Looking Into The Future.....comments?

I for one am concerned about high quality, rare coins being able to maintain the pace they have set over the last 50 yr.

Recently, a member posted a pic of a Red Book, from 1964 I believe, and it showed the price of a 1909-S VDB. For that coin's value to continue growing at the pace set in the past 46 yrs, it will cost in excess of $200,000 in 2055. We have seen the housing bubble pop. A friend of mine owns his own real estate company and he has wondered out loud recently if we will ever see a house worth $300,000 in 2007 ever be worth that again in our life time. From that prospective, could we be on a coin bubble?
Jim

Jim: If you look at the prices of say Milk over the last 20 or more years you would see not a massive change. Same with a loaf of bread. Same with a pad of paper.
Contrary to that is the prices of a car which keep going up, up, up. Houses too have gone through some ruff times but compare the prices of a house with 30 or more years ago. Up, up, up.
There are reasons for such increases or stable prices. To make a car or house it takes people and the wages have gone up, up, up so the end product must reflect that increase. Items like Bread, Milk, Butter, a Hamburger really haven't escalated to those same excessive extents. The reason is more productive methods in farming although the truckers that deliver those products have had some substantial raises.
Now with coins there is a completely different situation. To use that 1909S VDB as an example. They don't make them anymore. Well not legally that is. So regardless of means of production, raises in salaries, transportation means being reduced, There just isn't any more of that coin being made or found. Next there is that thing called population explosions. Imagine the population in the USA in 1909 compared to today. I don't know how many were in the USA in 1909 but today there is approximately 300,000,000 people. Soon there will be 400 million, then 500 million, etc. And still there is only 484,000 1909S VDB's out there. Now what if only 1% of the people collect coins today. That's 3 million and if only 10% collect Lincoln Cents, that's 300,000 people that want a coin that had 484,000 minted and no one knows how many have been lost.
To make a long story even longer consider the future of possibly 500,000,000 people in the USA, add many more millions in other countries. And imagine how many want a coin that has only 484,000 minted.
By then that coin will sell for a real, real, real lot.
Or maybe everyone will loose interest I'm coins.

Advantage of bullion over 90% coins is that the bullion clearly states the quantity involved. Most people don't know how much silver is in a 1963 quarter, but a round that says ".999 fine silver one troy ounce" is understood by all. And no 1099 forms for you ETF fans.

I think your wrong there. I know a guy that owns a bar and he has customers in there all night long and me too sometimes.


That too can back fire. I have been saving 7.63 Mouser Ammon for my Bolo Handle Mauser for a long, long time. It started to turn green and now barely has the power to get the slug out of the barrel.

Carl,

A few posts back you mention how prices of goods have gone up appreciably for things like cars and houses due to wage increases and the like. You also mention certain items where the prices have not gone up - such as bread and milk.

The problem here is that our government manipulates and regulates the prices of farm goods such as corn, wheat, soybeans, milk, etc. Some farmers are paid to leave their ground fallow - while others are paid because they use their land. This, along with improvements in farming, is what has kept the prices of food low.

Poor subject with my family. Both myself and my wife are from farming backgrounds. All are giving up since what you say just isn't so.