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Morgan Roll Roulette

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Lucky Cuss's Avatar
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 Posted 04/12/2015  8:10 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Lucky Cuss to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I've said before that I don't understand the willingness (not to mention credulity) of folks to lay down huge bets in the ebay casino.

Take for instance: http://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-Origin...t_846wt_1153

Now at a minimum of over $225 per coin, there's almost no chance this is going to pay off. Plus this particular eBayer does not accept returns and has zero feedback as a seller. But I'll bet somebody takes the bait anyway.

Here's another listing with a suspiciously similar backstory proffered: http://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-Origin...t_846wt_1153

Interesting wrapper, but still a huge roll of the dice. At least this seller has a good track record selling numismatic items.

Here's another roll from this same seller with a different sort of wrapper: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Original-Un..._1622wt_1153

Last tidbit here - it turns out that the first seller made a purchase from the second within the last month. Could it be that the first roll here is being flipped?
Colligo ergo sum
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ArrowsAndRays's Avatar
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1656 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2015  8:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ArrowsAndRays to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Original bank rolls of circulated dollars from the era of dollars in bags.
I'll take two, please.
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dave700x's Avatar
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 Posted 04/12/2015  8:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dave700x to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You have to wonder what the other roll ender looks like in the first link. All end photos are the same end.
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Cascade's Avatar
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7390 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2015  8:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cascade to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Arrows... morgans WERE stored in rolls back then. There are some monster toners out there that have a pattern of folded paper over one side. They are beautiful and prove at least that morgans were roll stored. Don't know about open face rolls though? Nothing screams AT about the end rolls to me but I'monly just getting into spectrum progressions
Edited by Cascade
04/12/2015 8:40 pm
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
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 Posted 04/12/2015  9:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As far as I know (correct me if I'm wrong) coin rolls weren't invented until the early 1900's.

In the right atmosphere, it takes about 5 years or less to create a "monster toner" end roll. That could have been 5 years in the 1940's. Or the 1990's.
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Lucky Cuss's Avatar
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 Posted 04/12/2015  9:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lucky Cuss to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Regardless of whether these rolls are "original bank wrapped" or "unsearchef" (dubious propositions, I admit), my point would be that the math really mitigates against purchasing Morgans in this form. Let's be charitable and assume every coin is in fact an 1878-1904 Morgan in AU/BU condition. Let's assume that only 18 are of the most common issues, and let's be generous in assigning each a retail value of $50. That would be $900 in value. Now if these rolls are selling at $2,000 (a fair estimate based upon what they've already been bid up to), that would mean the two remaining coins would have to each be worth $550 each just to break even. You're really betting on the longshot of there being something like a proof or an 1893-S in there in order for buying one of these rolls to work out in your favor.
Colligo ergo sum
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
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 Posted 04/12/2015  11:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Not even New Math works for that.
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GR58's Avatar
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11951 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2015  11:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GR58 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The biggest problem for me would be.

If this is a real case pre 1921 original bank wrapped
roll.

Who could have owned this roll for lets say .. the last 50 years, and not open it, to see what's inside.

High grade, rare date Morgan's have been in the main stream
media at least twice since the early 1960's.

The chances just seem to rare there is anything of high
value in that roll.
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jdbarrick's Avatar
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350 Posts
 Posted 04/13/2015  01:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jdbarrick to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In my opinion, these rolls are WAY over bid but you know what, maybe the hope of finding something magnificent (again wouldn't be my place to search for this) adds immeasurable excitement and value to the given bidder's life. It's all relative. Kind of like the lottery, statistically one will not win, but it allows people to dream a little. I get it '
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 Posted 04/13/2015  10:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bret to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
With the lottery, you know what you're getting. It's an average return of $0.50 on the dollar (in most states) which is an extremely poor return. With this one the odds are much lower even assuming that the rolls are actually unsearched. Knowing that someone has likely gone through them, this is just ebay gambling for suckers.

"Not one of these rolls has had a coin dated after 1904".
So someone buys then claims that the coins inside the roll were all Eisenhower dollars. I wonder if ebay would pay their money back guarantee?
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
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 Posted 04/13/2015  10:21 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
So someone buys then claims that the coins inside the roll were all Eisenhower dollars. I wonder if ebay would pay their money back guarantee?


Most likely, because then the seller would have to prove they weren't Ikes.
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