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 Replies: 1,581 / Views: 149,048 |
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Valued Member
United States
165 Posts |
Yes, I agree the Future price may be greater or less than it is today. I was looking at some of the ebay listings and Very Few have any bidders. Lots of listings but I'm not convinced that real money is being exchanged between unrelated parties. The "high sale prices" I fear may be manipulated sales. ebay does allow two parties to reverse a transaction if they both agree. I believe that it is not too hard to setup multiple ebay accounts and buy and sell to yourself giving the appearance that a real transaction has occurred and drawing in real buyers on additional quantities based on the first made up "sale". A wise person once said if it seems too good to be true then maybe it isn't real. If you look at the census numbers of previous Silver Eagles, there are Many where the Total Census is 30,000 or less graded coins,that currently have a fair market value of just a couple of hundred dollars. The 2019 S ERP will NOT be a particularly "rare" coin because of all the hype. I guess that there will probably be 10-15K coins graded 70 between PCGS and NGC. NGC's Census for the recent RCM Pride of Two Nations coins indicates that they graded more than 3,200 coins of a total issue of 10,000 coins Proof 70 (32%), and that does Not include what PCGS graded as 70. Therefore my crystal ball says that $250-$400 will be a fair price for graded 70 coin. The ungraded coins in OMP might sell at a little over $100. I believe that there is a lot of smoke and mirrors being used to create interest in Listings, and sure a few people have been sucked in and actually paid some of these hyped prices, but the real prices are actually much lower. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:I was looking at some of the ebay listings and Very Few have any bidders. Lots of listings but I'm not convinced that real money is being exchanged between unrelated parties. The "high sale prices" I fear may be manipulated sales. There's countless real sales occurring. There's even be a real sale for a signed 1-100 ungraded box opened for $4500 that happened off ebay. Quote:
f you look at the census numbers of previous Silver Eagles, there are Many where the Total Census is 30,000 or less graded coins,that currently have a fair market value of just a couple of hundred dollars. Because they have mintages in the 100s of thousands. Quote:
The 2019 S ERP will NOT be a particularly "rare" coin because of all the hype. No ultra modern is actually rare in the truest sense of the word, but it is rare compared to it's peers. Even if you just compare it to other special issues like the RPs, its less than half of the 2nd lowest mintage. Quote:
Therefore my crystal ball says that $250-$400 will be a fair price for graded 70 coin. The ungraded coins in OMP might sell at a little over $100. While we cannot predict the future for sure I am 100% confident that this coin raw will never sniff $100 and that 70s will never sniff $250. It's very unlikely raw will ever get back down below $300 if it even gets there. Even the 2006 RP Silver Eagle costs $100 or more with a mintage of over 200k. That said the one scenario where prices could get that low would be if the 30k mintage becomes the new norm and they over do it with special issues and people just get completely bored of them. Barring them destroying the series like that though there's basically no chance this one will ever get down to the 2006 RP price. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1913 Posts |
@Greasy Fingers: Heck no, I'm not going to sell it. I was fortunate enough to get mine on the 2nd day at 7:30 thanks to others here who provided the hint and want to keep my collection complete.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5650 Posts |
While monitoring and tracking the results seen lately for THIS coin, in OGP. The prices are around $1,200.00 for the 19 XE, unsigned COA. This coin is Unique in more than a few ways.  I think the frenzy has not seen its peak and taking many factors into consideration, the coin should/will hold its value, based on the reasons for being unique alone, JMO.. Come this time in a year, I would not be surprised to see the fair market value at $800.00 + OGP'G version. Slabs, too crazy to predict, If the past with a coin like this were a clue, they should do well. Of course until the next " unique " coin, with it's low mintage, strike or finish and mint mark, maybe half or solid gold version of the American Silver Eagles Collection Saga......I really do not think the look of the colored ASE'S I have seen,  token looking......JMO. Love the new, innovative, passionate to re-take collectors back, Mint Director........ |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Quote:I was looking at some of the ebay listings and Very Few have any bidders. Lots of listings but I'm not convinced that real money is being exchanged between unrelated parties. The "high sale prices" I fear may be manipulated sales. Take ebay out of the equation... MCM and Pinehurst Coin have been steadily raising prices for their 69 graded coins since they have been available ($1199 and $1164 yesterday) and they have sold PLENTY. Pinehurst 70 graded coins have also been selling at a decent clip at $4364 (FDI) and $2228 (ER/FS) |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5650 Posts |
Fox, Thanks for that share. He too makes the same call, you did about the NGC'S, having less milk spots. Good Call.........
