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 Replies: 31 / Views: 5,649 |
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Valued Member
Canada
403 Posts |
It seems to me that issue over issue, month over month, and in some cases year over year, there is virtually no change in trends; notwithstanding the significant changes on the precious metal indexes over the past couple of years. The most recent prior issue of CCN (#14) is the first one I've seen in a long time where they showed a change in value of literally half dozen 50ยข pieces of a single grade. When I compare this same issue to a March issue (when precious metal indexes were higher), the numbers are exactly the same (aside from the 6 coins noted above). Another example: It's been 2 years since the release of the BoC Gold Hoard, yet no modernization of values reflected in trends.
What's up with that? Why are the trends not reviewed and updated more frequently? If the trends aren't changing with evolving market conditions, then where are the numbers coming from in the first place? And why do we collectors accept Trends as gospel in the marketplace vs. CoinsandCanada.com (they at least seem to update their value tables more routinely)?
Thoughts?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
I've been waiting for the BoC gold hoard changes as well. So If I were to sell mine today I would use Trends to get the most for it. Maybe collectors aren't selling those pieces as of yet, so the compilers of Trends lists don't know where the price has moved to? I don't think I want to sell my piece for a long time to come - possibly pass it down along the family; it's a great numismatic series without a doubt.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2495 Posts |
and what about all those ms64 to ms66 1914 10 cents that surfaced a year or two ago.
Wasn't there a roll or two of these?
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
9862 Posts |
The editors of Trends are dealers,while prices for most coins listed are in decline they are unlikely to bite the hand that feeds them.
"Dipping" is not considered cleaning...
-from PCGS website
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1051 Posts |
Dealers don't like to see the values of the coins in their inventories drop, nor do collectors like to see a drop in value of the coins they own. We've all heard the phrase "buy low, sell high", but human nature is to do the exact opposite for psychological reasons. If you perpetually mark down values, people tend to sell into market weakness to cut their losses and get out... and so begins the vicious cycle.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1505 Posts |
Trends only go up, not down. Lack of movement might be suggesting something kind of scary for a lot dealers.Check out the coinsandcanada ebay prices. Probably a pretty close estimate to current market price, considering that it seems pretty universal for people to quote trends - some XX% when discussing what they paid. A better question to ask: Is trends still relevant? If no, maybe time to shut it down. |
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Valued Member
Canada
496 Posts |
I agree with DBM , dealers make up the trends,they don't want to
take a loss plus it would take alot of unpaid time to update every
price.
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Pillar of the Community
710 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
627 Posts |
We need to stop looking at the trends the same way we look at the Toronto or NewYork stock exchanges. We look at the exchanges and we see real time quotes. The coin trends is nothing like that. It is a history only of prices. Coin collecting is somewhat of a stagnate market. I don't think that any dealer will tell you that coins are flying off their shelves faster then they can replace them. However, there are notable exceptions like key dates and RCM products ( RCM products are a different story all together.) Yes the dealers are the ones that work on the trends, simply because there is no one else to do them. They are the only ones that see coin transactions on a daily basis. You cant change a price on one or two transactions only of a particular coin grade. You need many sales before you can see a new pattern. And sometimes it does take years to see new pricing patterns. Not only is it trends, but its the other coin books as well. These come out yearly, and very few changes as well. These are only guides. To find the true value of a coin, you need to look at multiple sources. Look at the trend, the Charlton book, CoinsandCanada site, and ebay. ebay deserves another separate discussion as well. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2495 Posts |
Look at current selling prices. ebay is a very good indication. Prior to 2008 (the good years), coins on ebay were selling between 70% to 90% of trends. MS65 coins were selling between 90% to 110% of trends. Now, coins are more likely selling 40% to 60% of trends and the ms65 coins are selling 50% to 70% of trends. Keeping the 'inflated, unrealistic' prices of trends is OK, as long as you are aware of the lower selling percentages of today's market. The problem lies with the current dealers at coin shows still asking 80% to 100% of this inflated trends value. These coins sit in their showcase, year after year. They don't mind because most of these dealers aren't true businessmen (interested in a turnover) but rather are more like 'collectors'. They are in love with their coins and if they don't sell the coin at 'their' high price, then they aren't bothered by the fact it won't sell because they would rather keep it. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1505 Posts |
Double Eagle,
You are probably right in your assessment about some dealers not being true businessmen and being in love with their coins.
