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Legit And Verifiable Coin Grading Is On The Horizon! Let In The Beanie Babies!

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Earle42's Avatar
United States
10029 Posts
 Posted 07/28/2023  2:14 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
The march or the Beanie Babies has begun!

The apparent profiteering off of coin grading might be in its twilight years.

Legit-And-Verifiable-Coin-Grading-Is-On-The-Horizon!-Let-In-The-Beanie-Babies!

I have now seen two grading apps (might be more!) on the app store which are said by the positive reviews to give accurate grades to coins every time. I contacted one of the app makers and they said their grading is AI based upon the data of already slabbed coins.

The more exposure the apps get to slabbed coins, the better the algorithm gets at "knowing" what the overall sea of human graders would classify each grade at. It therefore can eliminate the human error (that was a term used by TPGs when in the 90s they promoted their computer grading systems...and then abandoned them for their present human [error filled] systems).

So the more, for example, slabbed MS62 Morgans the apps are exposed to, the more the app can average and figure out what a "perfect" (and non-existant!) human grader would assign as an MS62. The TPGs used to market their computer systems as being able to give one true grade to a coin. No doubt reslabbing therefore died so a large profit maker was gone.

Fooey! Eliminating human error dropped large pofit$. $o $tick the hobby with two more decade$ of the le$$er $y$tem (that, again, they had just got done berating a$ outdated and error filled)!

To be fair, the TPGs did make the claim (excuse) that they were abandoning their new, expensive and more accurate systems b/c people did not trust computers. Well...back in the 90s that was true.

So while the rest of the world computerized and became tech oriented, the coin grading companies kept a system allowing multiple times they would be paid to grade the same coin if the owner so desired (and they did/do).

I find it hard to believe the companies are not studying this and wondering how they can keep their empire and stranglehold (as in they have redefined the focus of the hobby to their own liking/profitability) intact. Since the new apps are based upon the already accomplished work (filtering out the errors!) TPGs cannot claim the systems are faulty at the root!

Beanie Babies to the rescue!


How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
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trdhrdr007's Avatar
United States
2335 Posts
 Posted 07/28/2023  2:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trdhrdr007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What happens if the slabs the apps are exposed to are fake?
Bedrock of the Community
Earle42's Avatar
United States
10029 Posts
 Posted 07/28/2023  2:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The beauty of the system is that it will have to, inevitably, be exposed to more legit slabs than fake. The fakes will be automatically ousted just like, say, an MS60 that has been graded at the end of the day by a tired grader as being MS62, 63 etc.

The very fact the reslabbing game exists proves that despite two people grading each coin (as the PCGS guarantee indicates when read carefully) every time it is (re)sent in, various grades can be, and are, presently assigned to the same coin. Just like when you were taught how to average numbers in math class, the program (obviously using much more data) has this ability since it is said to learn from experience.

However, I also suspect that IF fake slabs actually would become a problem, it would be very simple for a program to verify the slab as well. People can do this verification now by looking up online what we need to. An app can be online and check much faster than we can.

I have also seen AI programmers respond to this concept of an AI being able to tell eye appeal. This is something very attainable by an AI b/c it learns human responses.

To me eye appeal is a moot point anyway though. In the end it is the buyer who determines eye appeal. I have seen a lot of ugly (to me) brown and mottled stained coins in high MS graded slabs that people say are beautiful to them. They like it, they by it. For me, you could not pay me to own it!
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
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Bump111's Avatar
United States
3323 Posts
 Posted 07/28/2023  3:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bump111 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A short ramble:

I think this is a good use of AI. The only thing that needs to be built into the algorithm is to make note of who is sending the coin in and where it is allowed to fall on the spectrum. Joe Schmoe is unlikely to get the benefit of a doubt. It bothers me when I see a coin assigned a high grade that looks worse than a pedestrian coin graded lower - even a caveman would see the difference. A MS-65 1881-S Morgan doesn't always look like a MS-65 1879-O. Grade honestly and let the market set the price, rather than grading to the market. The subjective eye appeal argument does need to be factored in if the big companies will ever accept it. We all know market grading is where these companies make their money. They protect the top grades with their lives. If they start diluting the upper grades with AI graded coins, the folks with seven-figure registry sets won't be happy. I can see the older, human-graded coins becoming even more valuable at that point.
"Nummi rari mira sunt, si sumptus ferre potes." - Christophorus filius Scotiae
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Ty2020b's Avatar
United States
4680 Posts
 Posted 07/28/2023  9:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ty2020b to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Is your frustration/contempt with human grading based on TPG's capitalizing on potential yet speculated gains to their "errors" in grading, or the fact that the grade cannot be 100% fully trusted sight unseen? Or both?

