|
This page may contain links that result in small commissions to keep this free site up and running.
Welcome Guest! Registering and/or logging in will remove the anchor (bottom) ads. It's Free!
To participate in the forum you must log in or register. | Author |
 Replies: 12 / Views: 1,823 |
|
|
Valued Member
United States
467 Posts |
We all know there are a lot of fakes out there, and as we get better at figuring them out they get better at faking them. And with that increase in fakes, even the safe haven of NGC and PCGS seem at risk with fake holders. Now, last night, I saw a post, since locked, which showed 1931-S Lincoln Cent fakes for sale on ebay. Now, I have always been upfront that one of the reasons I am nervous about fakes is that I am just not that good at picking them out yet. But even I, with my lack of skills, was able to see the 1931-S red Lincoln was no good. There would have been no worries about me bidding on them. But others were bidding. But I have already pretty much stopped work on my Dansco type album. I am not confident I can buy the Seated Liberty coins or the large cents, 20 cent piece, etc. without risk of accidentally buying a counterfeit. I am not even sure I could buy a Peace dollar and be 100% certain about my purchase, to tell you the truth. With that being said, my other worry is for the hobby itself, and selfishly, for my current investment. I have only bought because I love to collect. I am driven to finish whatever I am working on and I enjoy the heck out of doing it. So it really is about the coins. However, I also know that this is a very expensive hobby. My hope has always been to get my original investment at the time back when I sell one day, adjusted for inflation. I don't expect to make money, so the cost of the hobby would be the cost of the lost interest I could have received if I had just thrown the money into interest bearing investments instead. I was able to live with that cost of the hobby. What I don't want to live with is losing the potential increase from interest lost AND the original investment on top of that. The reason is that no one in my family has any interest and I always intended to sell my coins at some point after retirement so that I could enjoy something else with the funds or my heirs could. So now I fear that the hobby will disappear. Maybe not only because of the fakes, but because of the aging demographics, the shifting trends in what people find interesting (i.e. electronics), etc. All the things that are constantly debated all the time and maybe the hobby is dying and maybe it isn't. But fakes are certainly another nail in the coffin. But going back to the 1931-S, it was a real tipping point for me. Plus the 1932-D that was posted the other day (quarter). Those are not die hard experts only that buy those Lincoln Cent coins, those are newer and looser collectors as well. I would never have bought either of those, so my limited experience has helped me there, but plenty of people would and I believe plenty of people were bidding on the 1931-S. I see one of two likely scenarios happening. There are other possibilities, but I will list two only. The first is that the person discovers they have been swindled and abandons the hobby. Or the person doesn't discover they have been swindled. This is just as bad because that means people are buying all the fakes and so the fakes keep coming and the supply becomes higher than demand and then my real MS-63 red brown 1931-S Lincoln becomes worth far less than it is today. So either way we all lose. I am thinking of selling off everything while it still has any value. But I have to satisfy my collecting bug. So I was hoping to get opinions on what people would consider safe to collect from a value standpoint in the assumption that the hobby does start to die off from fakes and other reasons. Examples of what I could consider continuing to collect: I am thinking my heavily circulated barber half, Walking Liberty half and Franklin half sets would be kept, because there are no super expensive keys (21-D, etc. but in circulated I think the value of the overall set would still probably be okay). At least 74 barber halfs will have some silver value if nothing else. What else would you assume would always be sellable even in the post fake, world with far fewer buyers? Examples of what would not be safe in my mind: my Lincoln collection. Pretty high grade circulated, including PCGS xf40 09 s vdb and vf20 22 plain. The semi -keys are not slabbed but all at least Fine. Or do you see Lincoln as retaining value because it is just so famous and collectible? I need to know if I am dead wrong before I sell off all my stuff! My half completed type set would have to be sold because it would lose value if no one felt safe enough to buy a Trade dollar, let alone a book full of things like that. Sorry about the very long post, but I am really trying to decide what to do here. It isn't another rant about fakes (well, I guess it kind of is). It is also another rant about the changing environment of the hobby. I want to collect. More than anything I want to keep collecting coins. I truly love it. But I truly believe what I collect may have to change because I don't want to just toss money in the garbage, even if it brings me joy (not tossing money in the garbage, but collecting it in albums). Has anyone else felt this way or is thinking about shifting what they collect, based on the changing environment? |
|
|
|
Rest in Peace
United States
18456 Posts |
The reason I'm not worried about fakes is I usually buy only nice circulated common coins that Isn't usually are a target for counterfeiters .
