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 Replies: 12 / Views: 1,319 |
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Moderator
 United States
6563 Posts |
Hey Guys!
Curious on everyone's thoughts. Coins get lost, melted, scraped, swallowed, and sunk by pirates all the time. What is a realistic guess as to the impact of time on the original mintage of a coin.
Lets use a 1909S VDB cause everyone loves and wants one of these.
Mintage: 484,000
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1031 Posts |
I've always wondered this myself. I would be interested in reading any publication or website that gives an update on current mintage based on the losses you have stated. I don't know how anyone could do this without guessing. You could figure out the number of melted coins if they keep records. You could figure the number of coins sunk if they kept records. However, it's hard to figure out how many coins have been lost, scraped, or swallowed (Ouch!).
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1091 Posts |
It would be a guess. The destruction of precious metals coins, like the rush on Silver in the sixties, would be a major factor on those numbers.
Where did all the many millions of wheat backs go?
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Moderator
 United States
6563 Posts |
You mean no one else here has swallowed a penny as a kid?  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2335 Posts |
Never swallowed a cent, but I did swallow a live 38 Special round when I was about 4.
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Valued Member
United States
376 Posts |
Look at the 1921 Morgan, a very common coin, but how many were melted in 82? It would be the first sold since they were so common and cheap at that time, so are they still common now?
I have thought about this type of things also and we have discussed it at the coin club meeting.
It is food for thought.
madspec
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
As to how many of any coin is left is just purely guesswork. Coins get lost in so many ways it is impossible to ever figure out what is left. The 1909S VDB cent is a good example though of a coin that if you had a hoard of them, you'ld never let anyone know since that could effect the price. You would slowing sell them one at a time for the best price. I heard that there is coin dealer in this area that has such a hoard of the 09S VDB's and is doing just that.
Then there is the dummies that melt down all coins for the metal as the price of metal soars. There is even web sites for bsically that. For example there is a web site called Realcent.forum.com where the primary discussions are melting coins or hoarding them.
So many ways coins are lost is fantastic. When we were kids we did so much to coins such as melting them in acid, putting on RR tracks, attempting to throw accross a river, using as targets, dropping of tall buildings, etc., etc. Then there are those that bury them for the future, put in concrete for good luck, cover with plastic for pen holders. What a tuff question.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
I think the '09-sVDB would be an atypical example because of it being a "first year of issue" coin which are usually saved in greater numbers than any other year in the life of a particular series. Same deal with 1892 Barber halves, etc. The older the coin, the more research has been done on surviving population. A ton of survivorship data has been generated for Large Cents and Half Cents. I suspect data is out there for Bust Halves in large quantities as well. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
The grading service populations (ANACS and NGC) give you some idea, especially for the highly desirable coins. I'd say that % survival of coins like commemoratives is very high (in excess of 25% of mintage); while survival of circulating coinage much lower (1% of mintage or below). Other more educated opinions on this? I've been reading the Briggs Seated quarter book recently. He mentions that the California gold rush created rarities in silver on what would appear to be common mintages. Until the weight was adjusted down in 1853, silver coinage was worth more than melt (due to falling gold price), and as a result much of the 1848-1852 silver coinage went straight from the bank to the melting pot. A similar but smaller effect was seen when the mint needed silver for the beginning of the Morgan coinage in the early-mid 1870's. "Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
The SVDB was recognized immediately upon release as being a low mintage and the vast majority of them still exist today. My guess would be in the neighborhood of 400,000. Most other coins are not so lucky. The only coins I know of where statistical analysis has been done on survival rates has been on the Half Cents and large cents and they vary from one year to the next with rates ranging from .5% to about 3%. I always figured that for most nineteenth century coins 2% is a good assumption. |
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Valued Member
United States
159 Posts |
The first year issues are generally saved in greater numbers. If you look at the values in "Coins" magazine the G price is $750 while the MS 60 price is $1500, the 1914-D ranges from $210 in G to $1900 in MS 60. It's pretty apparent that many S-VDBs were saved in higher grades. Another example is the 1883 "No Cents" nickel. The "With Cents" variety is worth more in almost every condition despite production #s three times as high.
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
2217 Posts |
When I was a kid about ten or twelve we would put coins on the railway lines to see what would happen to them after they had been pressurised. It was fun.
Really odd to melt down coins - I heard you have to have a massive amount to make a reasonable profit!
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Moderator
United States
6563 Posts |
Oh "kids" still flatten coins on the tracks. I lost all my really cool ones but I still have a nice lincoln impression on a hard drive platter.   |
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Replies: 12 / Views: 1,319 |
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Posted 04/25/2007 10:00 pm
