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Mintage Figures, Rarity, And Value

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PennehChaos's Avatar
United States
311 Posts
 Posted 07/21/2009  4:35 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add PennehChaos to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Point of interest:

At this moment, on ebay.com, if you run a search for:

1914-D Lincoln Cent -copy -replica

you get 72 results for regular auctions, 153 if you include stores.

If you run a search for:

1914-S Lincoln Cent -copy -replica

You get only 46 results, 135 if you include stores

Supposedly the -S had four times the mintage of the -D. It's worth roughly 10 times as much according to most guides.

I donno, I'm just not feeling it

And I still don't know why, after more than a year of roll hunting $50-$100/week, I still haven't come up one really nice 1990-D LMC out of the four Billion that were supposedly released into circulation.

I'm calling shenanigans! Who's with me? I say we storm the Mint and demand an audit
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mycrob's Avatar
United States
2602 Posts
 Posted 07/21/2009  5:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycrob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Probably some of the 14-D are counterfeit, but probably not many. Sionce 14-D is more coveted that just about any date (except 09S VDB and maybe 31S), there will be a lot of activity to move this coin at auction, more so than the 14-S. Probably there are a lot of 14-S in someone's hoard waiting to be sold, but the market is too saturated- demand isn't as high.

Don't know what to tell you on 90D. Keep searching and you'll find it! Happy hunting
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steve199's Avatar
United States
1882 Posts
 Posted 07/21/2009  6:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add steve199 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Supposedly the -S had four times the mintage of the -D. It's worth roughly 10 times as much according to most guides.


So you'd expect the 14-D to be only 4 times more than a 14-S? Prices don't usually track with supply (or demand) in such a straightforward manner. For example in decrease in supply of oil (or gasoline) by a relatively small amount (say 5-10%) tends to have a much larger impact on prices than 5 or 10 percent.

Valued Member
PennehChaos's Avatar
United States
311 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2009  3:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PennehChaos to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No, I don't expect price to be exactly proportional to rarity- what I expect is to not see MORE auctions for a coin with a mintage of 1 million than a coin from the same year, same series, with a mintage of 4 million.

Looking at straight auctions, not including store inventory (i.e., i'll take a rare coin, put a stupidly high price on it, and wait for a sucker), there are 50% more Denver coins on the market!

The S is still a semi-key and certainly worth selling, even in G-AG grade... it just doesn't make sense.

(and the market can't be saturated for 14-Ss, because I don't have one yet! . Seriously, whoever it is at numismaster who says a VF20 14-S is only worth $24 is welcome to sell me as many as he's got at that price)
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mycrob's Avatar
United States
2602 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2009  5:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycrob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Maybe the 14S is way underpriced for it's rarity. There are a lot of bargain semi-keys out there!
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biokemist6's Avatar
United States
12437 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2009  6:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biokemist6 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hi PennehChaos,
in regards to the Numismedia pricing of Lincolns, I am not sure what is going on there- they seem to be consistently under even Greysheet prices which is just crazy Now for a bit of shameless self promotion, I have a F-12 1914S available in my sales thread
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BadThad's Avatar
United States
19935 Posts
 Posted 07/23/2009  10:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BadThad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I hear you on the 1990-D! I only have a total of FIVE in my BU roll set for that year from searching.
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Conder101's Avatar
United States
17884 Posts
 Posted 07/25/2009  12:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
what I expect is to not see MORE auctions for a coin with a mintage of 1 million than a coin from the same year, same series, with a mintage of 4 million.

The reason you see more is BECAUSE it is a scarce coin. This makes people search it out and offer it. Thus it appears more often than the higher mintage coin. he 14-D will be offered in any grade while the 14-S is less likely to be offered in the lower grades because it won't bring as much and they are less likely to be worth fooling with after all the fees. Take it another step. A search for 1909-S VDB - copy - replica returns 77 hits. Even more than the 14-D which has more than twice the mintage and 1/8th the mintage of the 14-S.
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hockingzig's Avatar
United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 07/26/2009  09:29 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hockingzig to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Check your price guides for mintage and values of 1951 nickels and try to explain that one! I agree mintage doesn't translate to value but some of the mintage to value correlations are mind boggling. I think in some cases it has to do with significant errors being found in one versus the other, then mintages are less important.
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United States
20753 Posts
 Posted 07/26/2009  3:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

And I still don't know why, after more than a year of roll hunting $50-$100/week, I still haven't come up one really nice 1990-D LMC out of the four Billion that were supposedly released into circulation.

I'm calling shenanigans! Who's with me? I say we storm the Mint and demand an audit

I've noticed that problem with a lot of coins. The 1990 LMC's are just one of many that for some reason all look like they've been in circulation for a few hundred years. I sometimes really wonder where they've been when you see a coin that is almost new and looks like it's old.
The weird thing about coins is some of the lowest mintages are of real value and some of the ones that have high mintages are expensive. Never could figure out why.
Take the 1932D Merc Dime for example. 4th lowest mintage in the entire series and no big value. Then there is that famous 31S Lincoln. Hardly any made and too of no real big value.
If you wonder through all the coins and their mintage quantities vs prices you end up with just a mystery. Naturally there may be an explanation somewhere, maybe, I guess.
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