| Author |
Replies: 19 / Views: 3,603 |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
|
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1817 Posts |
So most of these coins are going to dealers as expected? 56,694 first day sales is way too many coins especially for one well over $1K. This coin isn't the gold BHOF with a limited mintage divided unequally between proof and uncirculated... IMO, I think there will be cancellations as buyers think better of it, and of the 4th Qtr. buyers remorse and the expenses of the upcoming holiday season. If it were vastly cheaper like the silver set to come, the numbers will be justified. Selling this coin might present issues as well especially its odd 3/4th oz sizing. The prudent sat on the fence as spectators this time around. It might follow the trend of the 2012/13 ASE sets and RP Buffalo. My instinct is the coin is not unique enough like the $20 UHR to merit such sales numbers.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
 United States
12815 Posts |
Interesting analysis, Bizy. I agree, but yet I still want one, thus went ahead and put in an order late last night. Not sure I'd ever be able to find one cheaper. Possible, but who knows. Either way it's a gamble. Your arguments definitely make me think twice about buying a 2nd to sell.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1817 Posts |
What I find puzzling about the whole order scenario is the length of time the coin will be available on sale. Is it going to be a month, two weeks or an indefinite till 'sometime' in the future? In any of the outcomes, the first week's sales is sure to equal the 1998 matte proof at 62,000 sold. And that coin was dirt cheap compared to the gold. So many expensive coins cornered by a few deep pocket dealers spells trouble in the long run. It already eclipsed the RP Buffalo which has similar stats, different but not so different to be a must have one-off coin like the '09 UHR $20 coin proved to be. The gold coin is only materially different with dual dating and a line indicating weight and fineness, and even though it's a 'cute' expression of the GOLDEN anniversary, the coin sticks out like the odd man out in the running set. Is it or isn't complete without the gold?
Ultimately it will be an expensive curiosity or overpriced souvenir. Unlike five years ago many people are up on the latest Mint releases and also knowledgeable about hotly desired coins like the gold BHOF and assume just because its made of gold everyone will want one (or afford one eventually). Fallacious short-term thinking. The market can't support that many coins with a 30% markup over metal content. At some point I expect the market to crash on this coin, when that dip happens, take advantage and buy. It's one thing to take a loss on a $25 coin, but this is 50X and a small fortune for the casual collector to sock away that much in one coin. It is SO not the BHOF gold, that was literally a gold mine for the prescient and the knowledgable. 50,000 was a laughable miniscule amount for a $400 coin, especially when many buyers bought both the proof and the unc together, further shrinking the pool of available owners. This gold release feels like a carryover from the BHOF fiasco, which tied up the website for nearly 8 hours. I noticed after two hours after noon yesterday, the waiting room was 2 minutes tops. I suspect there wasn't that many small orders if the web traffic cleared quickly and the majority of the 56,694 were bought by the big players anticipating another payoff. We'll see, but the market forces aren't aligned well for this coin, but just wait for the silver -- that set spells W-I-N-N-E-R...
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
5417 Posts |
Atleast it's only a 30% markup. The RCM has anywhere from a 3x-5x Markup.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
9792 Posts |
ANA governor and my friend Mike Ellis messaged me tonight. He thinks there will be more first day issued Kennedy gold coins slabbed than will be sold at the show by the U.S. Mint. Kevin Lipton is buying a ton of them at the Denver Mint to have overnighted to the ANA Show for the $100 walk through grading. Kevin is a smart guy, we both attended our first ANA summer seminar together, many years ago as YN's. He has always had the Midas touch in the Coin World.
"Buy the Book Before You Buy the Coin" - Aaron R. Feldman - "And read it" - Me 2013! ANA Life Member #3288 in good standing since 1981, ANS, Early American Coppers Member (EAC), Colonial Coin Collectors Club member (C4), Conder Token Collector Club member (CTCC), Civil War Token Society (CWTS) member, Liberty Seated Collectors Club (LSCC) & Numismatic Bibliomania Society member (NBS), USMex, Member in good standing, 2¢ variety collector. See my want page: http://goccf.com/t/140440
Edited by westcoin 08/07/2014 02:40 am
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1817 Posts |
The difference between the US Mint and RCM are the mintages. The RCM would never charge a markup of 50% over metal content for a mintage of 56,694, they know that's an impossibility with their products, hence the mintages between 500 and 10K pieces. For the RCM and other world mints, 50,000+ is bullion territory especially for gold and platinum, not a limited mintage for either of those expensive PMs. If I understand you correctly, westcoin, that there will be more first day labels than were actually sold by the Mint at the Rosemont show. Those labeled slabs as such will always command a premium over 'regular' PR70s and OGP coins. Label chasing just gets more and more ridiculous as more people with vastly more dollars than cents enter the market on each subsequent 'hot' release, and in the process damage the hobby irreparably for us regular numismatic Joes, IMO. I didn't buy this coin because it felt like a gratuitous and unnecessary release by the Mint, which was an entirely new sensation regarding any Mint product.
Edited by Bizybackson 08/07/2014 03:15 am
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
899 Posts |
Bizy...I agree with you. It appears the label chasing for this coin drove up the "demand". I hope many of the large resellers lose their shirts on this over hyped - over sold offering. That would be good for the hobby of coin collecting, and a blow to the label marketers.
There are many now "hyping" the FS/ER as being part of the initial 40,000 sold. That is an interesting but unimpressive new line of thought on the label. Seriously that is how hard people are trying to justify the label craze. 57,000 sold the 1st day - but only 40,000 of us have the chance to have this label!
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
4691 Posts |
I think this coin is ultimately destined to be a bullion coin only. It may take a while for that to play out as the usual suspects (telemarketers) may juice it up temporarily. Watch for that right around the anniversary of Kennedy's assassination.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1254 Posts |
I agree with Bizy on all of this. How long are these coins going to be available? Will the mint give a deadline once they figure it out or will they just cut it off and call it sold out at some point in time? I know they were going to look at the first week's sales and then try and figure out how many more or how long they will mint them. But once they decide this magic number will it be communicated to the masses? There a lot of unanswered questions right now on this coin. I personally like the coin but I am still sitting on the fence and waiting to see what happens. I get the feeling I will be sitting out here for awhile.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1037 Posts |
I am not surprised with the proxy buyers at the Denver Mint. This type of action has been happening for years with concert tickets, sporting events, and new iPhones.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1228 Posts |
In that story it said that prices may change once on the gold 3/4 oz higher relief duel dated kennedy.
First day of sale 8/5/2014 gold spot closed at $1288.60 today its at $1312.50 up $23.90 will see.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
899 Posts |
A spokesman for the mint said today in Chicago..."Striking coins to customer demand through Dec. 31″
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1254 Posts |
The rumor I read was that the mint had enough gold set aside for 75,000 coins and would be minting 6,000 per week until demand slowed. Don't forget, everything you read on the internet is true. :) If I see any factual info. I will post it.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1254 Posts |
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
|
| |
Replies: 19 / Views: 3,603 |