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 Replies: 45 / Views: 3,356 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1083 Posts |
Well SpringCypress You are tenacious in holding on to your views. I don't think any of us are going to convince you. Anyway If I had a 1895-O Barber in F-12 condition would you trade even for a 1916-D Mercury in F-12 condition? I bet you wouldn't. I withdraw from the field of debate and by the way, 40 hours straight is working WAY too much. Peace.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12437 Posts |
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In my head Collector demand should cause keys to follow along with their series. For those little kids who are picking up $2.5 coins a $500 coin is out of the question... a few years later when that $2.5 coin is a $5 coin the key SHOULD be in the $1k range... That is a false assumption as virtually every key date will increase in value at a faster rate than a common date. There are many keys that have an annual ROR% of 10+%, common dates(in a common grade, not top pops) will almost never do that unless it is caused by a rise in precious metals prices or new found extreme popularity of a series. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
812 Posts |
I believe it is simply supply-and-demand. The important thing to remember is that demand need have no basis in reason or logic. Many coins with mintages and survivor rates far less than the 1916-D dime sell for far less. It may be due to the series not being as popular as Mercury dimes, people wanting to compete sets, investors pursuing the 16-D, or the high price attracting people with money to burn. In my opinion, if there were to be a popular movie that mentioned or featured a 1912-S nickel in its plot, the price would take off. There's no logical reason for that to occur, but I'd bet a 1916-D dime that it would happen. Trying to apply reason or logic is an exercise in futility. It is what it is. That's why I mostly stick with key dates of "unpopular" series; I'm waiting for that movie to be made. (Or that may just be my rationale, since coins costing 4-digits are not in my price range anyway.) |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1000 Posts |
I love the Mercury dime, I have a set without the key and semi keys. One thing that I would like to add to this discussion is that I question the legitimacy of many you see for sale, especially on ebay. I think they seem less scarce do to counterfeits and fakes. That is also the reason you see so many worn to a Almost good grade. Not because the 16d was overlooked for decades of circulation. Wearing the coin down helps the con artists hide the fact that the coin is altered and not real. So basically, I think the coin is scarcer than they appear and do to that fact I would be very cautious in purchasing one that has not been authenticated by the highest reputable TPG possible. |
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Valued Member
United States
486 Posts |
For all you fighting for the great value of the V-Nickel and the 1895-O dime just remember Supply and just as important if not more, Demand! After all the consumer(Demand) has the final say -PP
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1130 Posts |
Demand, supply, whatever. All 3 coins are on my list to acquire for my key date collection.  |
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Rest in Peace
United States
4849 Posts |
Well, I've been following along. Some very interesting discussion. Anyways, I am surprised that the 1912-s Liberty nickel hasn't been compared yet to the key in the series, 1885. I do find it quite surprising that the mintage for 1885 is 6 or so times as much, yet is significantly more expensive than the 12-s. I also follow the discussion regarding the mintmarks and value associated in series with few mintmark allocations. This is true for the IHC series and Liberty nickel series, but isn't always the case. Look at the $3 gold series. There are relatively few mintmarks in that series, but all the "s" and "o" mintmarks command hefty premiums over their Philedalphia counterparts, even though the majority of the philadelphias have much lower mintages. This is also true to some extent with the classic head eagle series. It is almost like it is backwards compared to the distribution/value in the IHC and Liberty nickel series. Lots of interesting economical factors here. |
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Moderator
 United States
188560 Posts |
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I do find it quite surprising that the mintage for 1885 is 6 or so times as much, yet is significantly more expensive than the 12-s. I can relate this to a similar situation with Lincoln Cents. The 1914-D LHC is more valuable than the 1931-S, despite having a higher mintage. The earlier date coins were not saved, leaving a smaller population, especially in better grades. After these earlier dates appreciated in value, people learned to preserve the later dates. |
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Rest in Peace
United States
4849 Posts |
I agree with you jbuck, except that the mintage levels between those two LHCs are quite a bit closer(like a factor of 1.4). So regarding the nickels would you say that survivability and preservation play more of a factor? or would the fact that the 12-s has a mintmark seriously reduce the demand? I'm curious, because I've been wondering lately why the 1885 nickel is so valuable. My assumption would be that it has a very low survival rate of its original mintage when compared to the 12-s...but maybe the mintmark thing has more effect than I thought.
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Valued Member
United States
230 Posts |
well the reason is, designs. 1916-d merc is alot better looking then a 1880 sheild. 1880 has 16k and yeah it might be priced a 700 for ag in pcgs I have seen a couple and I mean just 2 for about 300 ish in vg
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Pillar of the Community
United States
581 Posts |
1. I agree that common dates will not rise as fast as keys. I don't agree that keys average 10%, but it certainly makes sense that their value goes up faster than commons.
2. The reason there are so many AG coins is so the con men can hide their work? That is a new one for me and I'm kind of shaking my head on that one. Not sure.
3. Another reason Keys go up more in value over time is that when the market goes south and nothing is selling, Keys will hold their value better. So when the market picks up again, the Keys start off pretty much where they left off while the more common coins have ground to gain (I am ignoring the impact of silver prices here...)
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12437 Posts |
Kabiye_Lady, I knew someone was going to say that so I do have supporting evidence for my 10% claim. Obviously, not all keys will have that ROR but I would say a large number are around 10% +/-1. An occasional poster here designed a coin value trends website, charting the long term price increases and RORs from 1950 to present. 1909S VDB and 22 no D Lincolns, 1916D and 1942/1D Mercurys, 1901S and 1913S Barber quarters, 1916 SL quarter, 1932D and 1932S Washington quarters, 1921D Walking Liberty half, 1889CC and 1893S Morgans, and 1928 Peace are just some of the key coins that have returned 9-11% annually since 1950. http://www.us-coin-values-advisor.com/index.htmlBTW, the RORs for the 1912-S Liberty nickel, 1895-O Barber dime, and 1916-D Mercury dime are as follows(in order): 8.21%, 6.27%, and 10.31% |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
838 Posts |
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Look at the $3 gold series. Very good point - but I am leery of the melting pot when it comes to gold. It can badly throw off survival numbers. Quote:
The 1914-D LHC is more valuable than the 1931-S, despite having a higher mintage. For another (albeit minor) example, consider 1871 and 1872 Indian Head cents. The latter has a slightly higher mintage and is a fair bit pricier. Consecutive years AND no mint marks... this is very odd to me, and can only be explained with some melting going on (which I am aware did happen with IHC at that time.) Sorry for my part in steering this discussion so far off-topic. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1000 Posts |
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2. The reason there are so many AG coins is so the con men can hide their work? That is a new one for me and I'm kind of shaking my head on that one. Not sure. Kabiye_Lady, Here is a guide that was written by a member on ebay regarding the 16d dime. I found it to be very well written. How to spot a fake 1916d and avoid them. |
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Moderator
United States
188560 Posts |
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So regarding the nickels would you say that survivability and preservation play more of a factor? or would the fact that the 12-s has a mintmark seriously reduce the demand I believe that survivability and preservation are more of a factor than the mint mark. But coming from me, that is more opinion than fact. Someone with more knowledge of the series can probably substantiate or refute my claim. |
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Replies: 45 / Views: 3,356 |
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Posted 08/06/2008 11:52 am
