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Valued Member
United States
314 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1699 Posts |
If everyone is hoarding these, and the only ones getting out are to collectors, will these go up in value? Thanks
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6326 Posts |
Time will tell........ but keep in mind that the Log Cabin "P" Mint is the lowest mintage Cent in 50 years ! .......  And you have to take each design mintage "seperately".....NOT combined, because each one is a different design, even though all four are for 2009. Some people just look at the " projected" total mintage of all four.......I don't agree with that....to me... each mintage (P,D, or S) of each design should be looked at seperately. (keep in mind too though, that the other 3 designs (or at least the last two, *might* have DRASTICALLY REDUCED MINTAGE NUMBERS AS WELL)They are NOT over-minting dimes or nickels this year so that TONS of them are sitting in BU condition in bank vaults just waiting to be distributed like some have * theorized* will be the case with the '09 Cents.........so.......they " may" cut short mintage numbers for the Cents too just like the dimes and nickels for this year. I've even heard that the Mint wants to cut mintage numbers up to 70% on everything for the year and possibly next year too !  ........ Be interesting to see what happens. Tough economic times.....and too many coins out there already....." Should" translate into low mintage numbers right ? ......  Edited by eaglefoot
05/12/2009 09:27 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1882 Posts |
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If everyone is hoarding these, and the only ones getting out are to collectors, will these go up in value? The value is already high. Because they have been hoarded, I think they will go down in value. These things are sometimes going for 50 cents *each* at retail. In a couple years, I say no way. Now, if you are getting them at face value and want to know whether they will (still) be worth more than face in a few years....I don't know. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
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.but keep in mind that the Log Cabin "P" Mint is the lowest mintage Cent in 50 years ! ....... Very true and it has a mintage just slightly less than that of the 1968-S cent and we all know how rare that coin is. (And it wasn't as eagerly hoarded as the Log cabin cent, so there will be more Unc Log cabins than Unc 68-S cents.) Or if we go all the way back to the last cent with a lower mintage, the 1955-S cent, we have a coin with roughly a sixth the mintage of the Log Cabin and after just fifty five years it is up to the staggering levels of fifty cents to a dollar in Unc! Why am I not impressed with the future potential of the Log Cabin cents? Quote:
Tough economic times.....and too many coins out there already....."Should" translate into low mintage numbers right ? .. Yes but "low" is a relative term. Low as compared to the mintages in previous years? YES! Low as compared to the number of collectors at any and all levels of interest? NO! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6326 Posts |
I don't really diagree with you much on this Condor. How could I ?.......facts are factz. And that argument against any "zeal" for these is as valid as could be made. But then business strike U.S. Mint 2009 2 Roll Sets going for $100.00 doesn't "equate" with your .50 Cent value theory ! ......  I realize that low mintage alone certainly won't and doesn't always "cut it".....but what was a "low mintage" comparable with our population size in 1955 ?, then a "low mintage" comparable with our population base in 2009 ? ......the country about doubled in size ! So, a "low mintage" now "COULD/MIGHT" be comparable to a "low mintage" 50 years ago....... Plus, I know you need demand and low supply.....sustained interest......first coin or a first year "change" type of thing, and a few other things too. And even then certainly wouldn't guarantee "a nice premium" in 50 years from now. BUT "Bubble" or no bubble......the excitement is fun to revel in "right now" !.... And, besides, I figure if I dip my hand into "a little bit of everything" that JUST MAYBE, one of these times, I might get a little lucky with having some Ultra Modern "new" materials that would be good to have in a collection in 50 years...(that would put me at 90 years old !  )....but that's all really. And all of your good valid points notwithstanding.....I'm excited by the idea of having these.....Both Copper and biz. strikes for this year ! My inheritors hopefully will enjoy them too and not look at them as "garbage coins" or "worthless cheap Zinc".....as has been said about these new Lincolns. I've never planned on being able to buy Microsoft Inc. with the proceeds from these 2009 Cent redesigns for this year.....  But I know ! I know !.....these are not even in the same realm as "Classic Coinage" !....but I don't "just" collect "Classic" coins, I also just "like" Ultra Modern coins ! And I "want" there to be some exciting things about our "new stuff" ! I just want to get "in" on a good and exciting thing with these new Lincolns......and if in 50 years they are still holding a nice value......that's pleasing for me.......if not.......That changes absolutely NOTHING ......I "still" love these ! I know it must be frustrating to read comments relating "Modern" materials to "Classic" materials........and trying to equate the same types of reasoning pursuant in collecting them.......there are similar things of course.....but it's also just very different IMHO. I like "both" and I don't consider one to be a waste of money. Edited by eaglefoot
05/14/2009 08:51 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2335 Posts |
I have noticed that the log cabin roll sets from the mint are now selling on ebay for around $50, which is a long way from the $80-100 they went for when first available. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them selling in the $15-20 range by next summer. IMO, the people that will make the most money on these are the ones that bought from the mint & sold immediately. That doesn't mean I think there is anything wrong with collecting moderns, everyone should collect what they like. After all, the moderns of today are the classics of tomorrow. The difference between then and now is that mintages are higher & there are a lot more people hoarding moderns. Those two factors will make it much harder for any modern coin to become a true rarity. I compare most of the moderns being hyped today to the 1883 Liberty nickel without cents. So many were saved that they are neither rare nor expensive compared to other coins from the same era. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6326 Posts |
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IMO, the people that will make the most money on these are the ones that bought from the mint & sold immediately.