My issues with apps; they are based on taking an image of the coin. One angle is not enough to accurately and affectively judge a coins surface. Even if an app could take multiple images, layer images, or even use a video, it's judging the coin on only what is captured. The different between a grade could be a small missed imperfection.

Grading is subjective; this has been an argument for decades, and it's very true. There are so many factors when it comes to grading. Imperfection, strike, luster, die state, overall eye appeal. There is always the possibility of AI taking all this into account and becoming more consistent than human grades.

Bottom line; I will always use my own judgment when purchasing a coin when it comes to grades. I'll pay less, or won't buy at all, a coin that I consider to have lower eye appeal, and may pay a premium for a coin with good eye appeal.

Even if AI takes off, becomes the new standard, and is "100% guaranteed", I'm still taking it with a grain of salt and will use my own judgment. IMO, there's a level of ignorance for those that put all faith in the slab. That is on them. They can choose to educate themselves and make the decision based on their preference/knowledge and opinion, or trust the grader/AI.

AI or human, it's all an opinion.
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GrapeCollects's Avatar
United States
8938 Posts
 Posted 07/28/2023  9:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GrapeCollects to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'll largely echo what Ty said, ultimately with AI it's never gonna happen for a multitude of reasons, the number of which could be enumerated but is largely unnecessary as it's self evident. Even beyond that however, the social and societal impact of replacing people with robots cannot be understated. Even removing the aspect of firing people purely for the sake of perceived efficiency or accuracy in an art that is inherently subjective, it removes the inspiration aspect to it. Many YNs want to eventually work for a TPG because they LOVE coins. Would you rather take that away for a slightly, though likely largely more inconsistent service?
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Earle42's Avatar
United States
10029 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2023  10:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
When I got back into the hobby actively in 2011 I wanted to understand how the grading companies had progressed. I had a pre-conceived notion from when they had first come out that was prevalent to the dealers/collectors I was associated with that the concept was just a profiteering business scheme. I wanted to know if this was a fair assessment or not seeing 10+ years had passed since I was serious about coins .

After a lot of research (a passion of mine for whatever I am doing) I found the deeper I looked into videos, their actual claims (like the touted PCGS guarantee), and after seeing legitimate grievances about the companies that I needed to dig even deeper.

After seeing there are people people being taken b/c they put total faith in these companies, I dug deep into one of my specialties, the Kennedy half. The way they have used a non-error for what looks like profiteering is sad. And their labels on obvious pieces having the FG still showing has cost collectors who just assume the companies are 100% legit as assumed, have been taken for thousands of dollars. The company created the market for a non-error slab (their former president Ron Guth "discovered" the 1972 D No FG half and PCGS marketed the idea) that can occur on any date of the Kennedy half, they limit the number of highest graded slabs to drive the price up, while breaking their own rules (30% of the time... see the data from their website in the essay in my signature), and since most people do not know things like this are happening the companies continue to profit from the unsuspecting.

I then even found it ridiculous they have no idea the one legitimate No FG half (1982) also has a major characteristic on the OBV that easily distinguishes it from the normal ones with an FG. Either they do not know or do not tell about it b/c that way they can slab more illegitimate halves as being No FG for this date. See the essay.

This forum is about educating and helping collectors and newbies.

If we say we are concerned about educating collectors, then the facts that a lot of people lose a lot of money to these companies and their products also needs be presented b/c way too many people just assume, since they see so many slabs nowadays, that the companies are the unquestionable experts. These companies do nothing to educate people about what NOT to send in b/c it is wasting the consumers money (such as examples of damaged coins, and coins that are NOT errors) b/c profits would drop. And even reading their alleged and touted PCGS guarantee with a concerning eye shows it only benefits the company (as we have seen by posts here to this forum).

I understand the love affair (not a derogatory term!) people can have with the idea of what the companies are ASSUMED to be. And I also understand when people find out there are many flies in the (expensive) ointment they have invested in that hackels automatically get raised. But facts are facts and do not change based upon desire.

