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 Replies: 87 / Views: 11,795 |
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Moderator
 Canada
10456 Posts |
I finally have to cancel the immense of emails from the RCM, they are simply just flooding the market with almost one coin issue per day within a calendar year... I am just not buying anything, anymore, and in fact, I am selling the bulk of my NCLT collection... Why am I doing this? If you don't learn from history... Post Offices killed stamp collecting. Up to the late 1970s, one would expect no more than 10 to 15 commemorative stamps per year plus a handful of regulars with postage for national, US and international and larger package denominations. Suddenly the market was flooded by hundreds of new issues, as well as market gimmicks such as first day issues, special page displays and marks. Today, we see the remains of these collections decorating our ebay packages, which were sold at huge discounts. I sold my stamp collection in the early 1980s (bought my first dirt bike with the profits), and am grateful I did... Sports Cards also suffered the same fate in the early 1990s. Corruption that went on with the card manufacturers, along with all the extraneous sets, special cards, ‘chase' cards, and the entire market collapsed... (read the book Card Sharks). I sold my entire sports card collection in early 1991 and bought gold maple leaf 1 oz coins (and later bought my second house with the profits), and am grateful I did... Now, the RCM, as well as other international mints are pumping out a tremendous amount of NCLT stuff, at the average rate of one coin per day within a calendar year. Does anyone else sense a 'Thelma & Louise' moment coming up with this aspect of the hobby? Granted, there will always be intrinsic value with some coins, but still, do you think it will affect other aspects of the hobby, like collecting business strike decimal coinage? While I am getting rid of my NCLT, I am still forging ahead with error coins and business strike PCGS Registry sets. Time to tuck and roll out of the car, before it hits the edge of the cliff... "Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert OppenheimerContent of this post is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses...0/deed.en_USMy eBay store
Edited by SPP-Ottawa
10/10/2014 09:06 am
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Valued Member
United States
300 Posts |
I like some of the oddball stuff like the Casa Loma and the Ice Dancing one. Still, the chance they will retain a value close to what they are sold for is beyond a doubt, remote. But if there were limits those two probably would have never made it. I wonder if the mintage amounts are much lower than reported--kinda like the "low" US unenjoyment rate is influenced by the number of citizens out of the workforce. But I'm such a trusting soul, anyhow.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
867 Posts |
Here's a poll I started a year and a half ago that would appear to support your decision, SPP: https://goccf.com/t/150094&SearchTerms=While I still enjoy collecting Canadian NCLT, I've seen the writing on the wall (or at the bottom of the cliff) and have no illusions about where this hobby is heading. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3049 Posts |
My question is.. because of the outpour of NCLT... do you see the whole coin collecting hobby taking a dump or just this one specific area... as I am worried about the hobby as a whole really..
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Valued Member
Canada
204 Posts |
makes sense for longterm value, I usually buy the ones I actually like and would want to keep, or those that are like 100% guaranteed to go up and I can make profit out of, ie superman, I made $1250 out of those, now even if I add the amount all my other NCLT dropped in value, still does not cancel out the profit. But if the RCM cut their mintage in half, and kept the same # of coins, or the other way around, that would change everything. |
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Valued Member
United States
274 Posts |
Maybe the analogy to sports cards offers some insight. After the bust in the 90's for that hobby, it re-emerged as something different, offering fewer and more high-end options. There aren't the same huge number of kids collecting baseball cards today like there was in the 80's and it seems to have become more of an adult hobby. Also, looking at the old stuff from 50 years ago and prior (think Mickey Mantle era), the value has held pretty well, where the mass produced cards of the 80's and 90's are worthless. So, maybe the mass of RCM issues of recent years will end up being worthless, but the vintage coins (for lack of a better term) will keep there value. The number of collectors will fall a little as the RCM NCLT market dies off. And it's likely that RCM and others will evolve to produce something new and better that will still attract customers, albeit a smaller market with more high end products. That's my guess, anyway. Give it another 5-10 years or so and we'll see. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
6768 Posts |
Quote:
I usually buy the ones I actually like and would want to keep, or those that are like 100% guaranteed to go up and I can make profit out of, ie Superman, I made $1250 out of those, now even if I add the amount all my other NCLT dropped in value, still does not cancel out the profit. But it's not about the profit, but collectability. You did buy 2 Superman Gold coins, sold them - this is not "collecting". But you correct - "buy only if you like". The problem, that with the huge recent amount of the coins, many of them attractive. Let's suppose you still have budget to buy them, and even if it's guaranteed, that they will hold a value: you will end up surrounded with the coins, that nice as singles, but all together due to the quantity will be just "cheap"....warehouse. In the best case you can afford to display them all (as for example CC&C store), but more commonly - they will be just stocked in different boxes. I have the second variant and I hate this. Too many. Have to say, that also started to clear part of the collection, just to "save the core". Btw, no profits, nothing, just 60% from issue/market price. Edited by Silveroid
10/10/2014 11:06 am
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Valued Member
74 Posts |
OP is right.
