Is The Joy Of Numismatics Over?

Well done!

Fantastic!

Numismatics is a 1000 year old hobby, it's not going anywhere, although it might change.

If numismatics has a main challenge, that challenge lies in the fact that coins are rapidly declining in importance as a medium of exchange in our day-to-day lives.

But let's look at some other things:

1. A flood of mass-produced "coins" from tiny nations that are being marketed as collectible investments when they are neither; combined with a flood of commemoratives from RCM, RM, and so on that have massively oversaturated the market

2A. Scam artists, hucksters, and con men on shop-at-home TV programs selling worthless junk claiming it's an investment, overhyping or outright misrepresenting items, offering legitimate coins but with outrageous markups, etc. The same people also advertise in mass market media (magazines) with similar "offers." The shameful part of this is that these companies and individuals almost exclusively target the elderly and the uninformed consumer. I've heard plenty of stories of these victims buying thousands of dollars of this worthless junk, then passing away, and then whomever inherits it finds out the hard way that "grandma's coin collection" isn't worth the boxes it was stored in.

2B. The same scammers have spent a lot of time overhyping "error coins" and convincing the public at large that there may be valuable errors worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in their pocket change. While not necessarily untrue, per se, the bigger problem is that the scammers are failing to disclose that the odds of finding such a coin in your change are infinitesimally small, in most cases, and now thousands of non-collectors are being constantly disappointed to find out that their bent, damaged, holed, scratched, or chemically altered pocket change coins are not going to support their retirement. Their disillusionment when they learn this is discouraging them from pursuing the hobby further.

The next 3 items go together:

3. The introduction of third-party grading, and the successful marketing campaigns to pitch TPG slabbed coins as "investments", has brought a tremendous influx of investors and speculators into the hobby that have little or no interest in the history of the coins or the hobby itself, but view each coin no differently than one would view a share of stock in a company or a bar of gold. Demand for rare coins by speculators, investors, and even mutual funds and hedge funds has resulted in spiraling inflation of prices over the last 20-30 years. The result is that more and more hobbyist collectors without suitably deep pockets continue to get priced out of the market, as more and more coins become too expensive to obtain.

This is a key point. In any hobby where TPG's have come into play, prices have gone way up on slabbed or graded items, but have seen much smaller gains, remained flat or fallen in value for most non-graded items. You can see further examples of this effect in other hobbies, such as sports card collecting, comic book collecting, and action figure collecting, all of which have seen massive price increases on graded or certified material over a relatively short period of time. The perception is that certification by a TPG reduces the financial risk to collectors and investors, who then spend more money on certified items based on that perception. This has also led to a perception among collectors in general that items that aren't graded or certified must be defective, inferior, or worth less, hurting collectors, dealers and sellers who cannot afford to certify or grade their entire inventory.

4. In conjunction with #3. Speculation in the precious metals market has resulted in strong prices for gold and silver, which by its very nature leads to rising prices for coins struck from those metals. Gold and silver are not rare, scarce, or in short supply, nor is the supply of either metal likely to be exhausted at any point in the foreseeable future.

5. In conjunction with #3 and #4. Rampant inflation in the US economy and the unparalleled growth of consumer indebtedness have not been matched by wage growth until the last 2-3 years. Meanwhile, the steadily declining purchasing power of the dollar means that the collector's budget buys less and less product. This means that more and more collectors who would be active participants in the hobby are quite simply unable to buy coins for their collection due to a lack of disposable income combined with the reduced purchasing power of what income they do have. A knock-on effect from this problem is that many dealers and investors are sitting on large amounts of coins instead of bringing them to market, further tightening an already tight and finite supply of collectible coins; this means more buyers are competing for less product, and that ALSO causes rising prices, exacerbating things even more.

6. The US government has consistently failed to monitor or regulate the importing of numismatic goods products, unlike many other countries worldwide. This means that China, Russia, and other countries can produce and export to the US all of their counterfeit coins carte blanche; and in the absence of practical or effective detection and enforcement of anti-counterfeiting laws, there is nothing to stop them from doing so. This is largely due to the US government's willing refusal to target or pursue action against known major offenders such as the "no-no site", combined with a complete lack of any sort of punitive measures levied against websites, dealers, or individuals who knowingly participate in or facilitate the trade or sale of counterfeit goods. The government also lacks the will or ability to enforce existing laws against domestic sites such as ebay and Amazon, which are rife with counterfeits, so there is a constant supply of these fake coins made available for sale and purchase to uninformed buyers and collectors. The widespread prevalence of counterfeit coins damages collector trust and confidence in the hobby, and creates more skepticism and reluctance when it comes to purchasing coins, and that in and of itself damages the reputation of numismatics as a whole.

7. Stagnant US coin design, or bland and uninspiring design, have neither re-engaged existing collectors with the hobby, nor generated much interest among non-collectors that might lead them to become collectors in the future.

Just some thoughts off the top of my head.

with Paralyse, a lot of thought has gone into this particular post.
Food for thought for all of us.

As far as slabbed coins are concerned,
I feel that I maybe be in a good numismatic position to take full advantage of unslabbed coin buys.

My first numismatic love is for ancient coins although I collect anything that is numisatically interesting, including modern coins. Coins with full identification and acquisition history, with prices paid can be noted on a 2x2 flip, but not on a slab.
Museums use trays with id cards included with each coin. That applies to all of their coins, ancient and modern. Those coins are always subject to investigation by the numismatic student or professional.

I note that although NGC, in their opinion, will not grade what they think maybe a fake coin, they will not guarantee as authentic any ancient coin that they do slab.
Hence my earlier post, and also the reason why I prefer unslabbed coins, so that any further investigation can be carried out.

I always view David Viaggi's youtube videos relating to ancient coins.
I also note that none of the coins in the videos are slabbed either, despite some of them having a value of many $thousands.

Nevertheless, in some circumstances, I am a fan of slabs, (especially for modern and classic coins), despite the fact that they have distorted the numismatic market.

What you are describing is a speculative bubble:
Investors and speculators went all in, but due to the increasingly higher and higher prices, nobody is left to buy. That's called the Peak of the Mania.
After the Peak comes the collapse. Someone starts selling, but there are still no takers, so prices come down a bit more. Another large hoarder of coins notices that prices are becoming weaker and decide to start selling too. Then, selling begets more selling. And eventually, prices collapse.
Ergo, the current situation is no different to what happened in the late 80's and early 90's when we had the "Grading Craze". Price went to the moon, then to the basement. We are now just balancing on the edge of the precipice. Just a little nudge and we go down into the abyss.

Bottom line on enjoyment.

In 1966 I was given coins and stamps of that year. Only the coins survive the humid conditions I live in.

Still enjoying my Aus 1966 round 50c coins. Happy days. kg5

The next wave of professional numismatists are arising!

Have you heard of the Stack's Bowers Professional Numismatist Program? Anyone from ages 18-25 could have applied. All expenses paid to take some classes and network with professionals. Link: https://stacksbowers.com/profession...ist-program/

Being one of the few accepted myself, I decided to get in touch with other accepted applicants. Everyone has their own superpower, whether it be a specialization of a series, the skill of hand engraving, or professional photo and video editing! Although many professional young folks are not active on these online forums (this is oldpeopleville, no offense!), they are certainly out there with the passion and drive to make their hobby and skills a full time career!