It is time coin grading was taken BACK to the level it was in the 90s using tech. But now our systems are so much better we can do a much better job.
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
Bedrock of the Community
Earle42's Avatar
United States
10029 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2023  11:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Some clarity after going back over the posts here.

People do not need to send in their coins with these apps. They use their phone.


Quote:
Is your frustration/contempt with human grading based on TPG's capitalizing on potential yet speculated gains to their "errors" in grading,


As stated above, the purpose of this forum is to help fellow collectors. The companies are exploiting the hobby rather than living up to the standards people assume the companies have. The essay in my signature shows how they abandoned the betterment of the hobby in the 90s for profits.


Quote:
or the fact that the grade cannot be 100% fully trusted sight unseen? Or both?

The fact that the grades are assumed as being accurate, and even unquestionable, is the problem b/c so little online is out there to educate people (what this forum says is the key to collector success, that these companies are not what they appear to be. In fact, they have withheld a better (their own words) and verifiable system for grading in the name of profits while taking advantage of the hobby for decades now. See the essay in my signature.


Quote:
the social and societal impact of replacing people with robots cannot be understated.

I am assuming this is metaphorical. Just for clarity in case not, this app can be in everyone's pocket and is said to be accurate (I have not personally yet tried it so that is anecdotal form the developers and few people I have asked about it).

Society also meant a lot of cartographers and printers were put out of jobs with the GPS systems on our phones. Almost everyone associated with putting in land line phones also was put out of a job. The people working for grading companies is relatively few compared to (just) those two mentioned areas that cell phones have impacted, yet we seem to accept their losses without thought. The age old concept of modernization and progress always has been associated with this problem of people's jobs being lost. But there is no stopping it.

Personally, from personal research, what I know about these companies and how they take advantage of the hobby means I am ready to see a better system come into existence for the overall betterment of the hobby.

How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
Pillar of the Community
Ty2020b's Avatar
United States
4680 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2023  7:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ty2020b to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Let me start this by stating I am not advocating for the companies, slab everything, only buy graded coins, etc. I have also had my fair share of issues with TPG's, one of which more recently and IMO, quite egregious. That said.....


Quote:
After seeing there are people people being taken b/c they put total faith in these companies, I dug deep into one of my specialties, the Kennedy half.



This is the point I was trying to covey in my first reply to this thread. It is not the grading companies responsibility to teach the public about grading. Those that do put total faith in these companies are ignorant to an extent. I don't mean that negatively, but if one does not put in the time (years and years) of research and experience to come to their own conclusion on a grade, then that is on them. As the app has taken averages of graded examples and drawn its conclusion as to what is considered "accurate", so have I. I'm by no mean a perfect grader and never will be. I am however confident in my in hand grading abilities in areas of numismatics that I collect and am comfortable with. At the end of the day, that's all that is relevant. Because of my own due diligence, research, help from others, etc., I will never say I was taken advantage of a TPG bc I blindly trusted the holder.


Regardless of what a TPG, an App, or AI says, people will have their own opinions of a grade and agree or disagree. It's human nature. Honestly, it would be quite boring/sad if we lived in a world where AI determined a grade and everyone agreed it to be "accurate". Will just never happen. Much like the opinions in this thread, we can agree to disagree.

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Earle42's Avatar
United States
10029 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2023  8:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
This is the point I was trying to covey in my first reply to this thread. It is not the grading companies responsibility to teach the public about grading. Those that do put total faith in these companies are ignorant to an extent.


This is a very good point. I typically expect people to do their own homework. But I do not mind helping people to know where to go for accurate info either (I am sure you agree).

My problem with the companies is that while removing the full focus of the hobby from the coins themselves, they used their business to alter the hobby to focus on their own product of slab+label+coin. And any assigned value to that product disappears when the coin is cracked out, so the value is not about just the coin.

This also means that unlike the days where each coin was a historic gem valued for its own mintage and availability, collections have been lowered to being a bunch of "junk silver" (where applicable) and a few key dates.

People expect professionals to act that way. The companies deliberately choosing not to offer the best service possible be using what they called the inferior system of human grading is profiteering. individuals are looked at as crooked for profiteering. I view businesses practicing what appears to be profiteering, while being able to avoid it, as dishonest just like I would an individual dealer who practices profiteering (and I have met them as well).

That aspect of the businesses is what I would like to see go away.

How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
Download and read: Grading the graders
Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2
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