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 Replies: 16 / Views: 3,687 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
The Pogue sales of classic US coins realized about $107 million. The ex ante expectation was $200 million, so it only realized 54 percent of the expected value. That is pretty disappointing. The two stars of the sale were expected to realize $15 million but came in under $4 million each. Is this evidence of decline in coin collecting? IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Valued Member
299 Posts |
....yes ; especially in the upper stratosphere of prices as this sale demonstrates.
Coin collecting in general is suffering the same fate as bowling, golf, stamp collecting, etc.
The greying of enthusiasts and the rise of new ever more popular pastimes with the endless competition for your money and attention are powerful adversaries.
I've been collecting since 1962 when things were very different and have seen a lot come and go. But local coin shops here have done nothing but "go" for the last 10 or 15 years until there are none remaining in the county. And the oldest largest bowling alley closed. And the 18 hole golf course near my house just got sold for housing.
Things rise and wane in popularity. With few new collectors and horrendous modern Mint offerings at high prices, even a veteran like me loses interest. Metals prices are prohibitive to younger persons and many of the modern Mint issues are ghastly to behold.
Edited by freddo30
05/12/2017 6:54 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10034 Posts |
I also feel that since there is no longer intrinsic value in the circulating coinage, in fact it loses value, there is not as much interest. I know I personally have very little interest for anything much past 2000 (picked a nice round number to stop) except for silver proof halves. No, I am not in coins for the PM value, but I also don;t like putting things away as "collectable" that I know will lessen in value over time either. I also lay some of the blame on the TPGs. Their popularity growth (since internet sales came into being) has simultaneously put an unwarranted psychological focus and narrowing onto key dates. Everything, if not a key date, is now just "junk silver." It used to be every coin had a value based on condition, mint mark, and mintage. This was fun. There was some of the hobby excitment and fun when finding a coin you knew you did not have. You took it home, looked it up, and saw how it compared with all the others of the series. Think about it - all the fun with each (the majority) of coins that are now "junk silver" is gone. The majority of the hobby fun was killed. Those days are gone now that a lot of people (especially newbies in the last 20 years) have been brought into a hobby with the false impression that every key needs to be slabbed so profit can be maximized when sold. People also are now encouraged to throw money at a TPG for verification/grade, rather than having the fun of spending their time with the coin, researching it, and learning about how to make a good evaluation of the coin for themselves. It cheapens the experience of the hobby for sure. How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash? Download and read: Grading the graders Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halveshttps://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2 |
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
11880 Posts |
In some ways, as a collector, I feel that lucky. Sometimes I am amazed that stuff that I thought was outside my reach is now more reasonable. The premium for a beautiful common date and grade coin seems small, and I try to take full advantage. I am surprised that type coin collecting has taken so long to make headway in popularity. As a buyer, I think that this may be the best of times, although better times may arrive further down the road.
I think it should be the case that valuable coins should have an interesting story attached, as well as technical grading merits.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.comEdited by numismatic student
05/12/2017 7:44 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5822 Posts |
I was browsing ads in numismatic magazines from 2007, and the prices are actually higher to buy then than it is now in the current modern collectible, in general most of the coins that was popular back then like the State Quarters, now is half priced or less. The common gold coins prices haven't change much, only the scarcer or rarer type has gone up in prices, so to sum it up, if I was buying key dates and semi-key dates, I maybe somewhat ahead. If I was investing in junk silver or common gold coin and sell it off at the right time in 2012-2013, I'd make more than double, and if I hold it till today, the profit would be a lot less IMO. And that's a span of past 10 years. There was another post about the coin hobby popularity in CCF, some said that the hobby will continue to flourish, but I have serious doubt. Edited by macmercury
05/12/2017 10:07 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12057 Posts |
My investment consultant has a saying: it is the people who buy high and sell low who create opportunities for those willing to buy low and then hold until value rebounds. It always rebounds if you hold long enough. I don't know if numismatic investments will rebound, or how long, but I'm willing to ride the rollercoaster to the end of the tracks.
