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Replies: 18 / Views: 2,360 |
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
616 Posts |
1) I won't bet on the end of the world because everyone loses anyway
2) I won't have put enough of my assets into Gold and Silver that I could survive better than most for a sustained period of time if the global financial system collapses
Still trying to wrap my head around why a merchant would accept gold or silver instead of barter for an item they could use if we have the type of implosion many talk about. Edited by starbuxinvestor 04/03/2013 11:04 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Agreed, if the world ends we have bigger problems anyway.
I dont believe that money would be used for quite some time in such an instance, never before has society ever been so unprepared for such an event. When you dont know where your next meal will come from you wont give up that MRE or deer you shot for a dumptruck full of gold.
Eventually itll come back into play or would if someone else stepped in and normalized things, but if there was a complete world wide collapse or disaster sending the world into chaos itd be at absolute minimum several months and more than likely years before people would be worried about money.
Edited by basebal21 04/03/2013 11:18 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2805 Posts |
People always think "things are coming to a head right now!", even hundreds of years ago. Everyone wants to see things collapse around them in their lifetimes. Gold has no use, it's just shiny. It has the inherent value of a piece of paper with a number printed on it, but people think it's more real, because it's heavy. Who knows why? It's an easy way to fit lots of money into a small space, I guess. So the heavy aspect is more important than you'd think.
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Pillar of the Community
 United Kingdom
616 Posts |
I think the only thing that will hold it's value is series 2 Lunar Dragon 1 ounce coins.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
862 Posts |
Starbuxinvestor: why lunar dragon coin?
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Pillar of the Community
 United Kingdom
616 Posts |
Because no matter what the price of silver does those stupid things don't drop in price and I want to purchase 3. But I guess the Aussie Kangaroo maybe the same.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
862 Posts |
Oh, of course. Because those dragon coins' original price were 70+, no one will sell for a loss
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Pillar of the Community
 United Kingdom
616 Posts |
Value is what someone is willing to pay.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1391 Posts |
Well, one thing about gold it that it requires the death of a star to make new gold. For what ever that is worth.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around why people don't think a merchant won't accept gold or silver instead of barter. We sure have a lot of gold or silver coins around that merchants thought were perfectly good.
Here is the thing, if we are talking zombies or whatever fantasy people have, then who cares about any sort of economy. If you are talking about an economic collapse or a governmental collapse then you are going to have to have something to fill the void. Then you are right back where our ancestors were thousands of years ago. I want to barter my apples with some guy a hundred miles over there where they have an iron mine, but his iron is ready in the spring and my apples are ready in the fall and I can't transport them those distances. If only we had some agreed upon, small and easily portable form to represent goods and services. Well, there you have it.
It doesn't take to much to figure out. I have a friend who emigrated from Russia when they were in the middle of their inflationary period in the 1990's and they were having to reissue their currency. They used gold and silver a lot, along with other metals for smaller transactions. They also used foreign currency, U.S. dollars, British Pounds, etc. The simple fact of the matter is that you just don't heard 500 cows across a city to make a large payment.
If you want to wrap your mind around it all you have to do is look up a few modern examples. They were just using commodities as a store of wealth, they were worth roughly the same amount before and after the Russian currency was revalued. I knew a girl from Bosnia and they had a similar time, although it was rougher then were my friend was in Russia. People would shoot up their house and what not. Gold, silver, foreign currency, cans of gas, bread, and unfortunately in some cases women were used as a form of exchange.
In college I had some classes with a girl from East Germany and she said a lot of the same thing was going on while they were having inflation and when the wall came down.
But yeah, people talk about the end of the world as we know it and come up with all these fancy scenarios. Most of them are bad enough that I doubt humanity would survive and so I figure what is the point? There are a lot of arm chair 'survivalists' or what ever you want to call them.
But if it is a standard collapse of a culture or a civilization, that is run of the mill stuff that humanity has been through dozens of times before. Not saying that I want to go though one but if you look at history there never really was a time when there was a power vacuum after a government collapsed. Another government, tribe, mafia, king, city state, church, city council steps in or gets formed and things go on.
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Pillar of the Community
Japan
666 Posts |
Still trying to wrap my head around why a merchant would accept gold or silver instead of barter for an item they could use if we have the type of implosion many talk about.>>>
almost 70 years ago the city of Leningrad was under blockade (WW2). People were starving to death there ...literally. Food was scarce, people were eating belts, shoes, etc. At that time one could and did easily buy food for gold. Yeah, one could barter a pair of boots for the food, but I think you know already that storing gold is much easier and cheaper than storing boots or anything one might need for barter. One could easily go to market with gold in the pocket but wearing boots could've lead to robbery. That was real example of what happened before.
Then, no one knows what will happen next ... it might be the same like happened in USSR with the collapse of the whole system. Those who had gold - did much better (when I say much I mean 1000000 times better) than those who had savings accounts, cash, etc. There were no shortage of food (some regional problems existed though) but when things started getting better those who had gold could get very nice assets for cheap.
We have precedence already in recent history and not one ... one just needs to open history text book and read ...
So, in conclusion I'd say - there are a lot of stores of value but the universal one is precious metal.
