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Long Term Collecting Goals...

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scottk's Avatar
United States
767 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  11:42 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add scottk to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Hello. I haven't been here in a couple of months.

I thought of a question I would like opinions on.

For some reason, I got this idea of what I want to do with coin collecting. I am fascinated by old copper coins - mainly later date large cents, but I like just about all types from colonial on up through the braided hair series. I have a large 3 ring binder, that could easily hold 50 or 60 pages full of coins, though I only have 3 pages in it right now, one filled with 16 old coppers.

I'm 32, so 30 years or so til retirement. If I fill this binder up with 50 or 60 or 100 pages of old copper coins, so that it's overflowing after 30 years, do you think that would help with my retirement?

I'm doing it right now because I love doing it, but I got to thinking of the investment aspect...
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  12:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think it's been said many, many times in the past, never think of coins as an investment. Same with any hobby. Most hobbies come and go although coins have been sort of a steady one for a long time. As a person that has collected coins for well over 60 years, Just not an easy item to sell. Yes I guess I could put them up on ebay, take to a coin show, take to a coin store, but would never get what I think or hope they would be worth. And for sure, not enough to use as a retirement source. I just stick with stocks and bonds for that.
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Conder101's Avatar
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17884 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  12:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
do you think that would help with my retirement?

Sure, so will finding a quarter in the parking lot. Anything that provides money will HELP with your retirement, but if you are asking if it can be a significant portion of your "retirement portfolio" I wouldn't count on it unless you are able to fill the pages with nice MS early copper.
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scottk's Avatar
United States
767 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  1:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add scottk to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I hope to add some MS coins, but the ones I have are mostly vf-xf.

I went to the LCS yesterday, and looked at a few of his pages of f-au braided hair large cents. Then after I left, I started wondering what he would say if I asked "how much per page".

I would guess he would try for about $60 per coin, so $60 * 20 coins per page = $1200 per page * 60 pages = $72,000

Now if I had 2 or 3 binders like that...

that would be a heck of a lot of coins to buy.

Well whatever... just a thought.
Edited by scottk
06/05/2015 1:20 pm
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tkbslc's Avatar
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1158 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  1:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tkbslc to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yeah, but you'd have spend $72,000 to acquire them, too. And you aren't a dealer, so you'd get maybe 70% of that when you sell it back. So you are actually doing worse than just saving $100 bills under the mattress. Even if the coins raise in value a little, you still might not cover your initial cost after selling expenses.

60 pages of those $60 coins over 30 years would mean you've spent $200 a month. Compared to traditional investing, you are making negative interest. If we use a conservative 8% return on a mutual fund portfolio instead, you'd have $230K saving $200 a month for 30 years. Even if we use an extremely safe investment and only get 3%, you are still at $120k over 30 years. Coins don't make compound interest.

Now coins can definitely be an important part of your assets and a good diversification. It's a nice hobby that usually doesn't result in much net cost (you get back a lot of what you put into it if you get out) I just don't think as a primary investment vehicle, you are going to get the kind of retirement you are hoping for by putting it all in coins.







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Gyrene7483's Avatar
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1704 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  1:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Gyrene7483 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Long term collecting goals.
My long term collecting goals are to:

Complete a non standard custom Liberty Seated Type set in AU/MS condition.

Complete a PCGS MS 64/65 set of Liberty Walking half dollars 1933-47.

Complete the following Capital Plastics holders
1935 to 45 Mercury dime short set in BU
Largest Regular Production Gold Coins
Proof Washington quarters 1936-64
# 490 20th Century Type Coins holder
# 424 D 20th Type Dollars

These are just some of the things I would like to accomplish. Note I did not, nor will, state that any of these are for investment purposes or for my retirement. I am basically disability retired now so to say I am collecting for my retirement does not really apply. I collect because I enjoy doing so and if there does come a time in the future I want/need to sell any or all of my collection I would be happy if I got most of what I paid for the coins back. A profit would be nice.
Valued Member
United States
317 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  3:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PennyPiggy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You need to come up with a retirement number then figure out a conservative traditional rate of return on whatever means you elect whether collectibles, stocks, savings, metals, whatever and see if your goals are realistic.

I read something many years ago that money spent on one's education created the most return on investment followed by stocks. I don't remember where collectibles fell.

I really don't like collectibles as investments because of the harsh taxes of collectibles vs tax free growth in a retirement fund. I see them more like heirlooms.
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 Posted 06/05/2015  4:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Tryna to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Common grades in common dates will never be a good investmen. Even if a $50 coin doubles in 30 years you will get out of it little more than it cost you. Then add in inflation and you have lost money.

If you wish to speculate in coins (almost always you are speculating more than investing with things like coins)get an old RedBook and a new RedBook. You are talking a 30 year return so get a 1985 RedBook and a 2015 RedBook and compare. Look for the coins that have more than doubled in value in that period.

I would look across the grade spectrum not just the super high end grades. I think you will find just a hanfull of the key dates in popular series will have gone up 250% or more in all grades.