The people who got out of the stock market in 2008, if they had stayed in until 2017, would have been way ahead of their 2008 net worth. Instead they panicked, dumped their holdings for pennies on the dollar, and didn't reinvest that money elsewhere, and now most of those same people realize they are going to be dependent on blind luck to make their retirements in an age of bankrupted pensions and a Social Security system with the Sword of Damocles hovering just above its coffers, ready to kill.
For supposedly dying hobbies, I don't see any shortage of interest in 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle cards or Inverted Jennies/Penny Blacks, and that 1969 Z/28 Camaro I lusted after as a kid is still 6 figures of unaffordability instead of a $3000 used car.
I don't really care if my coins make good investments, I didn't buy them as such, I bought them to enjoy and appreciate, and if they make money, 30 years on, great, if not, I don't care. Sure, it would be nice, but I'm also a realist.
If anything ends up hurting coin collecting as a hobby it will mostly be the transition to a cashless market economy which the US is already undergoing and which will likely be complete within 30-50 years at the absolute limit, where assets exist only in the "cloud" as a series of 1's and 0's and kids born at that time will have never seen a dollar bill nor a cent or a quarter because all transactions will be electronic.
Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890 "Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5822 Posts |
The future generation will save and collect virtual currency in various color and grades?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1186 Posts |
One point to consider is the population of the world and the international market. The world population is over double what it was back in the 60s. The internet has also opened up sales to everyone in the world. I think most of the key date stuff will retain its value with one big caveat. Fake coins and fake slabs may ruin the hobby. That is a bigger concern to me than declining interest (but fake coins could cause folks to lose interest if that makes any sense).
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4211 Posts |
I have noticed dealer inventory at coins shows in the last couple of
years shifting more to "bullion" type coins and less "classic" coins.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12057 Posts |
Today's Greysheet has an excellent lead about record-breaking auction results from Heritage CSNS, and dealers reporting very strong sales and growth, with strong demand; it specifically notes that bullion is currently NOT moving well due to uncertainty by investors about the Fed and interest rates.
Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890 "Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5854 Posts |
I think the point about population growth is you have to also consider what proportion are collectors. A doubling of the population will not help the hobby if the percentage of collectors goes from 1% to 0.25%. I don't know if the current decline is temporary or not. I think the current trends like the cashless society; preferences for experiences over stuff; and possibly demographics are not favorable. That could all change much like how the State Quarters program helped end a 8-9 year decline. Could there be a moment in the future like the State Quarters that will drive demand? Maybe, but I don't know of any way to forecast it. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
No the Pogue sales are not evidence of a decline in anything. .01 percent of collectors can play at those levels and if one is not present the other gets it cheap, one person can make or break prices at that level.
They were most likely a victim of bad timing and oversaturation, so many top collections have hit the market that at some point even the rich get a little tired. Some coins had not been held that long either, others didn't really fit sets so no one really needed it ect.
At least one coin sold privately for more than the auction sale since the sales and probably a few more. Sales at that level are far more complicated and have far more factors than just a declining market or not
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10034 Posts |
Another thing I think must be remembered is the horrendous economy (in reality, not the media) in the past years. I know the other main hobby I am a part of has seen the same dips. But generally I think it is because of less disposable income being had along with less GOOD jobs/etc. If the economy gets better we should see an increase in sales/buyers.
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Valued Member
United States
294 Posts |
I doubt that the Pogues have lost any money in the sale of their coins!
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Valued Member
United States
57 Posts |
And at the same time I had the pleasure of watching a 1856 Proof FE cent PCGS PR40 sell for $13,000 at a little auction in the middle of nowhere Kansas. I really didn't know what it would bring, but felt that was fairly high.
That got me thinking about how hard it would be to value something that only comes up for sale once a year or so. If two people decide they want it and can't wait.... It creates 'value', try and sell another coin exactly like it the next day, it probably would go for far less, the demand has decreased by a considerable margin, because the demand for $10,000+ (let alone multi-million dollar) coins is a rather small niche market.
Moral to the story Its only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. PM Coins will always be worth something, but my set of Buffs? Who knows?
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Replies: 16 / Views: 3,687 |
Posted 05/12/2017 7:30 pm