P.S. I'm buying PM, no matter where the spot is. Why? Because I don't have crystal ball and I'm not sure when the system implodes - today, tomorrow when spot for gold is $450/oz, or when spot is $15000/oz. It will be all irrelevant at the point.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: Then you are right back where our ancestors were thousands of years ago. I want to barter my apples with some guy a hundred miles over there where they have an iron mine, but his iron is ready in the spring and my apples are ready in the fall and I can't transport them those distances. If only we had some agreed upon, small and easily portable form to represent goods and services. Well, there you have it. Yes and no. The difference is our ancestors were self sufficent. Everyone could and would fend for themselves. That isn't even remotely true today. More people than not think food comes from grovery stores and wouldnt have the first idea how to get it if you couldnt buy it. Yes there was east Germany and the USSR collapse but it all depends what kind of collapse youre talking about. If you think its just the US than nothing will change much in relatively short time someone would try and colonize it or even states may just form their own countries. But if youre talking massive world wide collapse money wont do a bit of good for quite sometime. No one will sell food until a new supply of it is established. If you were on a desert island and didnt know when youd get off you wouldnt trade a boar for a cargo ship full of gold unless there were 100s more running around. The initial chaos will have to settle before anything will be sold which may be months or it may be years. Make no mistake people will be killing each other over a can of soup in such an instance. The reason being only a small percentage of people will actually be able to go into the wild and find more food or grow it. There will be 100 million plus people in the US alone with no means of getting a meal for themselves other than eating what they find. Modern society has a lot of luxuries and positives, but at the same time it leaves also means absolute chaos in a total collapse.
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Pillar of the Community
 United Kingdom
616 Posts |
Correct me if I am wrong but those are situations of localized isolated economies not the collapse of the world's major trading partner in an interconnected global economy. Still can't wrap my ahead around global commerce being conducted via PM transfer. Heck in the USSR when the Rouble was worthless outside Russia Pepsi was paid in Vodka for it's products. So there are recent examples of large scale barter also. Of course all these things depend on having a market outside the collapsed one you are in where you can deal your value store which is my point. Where are you going to have a market to migrate to if the U.S. actually was to financially collapse. We aren't Argentina. Not arguing there isn't value in precious metals just don't see it as readily as some do in true crisis. And like I originally said I won't have enough anyway. But I do own and continue to buy PMs because of their historical cycles. Feel free to think me a fool.
In 1972, the PepsiCo company struck a barter agreement with the government of the Soviet Union, in which PepsiCo was granted exportation and Western marketing rights to Stolichnaya vodka, in exchange for importation and Soviet marketing of Pepsi-Cola.[7] This exchange led to Pepsi-Cola being the first foreign product sanctioned for sale in the U.S.S.R.
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Pillar of the Community
Japan
666 Posts |
starbuxinvestor, you are right when one can barter goods produced why to use gold but when one party doesn't need that good - the only good will play the "medium of exchange" - gold
then, let's imagine US disappears ... do you think there will not be producers of grain, meat, etc etc? The path and time it takes for grain to travel from producers to consumers will be longer, but those who have something to trade will trade. Case of Iran knocked off SWIFT system clearly shows that US and all this "TOO BIG TOO..." is just a scary story for infants. Iran still trades ... North Korea is still survives ...
I'm not thinking anyone is fool or smart, me included ... just exchange of ideas and thoughts ... noone can know everything but getting the direction sometimes is very important.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: I'm not thinking anyone is fool or smart, me included ... just exchange of ideas and thoughts ... noone can know everything but getting the direction sometimes is very important.  In the case of Iran and North Korea though they are no where near as moderized. Most of those people have to fend for themselves or still live off the land. Im not saying no one will trade for PMs but that there wont be a massive commerence system emerge right away. Part of it will depend on where you live too. If you live in rural Oklahoma yea people probably wouldnt be the worried and would take money knowing theyll just keep living off the land. If you live in NYC however very few if any would have the slighest clue how to live off the land and places like that food would be far more valuable than anything else with the exception of clean water
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2019 Posts |
A few points taken from the History of Money on Wikipedia. Quote:
It has long been assumed that metals, where available, were favored for use as proto-money over such commodities as cattle, cowry shells, or salt, because metals are at once durable, portable, and easily divisible. The use of gold as proto-money has been traced back to the fourth millennium BC when the Egyptians used gold bars of a set weight as a medium of exchange, as had been done earlier in Mesopotamia with silver bars
When a nation is without a currency it commonly adopts a foreign currency. In prisons where conventional money is prohibited, it is quite common for cigarettes to take on a monetary quality, and throughout history, gold has taken on this unofficial monetary function.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_money
Edited by Northerncoins 04/04/2013 06:28 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1200 Posts |
Speculating about how things will go and what will or won't work in a true SHTF scenario is an exercise in futility and it's just depressing. Being cognizant, mindful and as prepared as one can reasonably be is prudent, but I don't think carrying that speculative mindset into the unimaginable accomplishes anything beyond reinforcing the futility of life and the absence of hope in this world.
That kind of speculation is only one small step away from speculating about a zombie apocalypse, a giant asteroid colliding with the earth and breaking the planet into fragments or being diagnosed with terminal pancreatic cancer.
The rants about Brinks grabbing silver, the govt gun-grabbers and govt SDB-grabbers are bad enough but this SHTF-obsessing is really depressing.
It's springtime! Get outside---go for a bike ride, do some whitewater canoeing, catch some sun on a park bench or enjoy something pleasant before the zombies get here and cannibalize your family!
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Replies: 18 / Views: 2,360 |