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Cost Versues Mintage

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Ballyhoo's Avatar
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1613 Posts
 Posted 10/27/2018  10:38 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Ballyhoo to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I am most likely to get an answer which I've heard a thousand times. Yet I do not buy the explanation. Take, for instance, an 1891o Seated Liberty dime I bought from a reputable Maryland dealer listing on ebay. Uncertified details and a bit of original mint luster it should grade about uncirculated, I got for $41.50. Now, the 1853 Arrows I need, in a similar grade/appearance, would set me back around a hundred from ebay listings. So, the '91o had a mintage of 4,540,000 and the 53 Arrows had a mintage of 12,078,000. In other words, why are coins with one third the mintage of others half the cost? Makes absolutely no sense. Neither are rare by any means, even in grading numbers.
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IndianGoldEagle's Avatar
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36531 Posts
 Posted 10/27/2018  10:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add IndianGoldEagle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In a word popularity. Many coins with higher mintages sell for more money because there are more collectors looking to add that particular coin to their collection. The "arrows" coin you need is a popular coin for type sets. Key date Lincolns have far higher mintages than many 19th century coins and sell for far more because of the fact there are a larger number of Lincoln collectors than date sets of 19th century coins.
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John1's Avatar
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 Posted 10/27/2018  11:25 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add John1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are three types of rarity.
Mintage rarity: the less minted the higher the value.
Grade rarity: Very few available in high grades.
Absolute rarity: Only a few are around regardless of grade or original mintage. And don't forget about overall demand for any one coin.
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T-BOP's Avatar
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 Posted 10/27/2018  11:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add T-BOP to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Supply and demand .
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KenKat's Avatar
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 Posted 10/27/2018  12:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KenKat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Also the extent to which people stashed away a particular year or mint mark can be a factor. Did people hang on to 1891 Seated dimes because it was the last year for that series? Or did no one care because it was just the same old same old dime? Was the 1853 saved because of the arrows? These are also factors in the availability of coins and hence their cost.
Edited by KenKat
10/27/2018 12:40 pm
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Zurie's Avatar
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 Posted 10/27/2018  12:59 pm  Show Profile   Check Zurie's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Zurie to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There aren't too many Liberty Seated date collectors, so the individual year mintage is less important. A lot of the demand is for type sets, and there are far fewer years of arrows at date than there are legend on obverse.
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kanga's Avatar
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 Posted 10/27/2018  1:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add kanga to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's not how many were minted but how many exist for collectors now.
Extreme example is the 1933 Double Eagle.
445,500 were minted ( Red Book) but only one is available to collectors hence the $7+ million price.
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thq's Avatar
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 Posted 10/27/2018  2:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My favorite example is 1909-S. A 1909-S Eagle can be bought for melt plus 10% and has a mintage of 292,000 and PCGS survival of 2250. A 1909-SVDB cent in VF can be bought for the same money and has a mintage of 484,000 and PCGS survival of 50,000.

I like Honest Abe, but the Eagle is one of the most attractive of all US coin designs.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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United States
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 Posted 10/28/2018  10:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Supply and demand .

Absolutely. Nothing else is as important in purchasing almost anything.
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Ballyhoo's Avatar
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 Posted 10/28/2018  11:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ballyhoo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I am in agreement with all of you on the many points mentioned. However, sticking to these two years, factoring in those lost or melted when silver prices rose each should still have at least half of the initial mintage. So that's where I'm coming from when I say I just don't get it. But I will have one eventually at a price I feel comfortable with. In truth, even the famous and out of reach 1933 is only worth what the owner thought. Thanks for the replies!
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chesterb's Avatar
United States
1261 Posts
 Posted 10/28/2018  11:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add chesterb to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Looking at PCGS CoinFacts, you're correct that the '91-O has less certified MS examples. The '53 with Arrows is a two year type coin and type collectors like myself need one to complete our collection. Whereas, the '91-O is one of about 30 years or so for which we can choose a suitable example.

The other thing is looking at CoinFacts auction results, the prices for the two years are comparable. So if you got a MS example for $41.50 then you got a great deal. You mentioned it's a details coin. That probably has something to do with it. Can you show us some pics?
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456 Posts
 Posted 10/28/2018  6:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
For better estimate of availability than mintage, check out rarity estimates at PCGS coin facts web site. Hundreds of millions (maybe billions) of silver coins were melted over the years, effecting some issues more than others.
Supply means nothing without demand. I have an ms-63 1854 Half Cent that came from a mintage of only 54,000. PCGS estimates only 500 remain in mint state. Pretty rare, huh? Cost me $390.
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BStrauss3's Avatar
United States
4587 Posts
 Posted 10/28/2018  10:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BStrauss3 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Also melting... Google the crime of '73 as to why lots of SL from the 50s and 60s are much rarer than the mintage numbers indicate.
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jimbucks's Avatar
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4691 Posts
 Posted 10/28/2018  10:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jimbucks to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Here's a head scratcher. Look at the mintage and price of a 1850 Seated Liberty dollar (Philly mint). Then try to find one.
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