Rarity Versues Pricing

Pricing often reflects popularity (demand) more than rarity. Many people collect Lincolns, few collect Seated dimes.

You can have a really cool looking coin, an old coin, a rare coin, or a high-grade coin ..... those are all components of the price. But in the end, some one has to care about it. There needs to be a demand for it.

THE controlling factor is demand.

A better example might be the proof-only coinage from the depressions of 1877-78 and of 1893-95.

An 1877 3CN proof-only had a mintage of 510, and sells in the $1400-$1800 range for a normal unimpaired proof. The 1878 3CN proof-only had a mintage of 2,350 and barely snags $600. With virtually identical mintages, the 1877 Shield nickel proof-only sells for about $2000-$2200, and the 1878 Shield proof-only sells for about $900.

These differences (and similarities) turn completely on demand. About 500 coins much more easily satisfies the lower demands of the smaller pool of 3CN collectors than the slightly higher demands of Shield collectors. Neither reflects the vastly higher demands of the gaggle of Lincoln collectors. One could only imagine what any 500-ish mintage Lincoln would bring. The closest comparison might be the 1895 proof-only Morgan, with a mintage of about 880, which brings north of $40,000 for the worst examples. The 1895 Morgan only brings that little because the vast majority of Morgan collectors realize it is a hopeless coin to obtain, and bypass it in their collections.

The big question is whether YOU want it.

I like any 1854-59 San Francisco Mint coin. Except for the double eagles, they are all scarce to rare. I'm not picky about condition. Just finding affordable ones is challenge enough.

They used to be inexpensive, but not any more. The number of collectors only has to increase by 100 to exhaust the supply. The same thing happened with non-Morgan Carson City coins 10 years ago.

In the case of the S VDB and 16-D dime it's simply old marketing that created legends. We are still at a time where most collectors grew up before the internet market existed at all much less to the level it does today. Many were even collecting before the TPGS were around. In the old days keys such as this were hyped as rare and special and they became a dream coin. That mentality has carried along over the years as back then there was no way to know what was out there, just what your dealer or show had. Now with the internet we see neither of those coins are special in terms of rarity or availability, but that's not going to chance a lifetime of belief for most collectors. 40 years from now though the shine will probably have worn off on these and they will be viewed differently as that generation of collectors will have grown up knowing just how easy they are to find.

The other thing to consider is how a series is collected. While set building is on the decline, there are still a lot of people doing Lincoln and Mercury sets as they are affordable sets that pretty much anyone can finish as long as you don't go for top grades. ANYTHING seated has a complete stopper in the series unless you can afford 5 figure coins (or in the case of the dollars 6 figure coins) and that doesn't even get into the per coin expense of the series as a whole. Needless to say most people doing seated series are doing so knowing they'll never complete it so if they're missing some of the more expensive coins along with the stopper it isn't as big of a deal as missing the 16-D as your last coin. That keeps pressure off the prices and the stoppers in general will keep some collectors away from a series which again will help keep prices down.

I am in agreement with you westcoin on the current pricing. Which was my initial reasoning for leaving without it on Friday. As you also mentioned the overall look fits perfectly with the series I'm trying to assemble. Since all of my others, with exception to a few varieties, are in Air-Tites I find myself contemplating to crack it out or not. Probably not since it is a key date of the series.

Thanks all for the comments and education. Appreciated.