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 Replies: 14 / Views: 1,219 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1283 Posts |
Obviously numismatics is a huge industry right now, much more so than in years past. But has the market ever been though a slump, either big or small? If so, were there certain key coins that were unaffected... or was pretty much the entire market hit?
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Valued Member
United States
239 Posts |
In the 80's when Wall Street got involved and later left the market. Prices shot up and then declined to a record low. From what I know, the entire market was hit.
Edited by kenny_1745
07/21/2007 10:55 pm
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Valued Member
United States
459 Posts |
In the 80's when Wall Street got involved and later left the market. Prices shot up and then declined to a record low. From what I know, the entire market was hit.Wall Street was effected and became involved after the spike and crash of silver in the mid '80's. This was a direct result of the attempt to corner the silver market by the Hunt Family. During this time silver coins, primarily rolls of UNC Morgans, were peddled at approx. 10x melt by huxterz via TV and telephone. Needless to say, a lot of less than knowledgeable "investors" lost their shirts on the venture. The Hunt family and Circle K story can be found at: http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/edu...nt_bros.htmlhttp://www.gold-eagle.com/editorial...e012704.html
Edited by Benji
07/21/2007 11:34 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
651 Posts |
I actually remember two with the Hunt Brothers in late 80 and then another in the early 90s. Locally during these times, keys were not impacted too badly in the 80s but they did take a significant hit in the 90s. I remember walking into a coin shop in the early 90's and the dealer would have several unc 1909S VDB cents for around $275. If only I knew back then I'd have loaded up on keys  If you want to see some historical numbers then check out the 'U.S. Coin Values Adviser" site located here in the Directory section under Education |
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New Member
United States
16 Posts |
There's always been highs and lows, we're just in a really large high right now.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1283 Posts |
quote:
I remember walking into a coin shop in the early 90's and the dealer would have several unc 1909S VDB cents for around $275.
Basically I wanted to look at detailed historical prices on the very coin you mentioned. One of the main reasons I bought it is because of it, and because 2009 is rolling around soon. I'm expected significant jumps toward the middle of 2008 from other speculative buyers. According to the chart you told me about (thanks! Great website), the low prices in the early 90's weren't a decrease. So it at least (appears) that my investment is a relatively safe one. 1909-S VDB 1985 225 250 275 350 375 450 500 700 --- 1990 225 250 275 300 350 375 475 550 --- 1995 350 400 425 475 550 625 675 875 1150 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
It's true that coin collecting has sky rocketed lately. Mainly due to amateurs collecting the baby dollars, State Quarters, some goofy looking nickels. The entire industry has responded with folders for coins, albums, newsleters and a massive amount of books. In addition to this is the internet. There to the coin industry has been helped massively with things like ebay and on line dealers. Way, way back when I started collecting there was only Whitman folders and the Red Book. I have all the Red Books from the 8th edition to present. Like a kid, I threw out the first ones way back then. As for prices of coins. I don't remember ever seeing the prices go down. They may have leveled off a bit but never saw them drop. And I don't mean just the keys, all coin in general. Even in the 80's, when there was a supposedly recession, at coin shows, coin stores and in general, I never saw prices decline. Way, way back coins were just a hobby like stamps but esier to find in change or sometimes even on the ground. I doubt the prices will ever really drop dramatically, but when the one time, facinated by pretty stuff people loose interest, the prices will or should sevel off again. As to key's. I still remember a coin shop near my house with 10 1916D Mercury dimes in the window for $1.50 each. Sounds fantastic? However, that was in the late 1940's and that was a lot of money then. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1283 Posts |
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However, that was in the late 1940's and that was a lot of money then.
Wow! You really have been collecting for a while. I would love to have your perspective of seeing the hobby grow and evolve over the years. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2271 Posts |
Most slumps selectively hit the high flyers.
These downturns normally hit like clockwork with some of the more major ones being in 1965, 1974, 1980, and 1989. The '89 hit was severe and it appeared to some observers that the hobby would never really recover. In '95 the moderns started going up and it brought the rest of the market with it (like a man pulling a bus).
Extremely valuable coins are not so obviously impacted as everything else. Partly it's a fiction that's maintained to keep spirits up and partly it's the fact that the owners don't need to sell so will wait for a stronger market. Much of it is real strenght too; rare coins just don't get hit as hard as more common coins when the market turns sour.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1247 Posts |
Has anyone ever heard of the mini-skirt theory for the stock market? The theory is that mood is the cause of events rather than events causing moods in people. That seems to playing out right now in the stock market isn't it? If it where the opposite, if events cause moods then what were the happy events that drove the stock market to 14,000? The Bear Stearns hedge funds chewing the carpet?  The mini-skirt theory suggests that the same giddy moods that drive the stock market up are the same moods that raise hem-lines. And when the hem-line can't go up any more the "show" is over. Maybe the utter failure to institute 100 point grading is the max out mini-skirt? Doesn't it seem just a bit odd that the finest known 1913 Lib nickel practically went begging for a buyer while some mushroom tea rubbish by Andy Warhol sold for 71 million dollars? There is, IMO, a huge potential for coins as an investment in the years ahead, years that are surely going to have a lot of "social un-rest" world-wide. But the grading Frankenstein bumbling through the village, is going to be a big hindrance. Especially when financial magazines are very alert about pointing out "Frankie." |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
As I said I've never seen the coin market drop in value. Of course that is depending on the area. In the area I live I've noticed that the coin prices have never really declined in the over 60 years I've been collecting. It would be difficult to compare with other areas or regions of the country due to back then we did not have the greatest and most reliable methods of communications with coin dealers. Could not look up a coin show schedule on the internet because there was no such thing way, way back. But for my small area of the world here in Chicago the coin market has been either level of just up, up, up.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1283 Posts |
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Maybe the utter failure to institute 100 point grading is the max out mini-skirt?
Not to stray off topic, but I've always thought even 70 points is too many. And that is almost a fact, considering we don't even use all 70 available points, i.e. EF-40, EF-45, etc. |
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Valued Member
United States
204 Posts |
When I started collecting in the early 90's I could tell it was in a slump, in part since silver and gold were down so low.
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Valued Member
United States
157 Posts |
Many coins have experienced a big slump, and repeatedly. Key dates, classic rarities and very early U.S. coins have been less susceptible to downturns. Not immune -- but usually not as pummeled as more common stuff.
The last serious downturn bottomed in the 1989-90 time frame, so people who started collecting after that time may have no concept that coin values do indeed go down. (IMO, we're overdue.)
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
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So it at least (appears) that my investment is a relatively safe one.
Safe yes, but a very poor investment. Even in the top grade in the list it enjoyed a 2% annual growth during a period when the inflation rate was 3% or higher per year, and during the first part of the stock boom. If you didn't have the top grade coin you did even worse. So in real terms your investment is a loss even though it went up in price. |
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Replies: 14 / Views: 1,219 |
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Posted 07/21/2007 11:28 pm
