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 Replies: 21 / Views: 2,179 |
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New Member
United States
22 Posts |
Whats your take on the price of gold. Will it continue to rise, or will it plateau and drop back down like in the 70's?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1031 Posts |
If I could predict this then I would be a very wealthy man.
With that said, a little time up, then longer time down, then the slow crawl up again.
That's my take.
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New Member
 United States
22 Posts |
I'd have to agree with that take, I just wanted a second opinion I regretfully just started an interest in gold coins. Boy don't I wish I was interested back in 2002 only $278 an ounce...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2443 Posts |
Clay, I looked through some of the ads in some of my older coin magazines from '99 and '00 and wished that I could have bought all the gold coins they listed.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1031 Posts |
Amazon99, I think about that all the time. I just wonder what tomorrow will bring.
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
3831 Posts |
First quit talking about the past. Second, read more sites about the demand and supply of gold. To be exact, gold price has been pretty stagnant in other major currencies except the USD as the USD is depricating rapidly against other major currencies. While it would be nice for gold prices to keep going up and up, it's unlikely that it will keep up at this rate. In 2010, there are a few mines that are opening up and I know at least three new gold mines that have a total quoted value of 1 million+ oz. If that supply gashes out over a span of 10 years, well what do you think?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1031 Posts |
What are the 3 mines you know of?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1031 Posts |
Goldcorp Inc. (GG) has been good for me the last few months.
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
3831 Posts |
One of them is in Mongolia called Oyu Tolgoi with an estimated reserve 337,000+ ounces of gold (initial estimation was quoted to be 500,000+) and an enormous amount of copper, oil, coal etc over a span of over 40(!) years. There is a potential of it being much higher but that is not clear yet. That mine single handedly can change the potential of metal reserves as it's copper reserve if it comes online can contribute to some 3% of the global supply (!) Feel free to google it up - I think it's run by Ivanhoe mine and it recently got approved by the Mongolian government. Production is expected to come online in the next two years.
Xinjiang in China has another enormous amount of gold reserve there - I can't quite remember the figure and how things are run there but it had at least some 100,000+ oz of gold. The last mine, I can't quite recall the exact country and location but it's somewhere in South America (maybe Chile?) that has another high potential. It's just a matter of how long it takes for mining companies to get their operations ready and prices should start falling. Copper prices is already way too high at 7000USD/t and obviously all mining companies would love prices to stay as it is. Gold prices will be dependent on the amount of gold gushing out as well as the demand from China, India and Middle East but I don't think it's likely raise much higher, else the mining companies will be making a huge fat profit, which they rarely don't. What do you wish gold prices to be at? 1000USD/oz? 2000? Nah, quite unlikely.
Do google the major mining companies such as BHP billiton, Newmont Crest and read their executive reports. Pretty interesting stuffs going to happen.
My point is, it's very amateur to just point out the rising trend and past history when you want to talk about future prices. It's purely economics - supply and demand.
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseriesMy numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htmRegularly updated at least once a month. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1031 Posts |
Thanks gxseries. More research for me to do. That's what I like!
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Valued Member
United States
65 Posts |
Here's my take on gold prices:
If they lower rates gold will go up. I am betting they lower rates again.
If the dollar declines even more, gold will continue to rise. I am betting that the dollar continues to plummet.
If Bush attacks Iran Gold will skyrocket. Unfortunately I think this is going to occur.
Stock market crash? Gold will plummet half as deep and then rise up to an even higher position. Yep, I'm betting on a crash.
Terrorist attack? Gold will skyrocket but I don't think this will ever happen.
End the war in Iraq? Gold might decline.
I'm pretty bullish on gold because (I'm sorry to say) I'm pretty bearish on America.
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Valued Member
United States
455 Posts |
quote docsfishn: "f I could predict this then I would be a very wealthy man."
Ain't it the truth!
Gold has demonstrated that it can multiply ten fold, it was $70 in '74, it's $700 now. Who knows if it will be at $7000 in 30 years?
For that matter the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 1400 in '85, it's 14000 now.
Years from now we may be looking back at '07 as the good old days when you buy gold "cheap."
You never know, you never know.
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
3831 Posts |
Tsmith, you didn't factor in inflation. Don't forget, population 30 years ago was much less than now. You have 6 billion people now, it was like less than 4 30 years ago.
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseriesMy numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htmRegularly updated at least once a month. |
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Valued Member
United States
123 Posts |
It can be hard to predict, but as CommandD noted, gold tends to go up when there are serious problems in the society. The United States is showing a lot of signs of trouble lately, so gold is likely to go up relative to the U.S. dollar. This could, of course, turn around at some point. If things start looking good again for the U.S., precious metals might drop. Lately, I have been keeping an eye on the price of rhodium since I want some for my element collection. Unfortunately, it has skyrocketed in recent years and has been trading lately at around $6000/oz. A few years ago, when gold was low, rhodium would have been a far better investment than gold or silver. Rhodium is notoriously volatile and dependent on supply-and-demand. In the past, it has skyrocketed like this and then plummeted dramatically. If you look at the historical charts back to the 1970's, you'll see what I mean. It might happen again. I'll probably buy about a gram of rhodium before long so that I have some in case it goes up again, and if it plummets later I'll buy a lot more. Ruthenium is also rather high lately; last I checked it was between $500 and $600/oz. I wonder if it will come down any time soon. As for the other platinum group metals, iridium, osmium, and palladium are trading at close to $400/oz lately. In practice, osmium in solid form usually costs significantly more than the spot price because osmium powder (the usual way that it is supplied) is dangerous to work with and melting it into a lump is therefore rather labor intensive. Platinum has also gone way up in recent years. Last I checked, it was about $1450/oz. It's interesting how all of the precious metals have been going crazy lately. Here are the rhodium charts. http://www.kitco.com/charts/rhodium.htmlHeather Edited by Heather the Hoarder
10/28/2007 12:32 pm
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Valued Member
United States
455 Posts |
gxseries, interesting perspective you have. I say ten fold is ten fold, even if it takes 30 years. Sure, $700 is worth less today than it was then, but still.. Why factor in population?  TS |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2335 Posts |
I don't see any reason to factor in population, but you have to consider the time factor. I don't have exact figures in front of me, but it's probably safe to assume the price has doubled in the last 3 years, which works out to a 24% + annual return, which is pretty good. However, it only doubled 2 & 1/2 times over the preceeding 27 years, which works out to a much less impressive annual rate of around 6%.
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Replies: 21 / Views: 2,179 |
Posted 10/27/2007 8:00 pm