Edited by brian686
10/10/2014 4:48 pm
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New Member
32 Posts |
There is still time for the RCM to fix things up. In fact, lots of things can be done to keep the actual customer base and continue to make profit. I'm currently waiting to see who will be Master of the Mint... If there is no change, the NCLT market will simply collapse with all the collateral damage that this implies. Edited by Jumpy
10/10/2014 11:26 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3690 Posts |
I appreciate the sentiment SPP but I don't expect to see any revelations in this thread. As NuMoose pointed out and I'm sure you know, this same discussion has being coming up for years in one thread or another. There seems to be no shortage of forum members who post their dissenting view of NCLT repeatedly about every coin that is issued; some without adding anything else to the conversation. The only thing I would add to your comparison to sports cards is that most coins have some intrinsic value and have some value as currency. They won't ever go to zero like paper cards but they may get close. Even devalued old stamps can still be used for mailing.  Is coin collecting a prudent retirement strategy? The simple and clear answer for me is no. But neither are 'investing' in my sports car or motorcycles. For me, they are all hobbies and I treat them as such. For what it's worth, I haven't bought many NCLT this year and I have a serious case of coin fatigue. I personally find it impossible to get excited about new releases any more or even to keep track of all of the coins. It's just burn out and I agree the RCM is killing the hobby. And I don't expect anything to change with Marc Brule at the helm. |
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
2360 Posts |
I am new to collecting, but have heard much recently of the shows full of grey haired men, and a doomsday scenario coming for NCLT. I have seen NCLT selling for rock bottom prices already just a short time period after original release, months in some cases, but the quality and innovation we have seen just recently in NCLT has managed to reach more of us, or made the stunned few still in the game reach into their pockets. What they can do with textures, glow, paint, holograms, make for exciting times during releases and for trading what is considered hot. Nostalgia and history is examined, Regal anniversaries and war remembrances. I think I have heard that the number of collectors in Canada approaches 1 million and in the US 20 million. That's a pretty health market, but likely stacked on the elderly side of the bell curve as far as overall typical age is concerned. SPP, you will still collect the decimal and errors that you are fond of, I have moved more to bullion and decimal and away from NCLT. If the market moves, the mint will catch on and change for the better I hope. Too much product on the street causes a collapse in market prices and overall collection value. I have marked what I plan to sell and its all NCLT.
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Moderator
 Canada
10456 Posts |
R4mn33k, Instead of buying Superman stuff, I opted to spend my cash on something else that I enjoy looking at: a limited edition Robert Bateman print, "Thinking Like a Mountain", which Bateman also published a book under the same name... In 20 years from now, it should be an interesting comparison of value... 
"Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert OppenheimerContent of this post is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses...0/deed.en_USMy eBay store
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Valued Member
Canada
457 Posts |
After reading this post I started thinking about a new collector trying to get in to this hobby. Can you imagine being in your early 20s or younger and going through a Charlton coin guide. Even if you were to just pick one theme, it would be so overwhelming I think most people would just walk away and move on to something different. I don't know whether to count my self as lucky or unlucky that I have been able to buy most of my granny bait coins slowly over the last 7 years. One the biggest problems that I have at this point is that my OCD forces me to keep buying coins I don't really care for because I want to keep my "sets" complete :-( At this point I'm taking a long look at my coins and dumping all the ones that no longer, or ever did appeal to me.  I don't believe I ever thought that I would make any money from my hobby but at this point I'm very disappointed at the shear amount I will loose. I have to admit that I'm looking forward to thinning out my collection. I will "TRY" and keep it to just a few themes :-( BUT  "resistance is futile"  lol Wish me luck!!  |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
871 Posts |
My advice is to buy for what you like otherwise it isn't collecting.
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Valued Member
Canada
186 Posts |
Well stated SSP, I totally agree and am frustrated by what was a good thing that is being ruined.
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Valued Member
74 Posts |
Quote:
R4mn33k, Instead of buying Superman stuff, I opted to spend my cash on something else that I enjoy looking at: a limited edition Robert Bateman print, "Thinking Like a Mountain", which Bateman also published a book under the same name...
In 20 years from now, it should be an interesting comparison of value... In 1981 one of the hot artists painting natural settings of Canada was Peter Markgraf. I stood in line at some art gallery in downtown Vancouver, hoping to get a limited edition (80 prints in each series}. There were hundreds of buyers spending around $500 a print. I got lucky, I got two. They are now sitting framed on the wall of my office. 33 years later they are worth less than what I paid. At least with coins you can buy coins with provenance, and you should do okay. Art, to me, is a bigger gamble than coins as an investment. edit: OP is right about the NCLT... Edited by brian686
10/10/2014 4:51 pm
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Replies: 87 / Views: 11,795 |
Posted 10/10/2014 09:39 am
