Georgivs, Edwards & Victoria Coins - Increase In Value?

Awesome, someone who thinks like me! These Monarchs and the dates you mentioned are the MEAT AND POTATOES of Canadian Numismatics. It simply doesn't get any better.



Glenn

I think the subject of how well the hobby of Canadian coin collecting will sustain itself in the future is both interesting and unpredicable.

As background, I collect Victorian Canadian, Newfoundland, and Maritime copper in both mint state and circulated grades. I do not collect modern Canadian coinage. I collect as a hobby and not an investment, but I would like to eventually get most of my money back when I sell.

At their top ends, I tend to look at U.S. coin market and the Newfoundland coin market as two extremes of numismatic markets. Only a handful of U.S. coins are truly rare, having say less than 20 pieces. I think that remains true even when talking about condition rare U.S. pieces. However, U.S. demand is high in relation to the number of coins available, so prices remain very high. For example, the top two or three 1877 Indian Head cents are worth about $150,000 each. The top 1873 closed 3 Indian Head cent (a variety) is worth about $50,000. You could readily and successfully sell either Indian Head cent at any major U.S. auction.

On the other hand, many (if not most) coins in the Newfoundland series are condition rare. Yet demand is quite low for these coins, usually only a few collectors, so the prices remain relatively low. As an example, I own an 1880 oval O cent (a variety that has long been part of the mainstream set) that is probably one of the best two or three known. It is every bit as rare as the two mentioned Indian Head cents. It is worth about $10,000, if I can find a motivated buyer. The Newfoundland market is thin and I may have to pick my spot to sell this coin at a good price. A friend of mine contends that the lack of availability of Newfoundland coins discourages people from collecting them, keeping the demand and prices down. He may be right.

The Canadian decimal market obviously lies somewhere between the U.S. and Newfoundland markets. It has rare and condition rare coins like both of those markets. The demand is nowhere near the U.S. market, but higher than the Newfoundland market. Consequently, I think prices in the Canadian market will be more sensitive to small increases or decreases in demand than will the U.S. market. The U.S. market can afford to lose a few high end collectors without materially affecting the pricing. On the other hand, the future of the high end Canadian market absolutely depends upon new collectors entering the market to replace those that leave. The Newfoundland market will be even more sensitive. One or two new high end NF collectors either way can affect the entire pricing structure.

Many of you may not care about these high end markets, but you should be aware of them. In my opinion supply and demand in the high end markets ripple down through the Sheldon scale. When demand outstrips supply in the higher grades, collectors settle for lesser coins and the circulated prices tend to rise. Witness the U.S. market in recent years. When high end supply meets high end demand, circulated prices tend to remain relatively stable, absent a large influx of beginning collectors. I think the Canadian decimal market has been there for a while. The very best Canadian mint state coins sell for prices well above Trends. Good luck getting the full Trends price for an MS-63 coin, or an EF-45 coin.

I believe the future success of the Canadian decimal market requires both new collectors to enter the bottom of the market and existing collectors to move up the Sheldon scale as they accumulate the means to do so. Meanwhile I keep buying circulated key date Newfoundland coins hoping the world wakes up to how rare they really are. :))

Just my Two Cents worth. Happy collecting.

anyone looking for an 1880 $2?

I do collect a lot of modern material, so keep that in mind when I say that I think there is very little worthwhile collecting after about 1967. There are some varieties, and I particularly like the 1965-1978 QE2 portrait, but most of it could rightfully be called pocket change.
Conversely, the Victorian and George V series interest me, but not so much the Edwardian material.
The hobby is whatever you want it to be.

When I go to shows, I can almost always count myself among the "young" people in attendance. At
31 years old now, that says a lot about the collecting demographic. Where the next generation will come
from, I am not entirely sure. I wouldn't count out the appeal and affordability of the Canadian market to
fuel an influx of US collectors in the future.