By no means is this 100% foolproof, But I guess you can say I'm contented with my collecting habits of $15 to $40 per coin.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
214 Posts |
I have resigned my self to leaving the 1909s and 2014d holes in my LWC collection blank, since I suspect that the majority of the available ones out there are probably counterfeit anyway. I went through the no no site looking at the counterfeits available, and discovered that they sell counterfeits of every coin, even pennies from the the 40s and 50s that you can still find in change rolls and at coin shops in AU condition for less than the cost of the counterfeits. The chinese counterfeits are improving in quality to the point where it will not be possible to identify them, so I will never be buying anything rare unless I know the collector personally and the history of the coin itself. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
711 Posts |
Fakes make numismatics tough.
In a situation with concerns like yours, numismatics are almost impossible, yet you want to.
I think your instinct of going for more circulated common coins makes sense.
Maybe go from a collector of fine coins to a hoarder of common ones?
I don't think junk silver would scratch your itch too much though.
Maybe look into lower grade raw gold coins? I know there are a lot of fakes here too, but you are buying more the metal than the coin, you just get the enjoyment of the coin too. Personally I love the $5 Liberty Head Half Eagles. You can get decent looking coins for $275 - $350 no problem at retail. Melt is around $260 now. As long as you are getting a real coin, you down side numismatically is limited to the premium above melt and of course a decline in melt value too.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
2624 Posts |
Fair concerns, and I think they are partly valid.
I know my coins are real, but at some point in the future with fakes getting better and better will someone else? If they reach the point that the fakes are as good as the original then all value will be gone.
This does effect my buying habits a little. I think I am going to hedge my bets with more bullion type coins. I don't really like them too much but silver and gold will always have a value whether it is in a fake coin or not. I think buying from a creditable source/dealer and buying coins with bullion value the money is fairly safe long term (and likely to grow over the next 30 years rather than shrink)
I agree it is a concern but it is not only fakes... if we ever move to a cashless society (which I don't think is likely short-term) the value of coins will drop sharply since they will be irrelevant to everyday life. Much the way phonecards devalued by 90% when the mobile phone took off.
|
|
Rest in Peace
United States
17900 Posts |
First let me say that nothing I'm about to offer here negates your feelings of insecurity concerning fakes, nor your honest concern about the aging of the collector population. Fakes have been around almost as long as coins have been minted. In some cases, as in some of the tougher (more expensive) Roman rulers or family, it is still easier to find real 2000 year old coins for those personages as compared to those that were produced to deceive. There are those ancient collectors who take great delight, in fact, in searching for contemporary counterfeits. Additionally, regardless of the governmental restrictions or harsh punishments, there hasn't been a single instance that I can think of when coinage wasn't copied. Usually to deceive in commerce, rather than to deceive collectors, but still produced. One of the first coin books I ever read (way back in the early 1970's) filled several hundred pages with how to spot counterfeit US coins. How to detect if a D had been shaved off that 1922 Lincoln wheat, how to look for a cast copy, how to use the weight to help determine authenticity. Today, in this electronic world where everything that happens is in your face moments after it occurs, it is easy to believe that counterfeiting is more of a threat now than it was 20 years ago, or 50 years ago. But that just isn't true. Even with the waves of (usually VERY easy to detect) China Syndrome monstrosities, we are not being bombarded by counterfeits more than we were. The only thing that's changed is that forums like this one make it possible for every single bad coin found to get pushed in your face - sometimes many, many times. The TPG's, likewise, have helped us insure that the 1922 Lincoln really is a plain (not a Philadelphia, thank you), and that the 1885 Liberty nickel you want to buy hasn't had the date "metal pushed" to form that tougher 5, or that the vast majority of the fake 1895 Morgan's, which have been around forever, are spotted and identified as such. In fact, for the majority of collectors who do dabble or are exclusively purchasing TPG's the chance of buying a fake high value coin is pretty darned slim. If you go to any medium to large coin show and try to find a bad coin, the chances are you will never see even one. The new fake slabs that are being produced are easy to spot if you have one in your hands, too. Granted, if you've never owned or seen too many Saint Gaudens in an NGC or PCGS slab it's possible to get nailed, but that possibility is still so small as to be nearly non-existent. I also have no