Posted 10/12/2016 10:26 pm
Bluesheet bid represents the LOWEST bid seen on CPX (now called CDNX) or on active/ended auctions for a given date and MM of a particular coin. The assumption is sight-unseen bids on PCGS or NGC coins without CAC approval. In other words, this is the least amount of money you can expect to pay for that coin under normal circumstances.
Greysheet bid represents the HIGHEST bid seen on CDNX or bids entered/sale prices realized from auctions for that same coin. The assumption here is sight-seen bids on PCGS or NGC coins which are solid in the grade (not over or under.) These days, almost all Greysheet bid prices are for coins in PCGS/NGC slabs -- under JD's direction CDN is really making Bluesheet more of "what's the bottom of the market" report and Greysheet a "what's the average market" report.
Example: A (pick a date) NGC 63RB cent of average quality is listed for sale on a dealer exchange network. Dealer A, without even looking at the coin, bids $45 for it just based on the coin, the holder and the stated grade. Dealer B enters a bid for that coin at $70 sight-seen, and Dealer C offers $80. Meanwhile, in the last couple of months, 4 other coins sold at auctions: a really choice CAC green stickered 63 RB in a PCGS OGH for $125, an average 63RB in a new NGC holder that didn't get much attention and sold for $60, a 63RB in a PCGS rattler that's retoned in the holder to BN and has a weak strike for $65, and an ANACS small white holder coin graded 63RB which has outstanding eye appeal sold for $90.
They take all of those results, in this case, and average them up, and whatever that average is, sets the new Greysheet bid for that particular coin at that particular grade level.
In other words, if a dealer wanted to buy that particular NGC 63RB cent, they would reasonably expect to pay anywhere from $45 for a coin they've never even seen to $125 sight-seen for a choice example with great eye appeal and CAC approval.
The value for any coin over a given time period can be determined pretty much this way: (sum of all recorded sales) / (number of auction appearances) - to me this is the only "true" price guide, and even then, it's only useful if a coin trades enough to make it useful. If 50 1898-S Morgan dollars in NGC MS64 holders have sold on ebay, at Heritage, at Stacks, etc. over the last 6 months, for a total of $42,000 in sales, you can estimate that the "average" 1898-S Morgan in an NGC MS64 holder should sell for around $840, with that number varying up or down based on over/undergrading, eye appeal, toning, strike, CAC approval, VAM type, provenance, and a host of other variables, with maybe an overgraded by 1-step coin with a poor strike and ugly toning going for $650, and a really high end 64 with a green CAC, attractive toning, and a sharp strike going for $1120, just to throw some numbers out there. I pay more for coins I like, and I pay less for coins I don't like.
My only opinion on crackouts is this: do what you like. You're collecting for you, not for me, for him, for her, or for Joe Public, or anyone else, except maybe your kids. Do what makes you happy. Someday, God forbid, if you are in failing health and must face the prospect that your children will be inheriting your collection, that would be a great time to get it slabbed. TPG gradeflation has been creeping up steadily for years, so if you crack out a MS63 now and store it safely, there's a chance that your kids/grandkids might end up with a 65 when they get it reholdered 20-40 or however many years later. (That may not be such a good thing, though -- the populations of MS64/MS65 coins for certain series continue to grow at a fast enough pace that values are starting to fall noticeably as former condition rarities have their rarities made non-rarities by gradeflation.)
JMHO.
Greysheet bid represents the HIGHEST bid seen on CDNX or bids entered/sale prices realized from auctions for that same coin. The assumption here is sight-seen bids on PCGS or NGC coins which are solid in the grade (not over or under.) These days, almost all Greysheet bid prices are for coins in PCGS/NGC slabs -- under JD's direction CDN is really making Bluesheet more of "what's the bottom of the market" report and Greysheet a "what's the average market" report.
Example: A (pick a date) NGC 63RB cent of average quality is listed for sale on a dealer exchange network. Dealer A, without even looking at the coin, bids $45 for it just based on the coin, the holder and the stated grade. Dealer B enters a bid for that coin at $70 sight-seen, and Dealer C offers $80. Meanwhile, in the last couple of months, 4 other coins sold at auctions: a really choice CAC green stickered 63 RB in a PCGS OGH for $125, an average 63RB in a new NGC holder that didn't get much attention and sold for $60, a 63RB in a PCGS rattler that's retoned in the holder to BN and has a weak strike for $65, and an ANACS small white holder coin graded 63RB which has outstanding eye appeal sold for $90.
They take all of those results, in this case, and average them up, and whatever that average is, sets the new Greysheet bid for that particular coin at that particular grade level.
In other words, if a dealer wanted to buy that particular NGC 63RB cent, they would reasonably expect to pay anywhere from $45 for a coin they've never even seen to $125 sight-seen for a choice example with great eye appeal and CAC approval.
The value for any coin over a given time period can be determined pretty much this way: (sum of all recorded sales) / (number of auction appearances) - to me this is the only "true" price guide, and even then, it's only useful if a coin trades enough to make it useful. If 50 1898-S Morgan dollars in NGC MS64 holders have sold on ebay, at Heritage, at Stacks, etc. over the last 6 months, for a total of $42,000 in sales, you can estimate that the "average" 1898-S Morgan in an NGC MS64 holder should sell for around $840, with that number varying up or down based on over/undergrading, eye appeal, toning, strike, CAC approval, VAM type, provenance, and a host of other variables, with maybe an overgraded by 1-step coin with a poor strike and ugly toning going for $650, and a really high end 64 with a green CAC, attractive toning, and a sharp strike going for $1120, just to throw some numbers out there. I pay more for coins I like, and I pay less for coins I don't like.
My only opinion on crackouts is this: do what you like. You're collecting for you, not for me, for him, for her, or for Joe Public, or anyone else, except maybe your kids. Do what makes you happy. Someday, God forbid, if you are in failing health and must face the prospect that your children will be inheriting your collection, that would be a great time to get it slabbed. TPG gradeflation has been creeping up steadily for years, so if you crack out a MS63 now and store it safely, there's a chance that your kids/grandkids might end up with a 65 when they get it reholdered 20-40 or however many years later. (That may not be such a good thing, though -- the populations of MS64/MS65 coins for certain series continue to grow at a fast enough pace that values are starting to fall noticeably as former condition rarities have their rarities made non-rarities by gradeflation.)
JMHO.
Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890
"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis
"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis
