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Why Have "Junk Silver" Premiums Gone So High?

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wmc1982's Avatar
United States
13 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2015  6:53 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add wmc1982 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
A few years ago it seems people were buying "junk silver" for under spot price. Now American Eagles are cheaper.

I know there is a collector factor, and also you are getting coins that are over 50 years old instead of bullion which isn't as "special" I guess.

Maybe the question should be "How was "junk silver" ever below or even at spot price? Was it just not popular until recently? If a Franklin is worth $6 I can't find a roll of 20 paying less than $8 per coin. Seems the same buying $100 face value still can't beat the American Eagle.

Should I give up on the Franklins I collect if I can get bullion rounds or bars at the same price, or a tad bit cheaper? Because there's also the melt factor that I read that refineries are charging more to melt 90% silver than .999%.

I like to buy rolls of 20 halves here and there; I used to get only Eagles but I got bored with that. But I don't want to waste money. I have plenty for any emergency barter situation. But as long as the Franklin's hold their premium years down the road I don't mind spending extra. I just don't want to be buying them if this is a high spike premium period of time when a lot of people are just now getting into "junk silver" and it's marking up the prices which will go back down to around spot - $1 an oz.

Any thoughts?

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everything's Avatar
United States
493 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2015  7:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add everything to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Personally? I think fiat is to plentiful, silver has been bottoming out and more people have the prepper mentality regarding silver coinage. Which .. does not really mean anything, over in the kitco gold forum they argued this point, some say get gold in 1/10 vs. bars, seemed to be a split vote, but if the mint in your country that you live in does not have much old coinage, or it's all hoarded up, bars or rounds is it.

And, sigh.. your not alone, the 90% buffs are often asking your same question, some avoid the halves because they are sought after more than say the dimes and quarters.
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ChildOfTheWheat's Avatar
United States
5828 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2015  7:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ChildOfTheWheat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
with everything.
Literally, his name is everything.
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SilverStackerKid's Avatar
United States
6478 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2015  7:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SilverStackerKid to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
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wmc1982's Avatar
United States
13 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2015  7:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wmc1982 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
HA, that was hilarious!

Reminds me to think about those 1/10th AE's. I have only silver but I was hoping for gold to go below $1000 again before investing in that because I only have a few hundred to spend each month. Maybe could get one or two a month. The silver should have the better chance at doubling/tripling it's value at under $20. Think gold will ever go above $3000? I do want to get a bit of gold. I had an Pamp Oz but sold it to help pay for my car (that I totaled a few weeks ago.. :( )
Edited by wmc1982
05/19/2015 7:23 pm
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Cascade's Avatar
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7390 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2015  7:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cascade to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
with everything too... How can one argue the theory of everything

love the name
Edited by Cascade
05/19/2015 7:34 pm
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 Posted 05/20/2015  02:13 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gorgatron to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
This is interesting. I was at a coin shop yesterday where most of the Benjamins were going for about a dollar less than a back-dated SAE ($17-$20 for Benjamins in F+-VF, and $20.50/$21 for SAEs 2014 and older from a tube). I actually like all of them, and my buying practice is simple: What's the best bang for my buck? Okay, not really all that simple once one starts to factor in all the variables. For instance, I can sell this same shop Benjamins for a fair price than a newer SAE that is in MS condition. So, the profit margin is slightly better there when selling Benjamins than SAEs currently. They'll put the screws to you on Morgans in good really good condition, too. They wouldn't even give me an offer on two graded SAEs I took in. One was an 1987 PR69 DCAM and the other a 2008 PF70 DCAM. They claimed there is no market for them. Maybe that's true. Since I haven't sold but 4 coins in the 20+ years I've been collecting off an on, I wouldn't know, except I do know that people buy and sell them on ebay all the time. However, if I had taken in my 1880-s MS65 Morgan, they would have likely made an offer, as they have nothing on their shelves above an MS63. It would have been a horrible offer, since they wanted to buy 2014 and 2015 Canadian MLs at spot, and offered $17 for the 1921 Morgan, so I imagine that it might fetch an offer from them of $100. lol Of course, I'm just talking about one B&M shop I've visited. I had taken an assortment of gold and silver world and US coins to test them out, since they claimed they would buy your entire collection, and not cherry-pick. They cherry-picked, I had a good laugh. I left with my coins. I just wanted to go through the process of selling to see what it's like. I also manage my mother's coin collection, and she has quite a few Benjamins and silver half dollars. She wants to have a look around the shops up here since we come from a small town with none. I'm going to take a few of her best-looking Benjamins to that same shop and see how they react, and since I can compare to what they're selling, see if "junk silver" is truly holding its own around here. Obviously won't be selling to those people. But if Benjamins continue to perform well, I won't discourage her from buying them, since she's more familiar with them, and would probably feel more comfortable negotiating a sell than she would with newer rounds.

