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Replies: 31 / Views: 4,019 |
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Valued Member
United States
317 Posts |
Especially with silver diving under $20 an ounce?
Gold pricing at the Mint is done weekly but gold going to $1200 an ounce definitly looks possible now.
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Moderator
 United States
188213 Posts |
I would not hold my breath. Quick to raise, slow to lower.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Jbucks right they are very slow to lower. I cant remember their graph though for the pricing grids whether or not 20 was a magic number to reprice, if it was though theyll take a week or so to lower it especially if its sticking right around 20. I do think 15 is a magic number though If I remember right.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
899 Posts |
I am also thinking 15 to 17 - but I think they are slow to see what the actual value of silver will be. It could drop to 19 or lower tomorrow and very well be back at 22 on Monday or Tuesday (doubtful). My personal belief is silver will settle somewhere around 15 before it finally finds a comfort zone. Which is good price for buyers who hold long term.
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Valued Member
 United States
317 Posts |
15 seems like the number to me also. Trying to reformulate a plan on purchasing silver items from the mint. I'd love to get more of the mint's silver goodies cheaper, especially those 5oz ATB's from the mint at a lower rate. Also would be happy if I can get a few more silver proof sets cheaper also.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2077 Posts |
They did drop the price of the silver proof sets a bit. I was at a show in Baltimore today and the only effect I saw from dropping silver prices was bullion. ASEs were going for $25. Everything else was priced the same as 6 months ago.
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Valued Member
United States
84 Posts |
I wonder what metrics the mint uses in their silver prices. I am guessing either a 50-day or 200-day MA but not sure where the cutoffs $$$'s are.
I wrote them once last year on the platinum which was a stable $1350/oz, the proof was $1960 for like a month. Literally the next day, think they dropped it to $1865, still a huge premium oTnTo platinum no matter what the melt is.
To figure where silver is going is like trying to catch a falling knife because it has the industrial tie with a slowing demand from China's lower GDP. Also, hard to price because silver has such wild fluctuations over a short period of time. I think 2 weeks sub-$20 will get the mint to change. Mind you, it just plummeted through it's key support level of $20. Usually it will drop more because the next level of support is $12. The gold trade has been broken for months now.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5207 Posts |
The precious metals market VS mint pricing = stock market oil prices vs gas station pricing.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
When the Mint first announced their program of adjusting the prices they said they would use the average price for the past week. So even though silver has dropped the weekly average may not have changed that much. I do not know what the breakpoints are for the changes.
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Valued Member
United States
84 Posts |
Quote: The precious metals market VS mint pricing = stock market oil prices vs gas station pricing. A closer relation is is RBOB gasoline which I think is around $2.50/gallon vs. what they charge you at the pump (which includes transportaion/storage/tax/profit). The mint would require a premium PLUS melt. Coins don't make themselves. It is really, unfortunately, more complex than that in commodities. The NY mercantile was forced to match paper gold vs. physical gold and they once came up short. So no doubt corruption had to do something with them getting shut down. Even in a good exchange, more people own PAPER silver and gold than PHYSICAL. They rely on algorithm to automatically sell at certain points. Remember, the commodities market is LESS controlled than the stock market. The next "flash crash" that enters a sell order of 10 million ounces of gold, all those people relying on those algorithms get burnt because that triggers an automatic sell off. Like I said, $20/oz is a key support level. It closed below that and there is nothing to catch it (buy it) until $12/oz. Couple that with hedgefunds looking to make returns for their clients portfolios, there are a lot of people shorting or betting against a higher price. These parasites make money when the price of silver goes down.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1088 Posts |
I think it will be a while before we see them lower the prices substantially. people are still buying at the prices they have listed now, not many but I am sure there are some. I think that they will try to ride out the price for as long as they can before lowering it. JMO
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Valued Member
 United States
317 Posts |
With silver closing today around 18.50 an oz, (5oz=92.50 melt), and people saying it and gold are going to fall even more, I see at least another $20, probably another $40 coming off the 5oz ATB's from the mint here soon.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2077 Posts |
$18.50? Yikes.
This brings up an interesting point and a new situation. When prices were rising, people who bought early didn't mind at all. Those who waited, should have justified the extra expense with "you snooze, you lose" logic. With prices falling, anyone who bought early will be hosed. I don't think the mint has any kind of price guarantee. A drop of say $5 for a silver proof set I can handle, but if it ends up that at the end of the year, the sets I just bought sell for $15 less, I won't be happy.
I'd actually prefer that they lock the price for sets for the entire production year. Bullion, they can move around with the market.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2077 Posts |
Another point is that the mint really isn't affected by silver price. I thought that the whole idea behind the ASE program was to decrease the amount of silver that the fed was holding (hoarding). Seems that buying new silver at market would defeat this purpose.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: I'd actually prefer that they lock the price for sets for the entire production year. The trade off for that would be higher prices overall. No one likes seeing it sold cheaper later on but I would rather have that that higher prices. If the price is locked they just have to price everything like silver could get back into the 40s again, well I guess they wouldnt have to but they likely would or at least have a cushion for a lot higher spot than we currently have
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Replies: 31 / Views: 4,019 |