doubt that within the next 20 years someone will come up with a computer program so that they can pop a coin into a slide area, let the computer read all the information on the coins two surfaces, weigh the coin at the same time, designate a precise die pair if you so desire, and give a point grade based on abrasions, nicks, scuffs, or whatever else you want to call the imperfections on an uncirculated coin, even narrowing down where those abrasions are located to determine importance. That computer can, with some programming specifics, assign a circulated grade too. And, if you happen to be the only person to have ever discovered a 1944-s Walker with a full strike, you win the big trophy. Where the TPG's have helped eliminate a ton of counterfeits during their reign simply by making it easier for the average collector to see examples that they are sure about (okay 99.99999 percent sure about), such a new computer program will just about destroy any further chance of copies being made. If you are that afraid of counterfeits, buy only TPG's you trust. I would like to conclude by saying that not so long ago you couldn't turn on a radio or TV without hearing about the Ebola virus. It was in your face 24 hours a day and every time something changed it was being reported. This is NOT to denigrate those who did suffer that terrible disease. But it is to remind you that during that time there were HUNDREDS of people who went to hospitals thinking they had contracted Ebola (none of them had). Kids were kept out of school. Certain shopping areas were not frequented. In short, the media had caused a lot of perfectly normal, sane people to lose their perspective. With the CONSTANT stream of FAKE=FAKE=FAKE we see here today, many of you may also lose your perspective. Fakes are not new. Fakes are generally easy to determine. The more practice you have, the easier it becomes. If you don't want to risk your money on your own opinion, buy TPG. If you worry about TPG's, buy your TPG from a reputable seller. There are hundreds of them. If you can't trust yourself, don't trust the TPG's, and don't trust the reputable dealer who would sell you that TPG - then by all means bail. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
856 Posts |
I think moxking makes some very good points. Clearly everyone needs to take what steps they feel necessary to reassure themselves about their purchases. It's a hobby after all and needs to be something to get pleasure from, not to cause you sleepless nights. However it might be of interest that the vast majority of coins (I'd say 90% or more) bought and sold in the UK (including top grade and price examples) are raw. Yes, there are fakes. Most poor, but a few quite convincing. But British collectors generally rely on learning about the coins they collect, forums like this one and buying from reputable sources to reassure themselves that their purchases are genuine. Yes, TPG can provide some guarantees, although it's worth remembering that that authentication was not the main reason that system was set up. But the converse might also be true, in that over-reliance upon someone else's opinion might be more problematic in the future than trust in your own knowledge and experience. . |
|
Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
2624 Posts |
Thoughtful posts Moxking and Tom. I cited an example of technology improving making the fakes better (thinking of 3d printing etc) and you quite rightly state that technology might also be used to detect fakes... interesting perspective. Tom is right about the UK too... I have only ever bought one slabbed coin, and that is only because it was a mule type that is commonly sold on ebay as a scam (dateless 20p... they post each side of two different coins) In all my time I never bought a fake, except for last week from a dealer who gave me a refund despite the belief that it is genuine (and it is still being debated) Familiarity with the coin you are buying is the best defence. Which is a shame since most of us want to buy new pieces we aren't necessarily familiar with. I used to work in a pawn brokers, and know what gold looks like and handled a large number of watches. I never took gold plated or a fake watch in 8 years there. People would show me a watch through the glass screen and say "do you pawn watches" and I would say "yes, but only genuine ones..." They were astounded by how I knew the watch was fake while still wearing it. The answer is simply experience - if you are used to seeing and feeling the real thing every day then a cheap imitation is usually obvious. It isn't 1 particular thing you are looking for but a general knowledge of the design, weight and feel of the thing. Anyway, as I say I don't worry so much about the fakes I just hope that the following generations take up the reigns. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
6370 Posts |
Just wait until 3-D printed dies are made. Every single rule will be changes as they will exactly match any real variety, and the imperections of previous die transfer processes will be eliminated for the most part. If NASA can 3-D print metal components that are of the tolerance needed for air or space flight, then someone, in theory, could 3-D print a set of dies with every minute detail correct. The only inhibitor would be the $500,000 - $1,000,000 cost of the machine.