TBH, I kind of take a German view when it comes to older coins with .90 silver content, which is that first, they should be valued based on content. Condition comes second, and while it can, and should, have an effect on value, though unless a coin is in pristine condition, PM content and market factors should be driving the price. Fiat or not, the PM content should be key, and I see no reason why a person shouldn't receive, at a minimum, a few points over spot for the PM content. That's just me, though.

Since I move back and forth between the US and Germany every few years, I've also begun noticing that I'm having to develop two mentalities towards collecting. My US coins, with the exception of gold - fractional or otherwise, simply do not perform as well. I'll leave those here and sell them when I'm visiting, I guess, since in two years it looks like I'll be leaving the US for good. This thread offers food for thought for someone like me, though, and perhaps I should pick up some Benjamins when I find a good deal. At worst it seems like a good low-risk investment. If I'm wrong, or you disagree, please let me know. Although I state my opinions...at length...I'm still very much in the learning process. I've always tended to buy bullion when prices are low or I find an auction, virtual or otherwise, where I can pick up bullion at prices between a dollar below spot or a dollar above. With the rare exception of a few graded and ungraded collectible coins, I tend not to deviate from that. As with any other investment, however, I think diversification is a smart move When done wisely. Maybe it wouldn't hurt to have a few hundred dollars invested in some Benjamins or other older US silver.

Thanks for starting the thread. It gives me something to think about and a new angle I hadn't really considered, as my view so far has been rather myopic, and geared towards bullion rounds and bars.

@wmc1982: I am an adjunct and also run a small company that offers various types of language services, or in other words, I don't make a lot of money. I primarily hold silver because it's what I can usually afford. When I do buy gold, I buy fractional. I think you can make you money back, but simply have to be prepared to hold onto it longer and wait for gold to hit the right price. Also have to buy at the right price. That said, I have a 1997 1/4 ounce Krugerrand proof that I get the feeling won't be easy to sell. Fortunately, I picked it up for a very good price several years ago when the price of gold was much lower. But, I question whether I'll ever come close to book value, since it's one of only 1440 proofs from that year, and the few shops I've taken it to to see if there was any interest have looked at me funny because they've not seen one before. You'll probably have better luck and an easier time of making a reasonable profit off a fractional Gold Eagle than some other fractionals. If it's what you can afford, and you're patient, I don't see why you couldn't profit. I've read in a few coin blogs where the authors suggest US fractional gold for people just getting started with gold or are on a budget which makes buying 1 ounce gold coins difficult. Imagine you save and save and just when you want to buy, the price jumps up out of your reach. I'm on a budget, so tend to prefer fractional. I have a few friend who also collect and won't touch anything under an ounce, though. But, they also have the cash which affords them the luxury to have that opinion. I also see it as better than having no gold.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 05/20/2015  10:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Moved this to the Precious Metals forum. The opinions should be plentiful here.
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Earle42's Avatar
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 Posted 05/20/2015  11:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
with everything too... How can one argue the theory of everything

Hemmm... give a whole new twist to the saying, "Don't believe atoms, they make up everything."


My guess is the concept of impending doom for the economy is the cause. Let's face it, despite the nightly praise of media, truth be told we are still economically in a nightmare for many people.

People believe silver will help them through troubled times. I am not educated enough to know the validity of this. You cannot east silver, and I *think* food would the a main concern - initially at least.
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
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KenKat's Avatar
United States
4085 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2015  12:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KenKat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Every silver coin has a "silver value" and a "numismatic value". When silver is at a high price, the silver value trumps any numismatic value for junk silver coins and so that is what drives the price - i.e., a Franklin going for $15 in silver value is all that matters. But when that drops to $6, people start to say "hmmm, I wouldn't mind having that as a collectible coin, not just for melt value" and so that starts to drive the price upward from the melt value, which is now low.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 05/20/2015  2:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I pretty much agree with the post above.

I see numismatic value and silver value as independent from each other since the markets are different. One market is the collector, the other the stacker. The value of any coin depends on which market wants it more.
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Joe2007's Avatar
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3843 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2015  11:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Joe2007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Premiums are different in every venue. In my area junk silver (including AU Franklins) is readily available at local shops for spot +10%.
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
United States
4333 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2015  05:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Scince getting back into the hobby around 2007, I don't recall ever finding junk silver at or below face. I know few people that do. Premiums haven't changed much at all here, 5-10% over spot.

Edit: junk silver at or below spot.
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Roll hunting since '77
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Edited by fistfulladirt
05/21/2015 4:36 pm
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JoggingLiberty's Avatar
292 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2015  11:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JoggingLiberty to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Coin roll hunting... We find silver at face all the time
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
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 Posted 05/21/2015  4:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Coin roll hunting... We find silver at face all the time
Ya got me there JL!
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Libertad's Avatar
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 05/31/2015  3:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I read that refineries are charging more to melt 90% silver than .999%.

You don't need to refine .999 metals unless you are not 100% sure of its provenance or doubt its authenticity.


Quote:
People believe silver will help them through troubled times.

Silver has helped me rebuild, in that it helped pay for some of my college education. But one cannot rely on it as a crutch; I got very lucky.
Edited by Libertad
05/31/2015 3:57 pm
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