Those who are in this hobby for the money, ebay, and re-sale value, I'm sure are well aware of the "bubble" phenomena. And I just watch that grinning from the sidelines.....that's all. But I've never sold a coin in my life......nor do I ever intend to. Anything decently over "issue price" next summer or in 50 years will make me VERY pleased ! Quote:
After all, the moderns of today are the classics of tomorrow. The difference between then and now is that mintages are higher & there are a lot more people hoarding moderns. Those two factors will make it much harder for any modern coin to become a true rarity.
And, again, I would just say that it seems "relative" when comparing "population bases" versus "mint numbers" in 50 year increments. In that sense, they " minted just as many" back then as they do now. It's all relative. We've added 150 MILLION PEOPLE TO OUR SOCIETY SINCE THEN !Quote:
.but what was a "low mintage" comparable with our population size in 1955 ?, then a "low mintage" comparable with our population base in 2009 ? ......the country about doubled in size ! So, a "low mintage" now "COULD/MIGHT" be comparable to a "low mintage" 50 years ago....... But regardless of how many coins per American "back then" versus "now"......and how many were saved by the percentage of coin collectors back then vs. the percentage of the population who saves them now....and how many "per population base" existed in great condition then "per population base" to nowadays.....and since obviously a "low mintage" doesn't necessarily translate into a "good money value" anyway......and the "true rarity" chances of Ultra Moderns again "compared to the population" back then.......doesn't change my love for these coins and the excitement that endures for them.......I agree with "Collect what you like" ......  Edited by eaglefoot
05/13/2009 4:28 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1882 Posts |
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But then business strike U.S. Mint 2009 2 Roll Sets going for $100.00 doesn't "equate" with your .50 Cent value theory ! Anyone paying that much for rolls is buying the wrapper, not just the coins. 50 cents per coin is a *high* price, sold individully. Why in the world would anyone even be paying $25 per roll right now? They currently go for $5-$7 (or less) per roll. Comparing these to the 1968-D is not a fair comparison. These are being hoarded by the millions in mint state. Maybe the 1968 cents were also being hoarded and sold for crazy prices on ebay?  |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
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But then business strike U.S. Mint 2009 2 Roll Sets going for $100.00 doesn't "equate" with your .50 Cent value theory ! Short term hype. They've already lost half that hype value. In another thread the question was asked what we thought they would be worth in 20 years. My prediction was about $4 per roll set or about half issue price. Of course yiu never know, after five years the 2004 nickel roll sets are still selling at around three to four times issue price or ten times face. So the Population has doubled since 1955 with it's 55-S cent with the "low mintage" of around 50 million. So double THAT for a comparitive "low mintage" and you have 100 million. The 2009 P log cabin is still three times that. "low" is still a relative term. Quote:
Comparing these to the 1968-D is not a fair comparison. These are being hoarded by the millions in mint state. Sure it's a fair comparison (and I compared it to the 68-S not the 68-D, important difference) The two have close to the same mintage, and S mint coins tended to be more heavily hoarded than the P or D coins (Especially since it was the first S mint cent for circulation in 13 years.). So you have a coin of roughly the same mintage which was also hoarded, but not hoarded to anywhere near the extent as the 2009 coin, and after 40 years it is worth a dollar or two a roll in MS. With the 2009 you have roughly the same mintage but a whole lot MORE of them hoarded in Mint State than the 68-S and what will their potential be in forty years? I think it's a good comparison. Edited by Conder101
05/14/2009 12:32 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1882 Posts |
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I think it's a good comparison. Sorry, I didn't notice the "S" MM. I completely agree with you. |
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Valued Member
United States
116 Posts |
Decided to join in and go wild over the new LMC. Had to go to the bank to get some money and turn in a new order for checks. Wanted to get one roll for my son and one roll for my daughter but I really went crazy and got two rolls each. Had to pay 50 cent for each one, but saved that $10 shipping fee. Based on what I'm hearing, think I'll cash them out in a few months and buy General Motor's. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4085 Posts |
My 10 year old spotted a Log Cabin in the fountain in the middle of Don Pablos. "Hey Dad, there's one of the new pennies!" That's my boy - good eyes!! Much to my wife's dismay, I reached in and fished it out! I substituted two Lincoln Memorials instead. Then my son said "Hey, there's a Wheat penny too!" Against my better judgement, I left that one alone. Not sure my wife could have handled another fishing expedition. Was probably a 1909-S VDB... First 2009 I have seen in the wild. Ken |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2669 Posts |
I got 2 in change at an Arby's last night. I usually don't check my change right away but they were so bright I flipped 'em over real quick - both log cabins! I let out a "Whoop!", handed the guy back a quarter and said "got any more pennies in there?". After a weird look and a question to his manager, he changed out my quarter... and all 25 were log cabins. Now I just need to find out what bank they get their rolls from  . I'd have emptied their vault but figured some other people might want some too. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1228 Posts |
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Replies: 39 / Views: 3,658 |
First Page
Posted 05/11/2009 9:09 pm
