62 for $26 and I bought a Silver Eagle at the time too and that cost me $10 so I am guessing spot at the time was around $8-10 (I wish I had kept my records from back in 1999-2003 before I sold all my coins for college be fun to see what I spent back then). A MS61 cost me $50 just a few weeks ago.

To answer the question, I think there needs to be a distinction made between higher-end mint state commemoratives of the classic series and the coins of today's modern series.

As nickelsearcher discussed, his high-end set of classic commemoratives is most definitely immune to the spot price of silver. A move of the spot price of silver from mid-$30s to $100 will never create a situation where his coins are traded based on the value of the silver they contain.

At $100 per ounce, a classic commemorative half-dollar will contain about $36 in silver. For high-end coins that currently sell for several hundred to several thousand dollars a piece, $35 dollars in silver melt value will barely move the needle on their market price.

On the other hand, it's a different story for most modern US commemoratives. The selling prices of a good number of the modern issues are already notably influenced by the spot silver (or gold) price and so an increase in the value of the silver they contain will drive their prices up accordingly. For the coins that currently carry a numismatic premium over melt value, I believe they will continue to do so as the price of silver rises. I don't think sweeping generalizations apply for this series; the coins will need to be assessed individually because of the significant differences in mintages among the issues.

Just my thoughts...