| Author |
Replies: 19 / Views: 1,830 |
|
New Member
United States
15 Posts |
Hello everyone! I just stopped by at my local coin dealer and he had a beautiful rack of ms63 NGC graded $5 half eagles (no key dates) He was selling them $700 a piece. I bought the earliest (and best looking) one he had. It was an 1881P. I just looked at the mintages and see 5million+ were minted  I'm pretty confused, should I not have bought it due to such a high mintage compared to some of the others as low as 1million mintages, or are they equally as rare in MS63 grade. They all costed the same, but some had 1/5 the numbers! If they are equally as rare in MS63 grade, what caused this? Any help would be appreciated with justification, thanks a lot! Edited by PH1221 02/25/2013 10:02 pm
|
|
|
|
Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
Welcome to Coin Community, PH1221. Given that the Mint produced quantities by specific order - related to what was perceived as actual demand - I'd think it safe to assume that generally, larger mintages circulated more. So, also generally, the numbers of survivors in Mint State tended to be roughly equal, at least enough so that prices at MS63 pretty much equalize for the higher mintages (a million or more). Either way, that's a nice price for the coin and if it was the best of them, you've done well.  Now, if it were an 1889, you'd want to be buying champagne. 
|
|
New Member
 United States
15 Posts |
Thanks Dave !
Was worried that the other coins would eventually become more valuable rare dates and have this poor 1881 stay at the bottom , LOL.
So the MS-63 numbers would be close to equal? I did not know that the mint produced by specific order...
So generally, there would be also much more circulated 1881 P's than circulated 1881 S's per say, yet they generally equal out in mint state condition?
Is that correct?
Thanks!
|
|
Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
Quote: So generally, there would be also much more circulated 1881 P's than circulated 1881 S's per say, yet they generally equal out in mint state condition? Pretty much, yes, but that will of course change with much lower mintages like 1881-CC for instance. You'll be lucky to find one of them at all - fewer than 100 are believed to exist and an MS63 - there's only one known - would fetch well into 5 figures. Gold coins of that day were worth the face value at their metal content. The Mint recycled them when they began to wear enough to affect the weight (therefore value). So, that recycling played into mintage numbers, as well.
|
|
New Member
 United States
15 Posts |
Thanks Dave,
Was getting nervous and was going to exchange it for a lower mintage date.
So now I understand, with greater quantity = greater circulated specimens = less MS specimens. With less high mintages = less circulated specimens = more MS specimens.
Canceling and usually equaling each other out. (assuming they are both higher mintages in general)
So there is no possibility of let's say an 1881S becoming a key date? Thanks !
|
|
Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
I wish we could generalize to that extent, but all theories are out the window when it comes to lower mintages. I was kinda expounding only on the largest-mintage issues, figuring there's a (rough) "saturation" point at which as many people who were going to save one in Mint State, had done so. I was actually a little surprised at seeing such commonality of pricing among issues of a million or more - considering that pricing represents a substantial premium over the actual melt value.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
 You got a very fair price. MS63 Half Eagles have lost much of the premium they had a few years ago. These were bringing close to $1,000 at one time. Common dates like your 1881 G$5 trade as commodities in precious metal and numismatic markets. That is a good thing for most people as it makes them very liquid. While it won't ever be a key date, the more important factor is having an solid 63 with eye appeal. MS63s ran the gamut from ugly and dull to beautiful and lustrous. Buying the best looking one as you did was a good move.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1195 Posts |
 If you like the way the coin looks, don't worry about over paying too much.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
9792 Posts |
Yes  I wouldn't worry, I think the dollar will weaken still and gold will only move up over the next few years. You won't make a ton on return for a year or so, but if gold really jumps older collectable numismatic issues will usually appreciate faster than modern bullion issued coins.
"Buy the Book Before You Buy the Coin" - Aaron R. Feldman - "And read it" - Me 2013! ANA Life Member #3288 in good standing since 1981, ANS, Early American Coppers Member (EAC), Colonial Coin Collectors Club member (C4), Conder Token Collector Club member (CTCC), Civil War Token Society (CWTS) member, Liberty Seated Collectors Club (LSCC) & Numismatic Bibliomania Society member (NBS), USMex, Member in good standing, 2¢ variety collector. See my want page: http://goccf.com/t/140440
|
|
New Member
 United States
15 Posts |
So something like a 81S which was also selling--will that have a chance to become a key date?
Do they MS63 grades truly even out for the most part? Thanks
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
these coins do not circulate any longer so chances are a MS-63 today will still be a MS-63 next year. The ones that are key dates will always be key dates and chances are the common dates will always be common, so the 1881-S will probably never be considered a key date even if the mintage is a little less than some of the other common dates of the type. The common coins of this type usually follow along side with spot in value so If you purchased the best looking MS-63 from all the common date coins at the same price you did the right thing because eye appeal will add a little value over a worst looking coin in the same grade
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
6384 Posts |
You should be aware that there are statistics about the number of coins that exist at the different grade levels, called population reports. It is often the case that two different dates with similar mintages have very different survival rates and in such cases the population reports will show that difference. The mintage numbers also factor in, with lower mintage totals generally (but not always) translating to lower population numbers.
Do you have a list of all the MS-63 dates that your dealer was offering? A cross-check against the pop reports might pinpoint which of those would be better choices in terms of potential price appreciation.
By the way, based on mintages alone I'd definitely pick the 1881-S over the 1881-P, assuming both have similar eye appeal.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
36744 Posts |
I would pick the coin with the nicest eye appeal and worry less about the mintage.
|
|
New Member
 United States
15 Posts |
Thanks guys! Jaobler (or any one else) can you show me these "population reports" on half eagles of MS63? The 1881-S was indeed there for $700, but it had copper spottings and a small scratch. This was definitely the best looker, and I hope they are on equal terms in MS-63 than these other coins. Any help is appreciated! ANOTHER QUESTION: Why is the 1902 half eagle, for example, with only 172k mintages, worth so little? (worth the same as very high mintages) http://www.coinfacts.com/half_eagle...lf_eagle.htm
|
|
New Member
 United States
15 Posts |
I checked PCGS & NGC price guide (not population) and yes ! The 1881 was not the lowest for ms63, some lower.
Any care to share their population report on 1881 to 1906 $5 ms63 grade?
Thanks.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
If you have Excel I can e-mail you some info. A lower Pop Report number will not necessarily make a coin more valuable. All of the common dates (and there's a lot of them) will be priced and valued very close to one another.
|
| |
Replies: 19 / Views: 1,830 |