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Does This Count As A Fancy Note Worth Something?

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 Posted 10/05/2023  8:38 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add passthepuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Does this count as a fancy note, or do I just go ahead and spend it?

Does-This-Count-As-A-Fancy-Note-Worth-Something?
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 Posted 10/05/2023  8:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumismaticsFTW to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Why would it be fancy?
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 Posted 10/05/2023  9:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add smat45 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"broken ladder"? 1-8 but not in order...
I'd spend it...
smat
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Coinfrog's Avatar
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 Posted 10/05/2023  9:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Definitely not a fancy serial number.
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Sap's Avatar
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 Posted 10/05/2023  9:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Why would it be fancy?

I would assume the hypothesis is that it contains all the numerals 1through to 8 exactly once.

A note with the numerals 1 through to 8, in numerical order, would be a "ladder" and would certainly be worth something. A "jumbled ladder" isn't, sorry. Even a "just-slightly-jumbled-ladder" number like "12435678" wouldn't hold a premium, just like an "Almost Radar" like 12344231 isn't worth a premium either. That's because the number of "almost but not quite fancy" notes greatly exceeds the number of actual fancy notes. It's simply far too common to be "rare", and it's not an obvious-at-first-sight pattern.

Or look at it this way: there is only one way to arrange the digits 1 through 8 to form a ladder (or two, if you include the "reverse ladder")- so finding one is literally a 1 in 100 million chance. But there are eight factorial (8!) or 40,320 different ways to arrange the digits 1 though 8 that aren't ladders.

Yes, it's improbable - 40320 out of 99999999 is a 0.04% chance - but improbability alone does not make a "fancy number". After all, all serial numbers are "unique" and therefore equally improbable. the number "16784253" has exactly the same 1 in 100 million chance as "12345678". But it's not "fancy", because there's no pattern.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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 Posted 10/06/2023  12:38 am  Show Profile   Check datadragon's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add datadragon to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
SteveinTampa hilariously said Finding a Broken Ladder is the equivalent of finishing 9th out of 10 teams and getting a participation trophy on one of our previous discussions.
http://goccf.com/t/436076#3759582

16784253 has 8 unique digits. In 1.8% of 8-digit numbers, there are 8 unique digits so close to 2% of notes could have that type of finding so while they are indeed cool to find and may sell to some very casual collectors, they arent really considered hard to find or valuable and serious collectors arent interested. Compare that in 0.000003% of 8-digit numbers, there are forward runs of 8 or longer (a true ladder like 01234567 and these are rare and valuable and appeal to serious collectors.This is actually 'scrambled ladder' not 'broken ladder' although some mistakenly confuse the two, and unlike the other types of ladders mentioned below really should not have any added value. Yes some very casual collectors on places such as ebay may buy them either because they think something is interesting for a personal collection, or more likely just being led to believe wrongly they hold similar value to the other types of ladders by sellers saying 'rare' or other terms. To serious collectors and dealers they are worth face value.

Ladder - In a ladder serial number, every digit is one number higher (or lower) than the previous digit. Really the only true ladder is a serial number than contains a letter then 12345678 followed by another letter. The true ladder in its purest form is only printed once for every 96 million notes in a standard print run. True ladders are rare and command a premium.

There are also many other examples of ladders. Some people would consider A00012345A to be a ladder. Others might call D00034567A a ladder which have duplicate numbers.The next closest thing to a true ladder in terms of value is the true reverse, backwards, or step down ladder. It looks like A87654321A in its best form. Reverse ladders are fun, but they are always less desirable than up ladders.

A cheap form of a ladder comes in the "broken" ladder. It reads something like A01200304A. Some people like these, but they are really just more affordable versions of what people really want. Some do collect them and may sell on places like ebay to those casual collectors for small premium. Some scam artists have recently tried to push the "scrambled ladder." The scrambled ladder consists of 8 unique numbers, like A92378514A like your note.but have no added value normally to true collectors and dealers although again that does mean someone might buy them, however on a $1 may be fun to keep while a $100 I would not.

Edited by datadragon
10/06/2023 12:45 am
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 Posted 10/06/2023  01:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add january1may to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The math is slightly off here. A true scrambled ladder (as in the OP) would have all the digits that would have made a full ladder; 92378514 would not be a true scrambled ladder because it has both 1 and 9 (but no 0).

There are three options for a full 8-digit ladder (four if you include 34567890, ten if you include stuff like 67890123). Each of those corresponds to 8!=40320 different possible scrambled ladders (40318 if we exclude the full ladder and the reverse ladder), or 0.04% of the total possible notes.
This means that a scrambled ladder has a total probability of 0.12%, or 12 times more common than a 8-digit radar. Rare enough to be noticed (0.12% still means just one note in 800), common enough to not be all that valuable.
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 Posted 10/06/2023  2:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SteveInTampa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's an interesting serial number but not considered fancy in my opinion except maybe on Planet ebay where anything goes. Keeping a $1, $2 or $5 note because you like doesn't hurt much, but squirreling away a circulated $100 note just doesn't make sense these days.
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