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 Replies: 11 / Views: 1,943 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
500 Posts |
I know some don't like to look at the hobby in terms of investment and ROI, but I think it wise to look at that aspect some anyway. I only got "back" into coins about 4 years ago after a long period from when I was a kid. Several topics about what would you buy for $20, $100, etc. come up and some answer with bullion or bullion coins like ASE's while others say buy what you like etc. Others have mentioned Morgans and their value over time. I asked what coins have done the best over say the last 25 years as far as ROI. I've heard/read some posters speculating here and elsewhere about this but don't know where to find such info. I did start to look at PCGS historical prices and they show some interesting trends. I've only begun to look at it but I thought I'd state what I see and get others input. Looking at the last 10 years ( no idea how good a sample size that is for such things but that is all PCGS has for most coins from what I can tell ): 1. I had hoped and expected to see that gold coins ran somewhat parrallel to gold prices. Not totally unexpectedly, but I found that the lower the grade the more that is true. Why this is interesting to me is that a large number of posters and coin "experts" seem to push GEM-level coins as the best for the investment aspect. But, in general, the exact opposite may be the better strategy for gold. If the lower grade coins appreciate more along the lines of gold prices, and those continue the UP trend overall, then having the "more true bullion-like" aspect of low grade gold coins will maximize ROI over higher grade specimens. In the last 10 years gold has say gone up 2.5 to 3X. GEM gold coins have been relatively flat during that period. Low grade gold coins up maybe 1.5 to 2X. I wonder if the same is true of silver? That the "junk silver" is totally in synch with silver spot prices because it doesn't have any numismatic "worth" above the silver content, while the higher you go in grade the more divurgent the price trends are ( worse ). I know there was some BIG FALLOUT in prices in the 90's where almost every coin fell dramatically off the plank after a run-up to peak. But the last 10 years has not been that good either. Choppy but flat or down overall it seems. One interesting thing I saw at PCGS. For the 1938-D MS67 buffalo nickel(all grades for that year I think) they have its history back to 1970 - as opposed to 2004 or 2005 for most. It is interesting that it shows super low prices before PCGS started grading coins and then peaks at like $3000 in 1990 before dropping hard through about 1995 to around 300, then a slow bleed to the $155 it has been around for several years now. I wish they had other coins that far back - I just haven't found them! Was 1990 the big fall-off year for most? |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2124 Posts |
Yes but in that case why just don't you invest in pure gold?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1275 Posts |
It's not really fair to look at bullion related pieces in this light because it is unlikely bullion prices will rise at the same clip as they did in the previous 10 years.
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
Quote:
Was 1990 the big fall-off year for most? Yeah, -ish. That's when the Wall Street push into coins as investments collapsed - they realized that nobody in their right mind uses rare coins as reliable investment vehicles. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1959 Posts |
Well, low grade gold does follow bullion, but high grade gold would generally have more numismatic value. Meaning that the value of the coin has more to due with rarity/demand than it's metal content. So, gold with numismatic value will be more likely to trend upward independently of the bullion prices. Especially if the numismatic value far exceeds the bullion value.
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Valued Member
United States
337 Posts |
The problem of looking at coins as an investment is you plan to sell one day. If you will never sell, why consider your coins as an investment?
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
That has always been my attitude to considering the value of my collection.
Nevertheless, one of the reasons people buy and sell anything is to make a profit. With that profit, you then buy the things in life that you enjoy. For folks here in the CCF, one of the pleasures in life is coin collecting. Some of us here at least have leapfrogged the investment phase, and derive a profit valued in terms of enjoyment, simply by collecting, where profit may NOT be the main motivation in building a collection.
Profit was NOT my motivation in by early 20's when I was able to build a nice gold type set and a nice collection of about 150 Roman coins, which included two gold aureii.
I got married.
All of the collection had to go, to help raise money to purchase our first home. Nevertheless a very substantial profit was realized from the sale of the coins. That profit was exponentially built on because the value of the coins, incorporated into the value of the house, continued to grow.
That was 40 years ago.