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1667 Posts |
I dunno, ebay shows like 7 listings selling per hour or so with drop off in the wee hours over night, and almost 4200 sales of them since they started the pre-sales. This looks hot to me and coming on 2 weeks from release, no signs of slowing down that I can detect. I see this running hot through Christmas. Not sure what happens after that, but I can see this hanging in there like a champ until then. Nobody is a psychic of course, but None of this is surprising me except that it keeps rising a little here, a little there, and undercutting to make a sale doesn't seem to be happening, which usually does happen. I think we all expect the undercutting to happen and the prices to come down at some point, but how far they come down is the question, but Again, I think $300 is the lowest it could go, heck people that do list them now for $400-$700 are being bought immediately and I'm guessing someone else is then relisting to make a flip. This right there tells me this might not go that low when it starts settling down. Bidders seem to like the $800-$900 range if it's available though. Difficult to analyze but I think quite a bit of the craziness has to do with Christmas at the moment. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1026 Posts |
Another good reflection of the current market situation is if you consider how many coins are for sale. I search for "2019 enhanced reverse proof silver eagle" on ebay which will also pull up some 'Pride of Two Nations' coins & sets unfortunately. Regardless, there were 1000+ on offer a few days ago, now it's a little less than 900. This number will go up again once the graded coins hit the market. Let's see if prices dip then. In the long run I think it's bound to go up. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
He too makes the same call, you did about the NGC'S, having less milk spots. He said he noticed a low amount in NGC slabs (which is provably what he collects) but never made any comparison to others. The incident rate for all holders and forms of storage is low overall, it seems higher than it is because obviously the spotted ones get sold more as people don't really want to hold onto those. If holders had anything to do with it you would see proofs of all types having serious issues with it, but we don't. It's the production that is the issue with them. There are old holders from other companies that were famous for toning coins but there is no holder from anyone that has ever been linked to milk spots nor has there ever been wise spread series issues to suggest it has any impact. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1532 Posts |
When checking the POP reports last night, PCGS is showing roughly 40% of the graded coins as a 69. NGC hasn't updated theirs yet.
To me 40% in 69's seems high ( I know its early days yet on grading ) but if that percentage of 69's increases would it not push the selling price of a 70 up?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5650 Posts |
I know what he said, He discussed the Low Incidence of milk spots in NGC holders and also stated that eagles tend to pick up milk spots, IF it's stored in the wrong holder!!! Is that not in and of itself a remark about "other holders".... Facts count. Ever a prosecutor.?  PS, The bay has a consistent uptick in OGP'D 19XE's  |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
To me 40% in 69's seems high ( I know its early days yet on grading ) but if that percentage of 69's increases would it not push the selling price of a 70 up? It would. We saw this happen with the 2012 ones when they graded out at a lower 70 percentage than expected Quote:
Facts count. Facts do count, which is why I keep commenting on the fallacy that somehow NGC holders prevent milk spots or that other holders cause them. They are a PRODUCTION issue. I'll make this as simple as possible, spotting/toning caused by a holder/folder/album can be dipped off, milk spots CANNOT be. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5650 Posts |
If I was a slab collector I would have more knowledge on the topic. Being YOU know the TPG'S policy's and Pop's, and other stats. Why would people in this thread mention that they found this problem to be less with NGC then others.  ....Which would suggest NOT a production problem, Rather a storage problem. One must be open - minded, Sir. I collect ALL OGP and there is NO issue.....I believe We again, will agree to disagree.... Allow me to put this in simple terms, A production problem would suggest ALL ASE'S from the mint are milk spotted, and they are not.PS, The 19XE'S are still inching upwards, OGP that is..... |
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Valued Member
United States
456 Posts |
Quote:
As PCGS points out, milk spots indeed trace their origin back to manufacturing issues at the U.S. Mint. As much was affirmed by U.S. Mint Quality Division Chief Stacy Kelley-Scherer, who, in 2012, remarked that the white spots on American Silver Eagles are attributed to minting procedures. Unfortunately, Kelly-Scherer went on the record as saying that the U.S. Mint has not been able to find a panacea for preventing milk spots. https://coinweek.com/education/coin...lver-eagles/They will eventually show their stripes if bent that way. It doesn't matter what holder they happen to be in. Higher humidity levels seem to pull the visible color up faster, but it was always there. Edited by AES
11/26/2019 2:20 pm
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Posted 11/25/2019 11:38 pm
