Market Question

............... -PP

I do recall there was a market upset when some scarcer Morgan dollar values were undercut by the US Treasury dumping a huge cache of $1 on the market.

"Are the coins that have increased in value at risk of flat-lining or declining in value?"

I do think some are at risk, because of a few overriding factors in the past couple of decades--such as a sequence of collector fads buoyed by the underlying assumption that anything deemed "collectible" is a wise investment. Those expectations of future performance have pushed pricing further--and many coin-related businesses have marketed directly to this segment of collectors/investors. Just look at all those ads which basically scream "throw your retirement dollars here--you can't lose!". There is some real basis for current values, but there's also a lot of hype--and it's hard to separate the two.

Personally, I want to avoid this whole mindset and focus on coins that appeal directly to me as a collector. I try to find scarcer mintages and die varieties where appreciation will be a nice supplement to enjoying the nuances of collecting. I think those are some real underpinnings for lasting values once all this hype wanes.

I think it's pretty hard to assign "risk", since it's a matter of opinion on future trends.
That said, I consider coins whose trends have peaked quickest in the past 10 years to be more at risk than series with a flatter curve.
Many popular US coins fit the "risky" category to some degree--but only to me. Anyone who plans to spend big $ should research past trends and come to their own conclusions.

The best way to avoid the risk is to buy coins for personal value and not investment value.

Rarity is only one key. Condition is another. A 1950D nickel in fine condition is many times rarer than the same coin in BU. That is because most of the mintage was saved by dealers before they entered circulation. Logically you will never be able to sell a circulated one at a price larger than that of the BU specimen. I collect broken bank notes (currency issued by local banks prior to the civil war). I live in Vermont and so I have stuck to notes from my state. There is one note in particular which is considered to be common because unsigned remainder sheets of these notes were found. In fact I have never seen a signed or circulated note from The West River Bank of Jamaica VT. Three years ago they sold on ebay for maybe $30.00 each. The design is quite attractive though with nude chubby cherubs with uncirculated silver dollars. Now they routinely actually sell at $130.o0 or more on ebay.

That brings up the third quality of desirability and that can be quite a wild card. Because of the beautiful silver dollars and the naked babies people who could not care less a bout Vermont Broken Bank Notes want to have one which creates demand. Not rare by any standard but desirable and expensive. Currently they are being counterfeited for collectors making them even more common.

In my collection I have several unique pieces. They are lead die trials for medallions from a private mint. They were made for the customer to approve the final design before the die was hardened which would make it unchangeable. Not too many people are interested in them other than perhaps people who have a special interest in the local community they were made for. There is one exception though. I have a die trial for the Canadian Numismatic Association (CNA) convention medal. That organization has quite a few members so a few of them would probably be interested in adding this to their collection. This gives it a desirability higher than the die trial for a medal made for some coin club in Pennsylvania. If I had a lead die trial for the American Numismatic Association ( ANA) it would be worth a lot more because there are many more members of the ANA than members of the CNA.

Bottom line, collect for the value to you rather than purely investment value. I have enjoyed my lead medals enough to cover what I paid for them. I was so impressed with the fact that they were unique and rare. If you do that probably you will make out as an investment quite all right if you remember: rarity, condition and desirability.

mycrob's reference to modern high end slabbed coins is true. In my opinion (I could be wrong but...)they possess lots of desirability and quality because of the enticing ads promoting them, but they lack the rarity since many of them are still being manufactured to order.

ME TOO.