Since that time, I have built another very nice collection of World and ancient coins, where again, profit is NOT the main motivation in acquisition of each piece. Again nevertheless, the value of this collection has significantly increased, partly by market price increase, and partly by growth in size of the collection. In this case though, I have never had any forced reason to sell any or all of the second collection.
When I kick the bucket, this collection will go to public auction, the value of it split between my children, with the exception that they may want to keep some individual coins from it, that will thus not be sold.
I have started both of my children down the path of coin collecting, and both have collections of significant value.
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Valued Member
Australia
491 Posts |
To tell the truth it all gets very confusing! There is just so many psychosis that fit in here! Collector only, hoarder, stacker, collect with resale if the worst happens, investment buying, buyer for the thrill of the hunt only, buy to sell only, part collector, part seller, buy at any cost collector, only buy dirt cheap as a collector and also the information to share collector.  Heads or Tails...........  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
767 Posts |
The 2012 Silver proof Kennedy half sold at normal price in 2012 (around $20), but now because of the low mintage number (300,000+) they are selling for over $100. -just my 2 wheat pennies. |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
500 Posts |
Even if you don't ever PLAN on selling your collection, I think taking the value into consideration is smart. Things can change and you may one day value a vacation or buying property or whatever as more important to you than your collection - or even just part of it. Priorities change and it is better to be smart than "sorry" when they do. Or even what your kids or whomever inherits the collection can derive should not be dismissed completely, IMO. Or, as I have experienced, maybe your goals for a denomination or series or album CHANGES over time and you decide to upgrade or change your collecting strategy. It is nice to know that you can sell the coins you replace - or duplicates or whatever the reason - and not take a hit on them. I have been pleased that I have been able to sell most of the ones I no longer "need" at a small profit - even after fees etc. Thus putting that $ back into upgrades. Most of my collection has been amassed in the last 4 years tho. So I am not selling coins I have owned for 40 years nor within a major "swing" of said market. I did sell a chunk of inherited "junk silver" for 24X face to "kick start" my collecting of coins I had always wanted to as a kid. I think keeping some "investment/cost/value" in mind is prudent. I would much rather buy a gold coin, that was once potentially in circulation, with its history and numismatic "value" than a bullion coin or bar. But if it is true that higher mint state coins are of no appreciable investment value then I would target lower grade more - for instance - and value quantity per $ over quality of the grade. So many dealers PUSH gem quality ( hi $ ) to know that is kinda BS(at least from an investment point of view) is somewhat important. If you are a roll-hunter, or collect cheap coins, it doesn't matter one iota. But I am interested in the "combo" ( not just one or the other) of coins and PM in some denominations so it is not completely irrelevant to me. When I was a kid I collected some coins and some bills. I remember that a collector friend of my father's suggested not collecting those bills (silver certificates mainly) as they did not have much "investment" value. When I sold them over 35 years later at only about 2X face, I realized he was 100% correct back then. I'd have been much better off depositing them in the bank at face value and letting the interest grow - or better yet buying silver/gold coins back then with that $. I wasn't that interested in the bills as collectibles ever anyway. |
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New Member
United States
21 Posts |
I consider it an investment, but certainly is not a primary investment due to risk/lack of liquidity. I have no idea the real numismatic value of my coins- which is why I like to focus on the silver/gold content as a basis for investing purposes.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
500 Posts |
WorldSilver, that is where I am at when looking at gold and a little bit at silver coins as well. Paying too much over melt for a gold coin then puts a lot of risk into the numismatic side which is pretty dodgy overall, IMO. If MS65 gold coins have trended down or flat while gold has continued up ... then those are not very smart to invest in overall. At least from what I saw in the last 10 years - wish I could go back further! While selling to upgrade, I notice my Peace dollars and Walkers sell a lot quicker than lower denom stuff like dimes nickels pennies. So I think the market is pretty strong for those coins compared to the others I collect. Haven't sold any gold, but most sellers seem to want a major premium for it when they do sell. Other than "slab sellers", gold dealers tend to want a fair amount above list retail for those coins. JMHO Edited by BuffalosRock
05/22/2014 12:28 pm
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Replies: 11 / Views: 1,943 |
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Posted 05/16/2014 6:05 pm