I have heard an old dealer say: if you fall in love with the product you sell, you will not succeed. You must treat it as simple merchandise with which you need to make a profit. And when you do make a profit, you can not go bankrupt.
But some dealers seem to be more on the greedy side, their greed based on the numbers in Trends.
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
5394 Posts |
One reason that CCN trends never changes is that the Canadian Coin Market is very thinly traded. In Canada there are not many true full time coin dealers. The number is probably well below a hundred. Brick and mortar shops are disappearing at a regular and increasing pace (another just closed here on south Vancouver Island) .
If you take trends and the Charlton Standard Catalogue for what they are .............. a guide based on CERTIFIED ICCS and to some degree CCCS coins then they are a couple of useful tools to help arrive at a fair price. Just be sure to check lots of other sources if you are buying or selling. Personally and business wise, I have to say that the coin business for us has been wonderful the last few years. Realistic is the new buzz word. What 47P7 says is true, coins are like anything else we consume, a product , nothing more or nothing less. As a dealer I find lots of neat stuff through the course of my business, but I sure do NOT collect much . I admire some of it for awhile ,but then it is coded and priced and hopefully sold to someone who will treasure it.
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Valued Member
 Canada
403 Posts |
This is a very interesting and enlightening discussion, and I appreciate everyone's engagement on this topic.
Considering dealers are populating CCN Trends, I would also presume CoinsandCanada.com value charts are also updated by dealers as well, correct? Why is it CoinsandCanada.com routinely updates its value matrices, yet CCN (a recognized bi-weekly publication) doesn't? Why would we as coin enthusiasts knowingly rely on dated/errant information? I would much rather rely on a resource that routinely updates its information (provided it is based on current market activity) rather than one that falsely represents current market activity. That being said, I don't know who is involved with the CoinandCanada.com website, how it's staffed/funded/managed/etc., but CCN is a registered media outlet responsible for reporting current and accurate information to its readers, and should have the resources to do so considering their revenue streams to support that objective. Dealers shouldn't get to dictate market trends, the market should, and it is incumbent on CCN et al to report those outcomes; whatever those results may be.
As an aside, I give Charlton a pass on this topic since it's an annual publication of estimates intended only as a guide.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
627 Posts |
Not a lot is known of the CoinsandCanada website. I've heard that it is looked after by one private individual. I'd like to know more to confirm. If that is the case, which would be more reliable...a bunch of dealers that could or could not be only interested in their own interests, or one individual who probably does not get a chance to see as many transactions as the bunch of dealers do.
As for the Charlton, their pricing also is influenced by some of the same dealers.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5394 Posts |
There is better information out there than the mentioned resources but it costs lots of money to acquire it . Most collectors are not that involved in the coin market to really care that trends is unchanging. When we buy in collections of CANADIAN coins ,you see the same things over and over with very little surprises. Most of it was acquired out of change way back when. There are very few hard core collectors who actively purchased high value collector coins in the past. The surprise to most of you reading this....................most of the better Canadian coins sold in the past went to collectors in the .........wait for it...................United States. The Majority of Canadian Coin collectors (not all) have never spent a hundred dollars on a single coin, save the odd mint product.
When you think of it maybe trends is sort of redundant.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1505 Posts |
Pacificoin,
which dealer closed down your way? one of them owes me some money...
If you can not post it here, PM me please.
thanks
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Replies: 31 / Views: 5,649 |
Posted 11/03/2014 10:51 pm