|
|
Valued Member
 United States
467 Posts |
Thank you everyone for taking the time to give such great responses. It is genuinely appreciated. I think everyone has given very valid commentary and make excellent points. I have a lot of food for thought and things to contemplate. For instance, I had not previously considered the idea that I see more fakes than the average person and they have always existed and it just seems more rampant to me because of the internet and ebay and the forum and the hobby I chose, etc. I completely get that and will have to give it some serious consideration. Just like with the 24/7 news channel, we hear about every smallest thing that happens anywhere even though crazy stuff has always happened. So it seems like the world has gone crazy when it reality, I just know more about the craziness than I did before. Could be the same thing with fakes. I also agree that the more I educate myself the better I am going to be able to sleep at night about my coins. And I am working diligently on getting better at that. Although to be clear, the main angst I have isn't about my coins being fake—it is about my coins that are real. It is about other people not collecting anymore and so the supply/demand ratio drives the value of my current coins down. That may be for many reasons, of course, fake coins only being one. This is turn is what made me wonder if I could be just as satisfied collecting in a different way and wondering how that different way would look. And most to point-- have other people switched how they collect and what did that switch look like. As was questioned, would I be satisfied collecting junk silver? I am not sure. But I do prefer extra fine circulated silver over any other type of coin to collect. Never tried gold, but it was a good suggestion. I am a little afraid to catch that bug as I will be broke quickly. But as also inferred earlier, these are decisions that only I have to make and I just need to make it, lol. A lot to think about, probably no quick decision; maybe think about it over Turkey next week! |
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Kind of to late to worry about fakes. They are getting better and better all the time. And as already noted, even the TPGS slabs are now being faked. This is just the standard thing that happens with anything of value. Look at how many fakes there are of oil paintings. And it doesn't stop with valuable STUFF. Ever look at things like Duracal, Dinocell, etc. Even with just batteries there are many, many fakes out there. With the auto industry all such fakes are just called after market reproductions and are used as if real. IF you make something, someone will make a copy regardless of what it is or how much it's worth. Way to late to worry about this now.
And I guarantee that many, many collectors and dealers have fakes and don't know. Some fakes are just as good as real.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
856 Posts |
Personally I think people will still collect coins, even if we stop actually using the things. People collect all sorts of things no longer commonly used or even manufactured because they are attractive, interesting, provide a link to history etc..
The coins I collect are quite old. I like that. Someone in the mid-1600s handled the coins in my collection. Spent them on things they needed or wanted. They are small pieces of art, the dies made using hand crafted punches, each coin unique having been hand struck.
While the denomination (one shilling) was one I remember in use and spending, I never saw coins like these when I was young - they went out of circulation 300 years before I was born! But that doesn't lessen their appeal to me.
OK, I get the concern about whether coins will keep their relative value. That's difficult to predict, although generally the rarer, better grade examples will, like antiques, cars, wine or other collectables, prove a decent investment over the longer term.
Commoner, lesser grade examples I suspect will struggle. One only needs to look around charity / thrift stores or 'antique' markets to see many examples of things our forefathers produced cheaply in large quantities, generally selling for very little.
I don't believe it's generally a good idea to think of collecting coins as an investment. It's a hobby. But I think in common with most investments, you get out in proportion to what you put in. If you buy the best you can afford you'll probably do better than if you by lots of low value items.
Well, that's my opinion anyway!
.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts |
Quote:
Although to be clear, the main angst I have isn't about my coins being fake—it is about my coins that are real. It is about other people not collecting anymore and so the supply/demand ratio drives the value of my current coins down. That may be for many reasons, of course, fake coins only being one. I have had the same thoughts of selling off my coin collection because of the fakes, and the long term stability of the hobby. I collect because I enjoy coins and I am not going to let some fake coins stop me from collecting. Gold and Silver is not going to go out of style as it is a limited resource. If the price of gold and silver increases, the price of gold and silver coins are going to increase. A Morgan or Peace dollar is a big chunk of silver that is always going to have at least the melt value regardless of the coin collecting future. With any type of investment there is risk as I have lost and made money in real estate and the stock market. About a year ago I took some money that I made in the stock market and purchased coins, and it has been a lot more fun than looking at a companies balance sheet and trying to predict future growth. If the coin market goes down, then I will use the down trend to buy some coins that I could not afford. |
| |
Replies: 12 / Views: 1,823 |
|
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us | Advertise Here | Privacy Policy / Terms of Use
|
| Coin Community Forum |
© 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Forums |
| It took 0.42 seconds to rattle this change. |
 |
|
| |
| |
Posted 11/18/2015 11:58 am