Next compare what you would have gotten if in 1985 you would have put your money in other investments. My bet is that you would have done better in a CD or Bonds then you could do in coins.
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matttheriley's Avatar
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 Posted 06/05/2015  5:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add matttheriley to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Next compare what you would have gotten if in 1985 you would have put your money in other investments. My bet is that you would have done better in a CD or Bonds then you could do in coins.


But you would of had a load less of fun with CDs or Bonds! They are just not that interesting!
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Gyrene7483's Avatar
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 Posted 06/05/2015  5:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Gyrene7483 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I see them more like heirlooms.
Then your heirs pay harsh inheritance taxes.
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BuckeyeCoinGuy's Avatar
United States
711 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  6:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BuckeyeCoinGuy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I say do it. As long as it is discretionary income, coins are about the best hobby investment out there outside of learning skills.


As for retirement, still plan for that. At 32 you will likely never see any government based retirement, other than the taxes of course.
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 Posted 06/05/2015  6:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add YoshiRules to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If anything, I have (in the past) bought up silver coins. That way, at least they will hold their value over time so they would still have value when/if I get older/retire.
If I had $100 to spend on coins, I would honestly rather have silver stuffs rather than a copper or two (then again, I am not too fond of the old coppers).

Investing in ANYTHING is tricky because you just don't know if their prices will rise or fall, even with the help of "economic analysts".
Edited by YoshiRules
06/05/2015 6:50 pm
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BuckeyeCoinGuy's Avatar
United States
711 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  6:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BuckeyeCoinGuy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The more I think about it though, I am not so sure that Large Cents are where I would put my money unless at the high end.

Don't get me wrong, I got some Large Cents, maybe 15 or 20 and only one of them is AU and it isn't my Draped Bust Cent either.

I don't put money into my Large Cent collection with hopes of return though, just scratching an itch.


To me, if you are buying Large Cents at retail with the hope of resale, you need to have a reason why these coins are going to go up in value.

They aren't precious metals so you don't have that floor pushing up the price on the low end of the market. It is really more of a supply and demand thing at the lower end of the market like a binder full of 2x2's.

So the supply is static and the demand, well it is a market for older men generally. So you have a loss of collector's yearly due to death or lack of finances in retirement. You have some portion of younger guys joining the market with their discretionary income.

Currently we have a population bubble of baby boomers or older as the primary coin collectors. Just on demographics, there won't be enough new collectors to stimulate demand much if any. Throw in the fact that the economic chances for the younger generations who need to replace the older collectors leaving the market are not as good as prior generations and you have a decent case for decreased demand at the lower end of the market.

I tend to think people going forward will have less discretionary income to spend on coins, not more. Another strike against demand.


I can't build a good case for increasing demand in lower end Large Cents.



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scottk's Avatar
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767 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2015  7:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add scottk to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yeah, it's just a sort of daydream like winning the lottery or whatever. I like to picture myself in the future with a big fat overflowing binder that I can barely lift full of nothing but nice old copper coins... just starting to part them out and sell them so I can go live in a shack in Bolivia for the rest of my life, looking through a telescope all night, and carousing with the locals all day, arguing that a pound of shrimp is $1 not $1.25!

Ha!
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Elimist's Avatar
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632 Posts
 Posted 06/06/2015  12:47 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Elimist to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I wouldn't even consider retirement plans when collecting. If you love your collection enough to build it over 30 years I doubt you'll want to sell it when the time comes and you'll likely to not get anywhere close to what you would want from them.

I'm 26 and don't have a huge amount of expendable income so I sometimes come across the same dilemma where I think that putting thousands of dollars into my collection when I don't even have enough money to afford stuff like health insurance or a new vehicle down payment if my current ride breaks down. Plus I don't have a retirement account.

So what do I do when I want to collect but feel like it needs to be something liquidable and not a 200 year old coin I know I couldn't part with? I buy rounds and bars. Getting a 10 oz silver bar is still cool but if the time comes and I need some cash I know I could sell it. Plus, if I buy and sell right I could potentially make some money. Buying silver is kind of my short-term strategy to hoard cash. It's $200 sitting in a silver brick and not a spendable $200 sitting in my bank account that would probably just go towards beer and DVD's if left there.
Edited by Elimist
06/06/2015 12:49 am
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Conder101's Avatar
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17884 Posts
 Posted 06/06/2015  10:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Then your heirs pay harsh inheritance taxes.

Only if you have a REALLY big estate. I believe right now the first million an heir inherits is exempt from inheritance taxes, and then you have the fact that when your heir sells the inherited coins, for tax purposes the cost basis is the value they had when they were inherited NOT the cost the deceased paid for them. Say a collector builds a collection ad spends 100K on it. and it is now estimated at 500K. Now say the collector sells it for that. He pays capital gains on 400K at 28% or 112K. Now instead say he dies and leaves it to an heir. It is under a million so no inheritance taxes. Then a year later the heir sells it for 520K His taxable basis is only 20K because the cost basis is the value when he inherited it so he only pays 5.6K in taxes.
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