How Do You Figure What's It Worth

Valuing a coin is an art. I use a range of methods to estimate how much I am prepared to pay for a coin.
1.Catalogs: Remember they are out of date as soon as they are published. First off Krause is not useful but it provides a start point. I use Krause to tell me what the average coin collector thinks its worth. I then revert to catalogs produced in the countries the coins come from. Often that will highlight sleepers: coins that are likely to substantively increase in value. If krause values the coin substantively lower than the home countries catalog I am pretty sure I have a winner. How much I pay become s then a matter of market forces. For example. in 2006 I purchased a proof New Zealand Waitangi Crown for Euro 2000. That was its Krause value....but its NZ catalog value was closer to Euro 5000. That wasn't a fluke. I did the same with an Ethiopian Matt proof Birr. The matt proof ( 300 minted) wasn't listed in Krause the normal proof ( 500 minted) was and was valued at US$1200.00. I purchased a matt proof example for Euro 650( it hurt a lot to pay that)_ Heritage sold one a year or so ago in excess of US$4000.00

2: Auction catalogs: get them read them and stick the auction results into the back of the catalog. The matt proof Birr became an even easy buy when I found no one had sold one for at least five years( indication of rarity) . Reading auction catalogs gives a real time update on the market......but be warned; shelf space disappears quickly and you need to develop a good useable referencing system

3. Know the story of the coin: Coins with a significant story if not already expensive are sleepers. Its easy to know the story of coins from your own country and you will have lots of competition for those coins. But once you get into foreign coins you can find bargains. Read the books but don't trust them. After 12 years of serious collecting I have honed my instinct ..but I am still well behind the skills and instincts of those who have been collecting for 20 plus years.

4. Assess rarity not on what the book says but on what the market tells you. But don't listen to the price! A 1909 VDB may be called rare.....but assuming you had the money how quickly could you add one to your collection? My guess is within a week. That tells you the coin is more fashionable than it is rare. { I might be wrong with the 1909 VDB as I am not that familiar with US coins}. From my native country New Zealand the 1935 3d is supposed to be rare ( mintage 45000) however if you check on ebay I am sure you will find at least one ( probably more) for sale right now. It was known to be rare from the end of of 1935 as a result there was a huge survival rate.


But I haven't answered you on assessing price.....the reason being that comes down to you and how much you trust your judgement. Would you have paid almost US$3000 for a coin that was valued in Krause at that level only? ( Reminder: I did that with the Waitangi Crown)
Price comes down to what you think the coin is worth to your collection and how much pain you're prepared to inflict on your bank account for that coin. remember in the end its collectors like us that set the market value....not the dealers, and catalogers.

Thank you both, I knew it would come down to "what do I think the coin is worth to my collection" but the points you have mentioned would definitely helped to keep the sanity.

checking prices realised is the safest way, catalogues are very useful but not in that way

It's difficult to say but I reckon prices are like flow of time. As usual, the basics of economy 101 comes in play for prices - supply and demand.

Often prices normally go up over time as supply usually drops due to meltdowns, collectors not looking after coins properly etc. However the opposite can happen - as "investors" reckon they can make fat profits on certain coins, prices may jack up and fall over a long period of time.

I've been collecting coins for more than a decade and I have seen either coins that were previously common have jacked up more than 10 fold and not even appear in the market despite low catalog value and coins that were previously thought to be "hard to find" have stagnated for a long time.

Best practice is to buy to your heart's content.