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Puzzled: Ebay Slabbed Coins For Far Less Than Grading Costs.

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Brandmeister's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  11:51 am Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this topic Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I am new to buying coins on ebay, and I have been puzzled at the prices for certain PCGS slabbed coins. I see unremarkable business and proof strike coins selling for $3, $5, $7 all the time.

Given the (apparent) cost of grading, how can people have spent money to slab commonly available coins, where even the best grades don't seem to cover the cost of grading? How do these coins circulate onto ebay to sell for a few bucks? I don't understand the economics of these auctions.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  12:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
They submit coins in bulk (discounted fees). The "losers" are dumped at a loss, but the "winners" (i.e. the 70s) pay for the grading and (hopefully) net a profit.
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hfjacinto's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  12:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's really simple, this is a hypothetical.

A dealer will send 100 coins to get graded.
Of those 100 coins the economics require at least 50 coins to get a 70. Those 50 will pay for the cost of the grading and the coins.
The other coins are pure profit even if sold below cost, so they get dumped on ebay. People that buy those get a bargain.

In terms of math. You have 100 coins that cost you $10 each and it costs $15 for a bulk submission. Total cost is $1000+ $1500 or $2500

The 50 coins that get graded a 70 sell for $50 each so you recouped your total cost. You can sell the others at $15 each and still make a profit.

The above is overly simplistic but that's the gist.
Edited by hfjacinto
12/18/2023 10:10 pm
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bobby131313's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  12:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add bobby131313 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Nothing puzzling about it at all.

In addition to the scenarios mentioned earlier, new collectors seem to ALL be infatuated with "sending it in."

I bet 30% of all the posts I see in FB groups end with "Should I send it in?" Then more new collectors chime in with "I would!" or "Absolutely!" So off it goes. Then they get back something like this...

Puzzled:-Ebay-Slabbed-Coins-For-Far-Less-Than-Grading-Costs.

20 people told them it's plated and a damaged coin. Several with "Group Expert" tags like me, but 2 clueless people say stuff like "Man, that's the shiniest one I've ever seen!" or "That'll grade MS67 for sure!" and those 2 comments are what they latch onto and now they have a $50 slab with zero value.

And shame on PCGS for even slabbing that.
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Brandmeister's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  12:36 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I understand that hypothetical situation. But many of these are coins that sell for cheap. Like a 2002-S 5c PR70DCAM is $15-30 by auction result. And there is no guarantee that you are going to sell it, and you aren't going to get a PR70DCAM on every proof nickel you submit. I assume that the mental calculus has to be something like:

price(PR70DCAM)*probability(PR70DCAM) + price(67,68,69)*(1-probability(PR70DCAM)) > (1+margin)*(acquire+grading+shipping)

Can bulk grading really be that cheap?
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Brandmeister's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  12:41 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Bobby, I get that scenario, too. But it doesn't seem like n00bs sending individual coins could generate enough volume to fill an online store with thousands of PCGS slabs. Also, I think if a n00b got torched for fifty bucks on a worthless coin, they would be more inclined to keep it rather than sell it for five bucks and take a -$45 loss.

A lot of these look like proof set breaks where everything was submitted, but in a modern proof set (silver or clad), who bothers to grade the nickel and cent? Again, I get that people might pay up for State Quarter proofs, for example. But why would a dealer submit the other coins instead of just selling them raw or in a roll?
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ijn1944's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  1:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ijn1944 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree totally with jbuck and bobby. The same is true with grading trading cards. Check out the reddit COINS subreddit--much the same.

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Brandmeister's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  2:06 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That just doesn't make much sense to me. Some of these 40% and 90% silver coins are selling for like $1 over melt, in a graded slab.
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jbuck's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  2:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
But many of these are coins that sell for cheap. Like a 2002-S 5c PR70DCAM is $15-30 by auction result.
And here you have the downside of all these bulk submissions. Whether the Mint is getting better, or the graders have become more generous... the market gets flooded with the winners (70s), so prices come down.
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hfjacinto's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  2:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You might also send in a full mint set as the silver coins sell for a large premium in 70. You'll take the loose on the cent and nickel.

From speaking to a dealer if one sends in 1000+ coins the bulk submission is or was less than $10 per coin. I have no evidence it's that low but with so many graded modern coins I wouldn't be surprised if it was that low.

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Brandmeister's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  2:53 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
See, that doesn't make any sense to me. How long does it take to split a mint set, versus taking a 2x $10 loss on the nickel and cent?
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hfjacinto's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  2:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
When you send in hundreds of mint sets, the value of your time adds up. It's cheaper to send it in than you or your staff take it apart.
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ijn1944's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  3:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ijn1944 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Brandmeister... This has been an interesting conversation. From your perspective, what to you think is behind all this? What accounts for the 'chaos' in grading and related economics?
Edited by ijn1944
12/18/2023 3:01 pm
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 Posted 12/18/2023  5:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add lcutler to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I couldn't agree more with bobby131313, I've been on some of those facebook groups and called a liar and a hater just because I said someone's "error" coin was damaged.
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Brandmeister's Avatar
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 Posted 12/18/2023  7:24 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
When you send in hundreds of mint sets, the value of your time adds up. It's cheaper to send it in than you or your staff take it apart.

LOL! If you take a -$20 loss on every mint set, and you send 100 mint sets, that's -$2000. I figure I can safely take apart a mint set and pack the flips in 6 minutes. 12 at the outside. So that's 10 sets per hour, 10 hours, or $200/hr. We can go halvsies—you can pay me $100/hr to separate your mint sets into flips! I could even be talked into the low, low price of $50/hr, but shhh, don't tell my Coin Separator Union rep. =P
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 Posted 12/18/2023  8:00 pm  Show Profile   Check Brandmeister's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Brandmeister... This has been an interesting conversation. From your perspective, what to you think is behind all this? What accounts for the 'chaos' in grading and related economics?


I believe we have an imperfect understanding of the system. Large coin retailers aren't fools, or they would be out of business. They aren't incorporating repeatable, easily avoidable losses into every transaction. I can imagine any number of possibilities. For one, the $10 number could be way off at scale. For another, maybe my sampling period is at a low point price-wise. Perhaps there is another factor at work, for example, a deal packaging phenomenon or a purchase add-on phenomenon. Possibly a marketing advantage like number of listings, or generation of numerous sales and positive reviews. Those dealers are getting something out of it that they perceive to be worth more than the cost. But they aren't just blindly paying $10 to slab a nickel that sells for $3. Particularly when the costs are up front, and the coins can sit in inventory for a long time, tying up that cash outlay.

If they are, then that business model is ripe for disruption.
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