VAMs. Where Is The Hobby Headed?

There is absolutely no doubt where it's headed. The only questions are, how long will it take and how complete will it be? The study of coin varieties is about the study of die pairs. It's that simple. Every other denomination is studied in that fashion.

VAM's will go there too, eventually. Step by step, people are doing the staggering amount of legwork required to research them in a fashion resembling completeness, and the easy collaborative nature of the Internet will ensure that the information is disseminated freely. You won't be able to stop it.

There will always be those who wish to bend the whole scene to their own personal profit, but there will also always be altruists building the pyramid, stone by stone. Every piece of data builds upon the next, and the time will come when it's far more difficult to profit from hidden knowledge.

We're gonna wear them down just as inevitably as water erosion wears limestone. Probably not in your lifetime or mine, but the job will be done.

I am totally unimpressed with titles, and 500-1000 collectors is, in my opinion ridiculously high given my definition of 'collector'. It is idiotic to think that 4000 would be an unsustainable number of collectors, given the numbers of Morgans available. To a true collector, the importance of owning major rarities will not stifle the desire to collect. It is quite realistic however to think that the number of 4000 would be unsustainable when referring to that many dealers. What is the dealer - collector ratio now ? Ten to one, twenty to one? What are the interests of these luminaries that you speak of? Mainly dealers, aren't they?

The fact that you posed the question of the future leads me to believe that you, yourself have doubts, based on the current state of events.

Here is what I think, as I feel that I know what you are getting at Oz, and since I only own two or three Morgans and no Peace, I am not much worried for my own sake, but I do sense the frustrations and worries of many a folk, both dealer and collector, speculator and investor.


I feel that if the overall health of vamming could be put onto a graph, we might see that the heyday has come and past. A couple of years ago, the hobby was booming, dealers were prosperous, and collectors were getting lucky at an increased rate over that which they do now. Competition among dealers, among collectors, and among investors have left voids in the available stockpiles of the most sought after holes in that collection due to an increasing number of dealers and investors.

I see the proliferation of vamming as the hobby of the future, the hobby with the greatest potential, to be the hype that serves as its own worst enemy. The hype may have had its roots based in truth, but a truth that could not sustain itself through the explosive influx of new dealers, collectors and investors that all find themselves in the same boat today. Your coin is not worth today what it was a year ago, and that is the bottom line. You wonder, will the good times return? If so, when? Is it the effect of the current economic situation?

Indicators abound in the skyrocketing numbers of members on forum boards, in the questions being asked of demographics as related to vamming, in the numbers of of folks making a quick visit but never to return, in the numbers of folks wanting little information on the coin other than how much is it worth, in the number of people truly interested in sets, in the questions asked of how to lure fresh blood.

There are only so many VAM XXs to go around, but then, who really cares ? The dealer does not care unless he has one to sell. The investor doesn't care unless he can pick one up at a steal. Only the collector cares, and the fact of the matter is the collector is getting older, and those young newbies being brought into the hobby are not collectors, they are prospective investors and future dealers.

The economy is dictating which way people with go in the future of vamming. In the 1950s and 1960s when many of the current collector got into coin collecting, the economy was great, the good times were rolling, the American dream was becoming a reality for many, people were living the good life on the average workweek of 40 hours or less. Leisure time was abundant.



I don't know what the average workweek is today, but I would venture to say is is radically different than then. Today many folks work 60 hours plus just to make ends meet, and have little time or money to put forth into a hobby. The investors now see this great VAM investment potential of a couple of years ago as risky business today, and the dealers suffer as a result.



Too many searchers for the same coin, not enough of that coin to go around, sound like the perfect storm for an upswing in value, doesn't it? Not when interest is being lost by those who were only in it to make a profit in the first place, and those types of folks far outnumbered the collector. It is a buyer's market right now, but should you jump on the coin that seems like such a great deal relative to what it would have sold for two years ago? Will the prices continue to fall? It was worth $1000 last year, I can get it for $700 now, will it be worth only $500 in another six months? Will collectors be replaced by younger collectors, or just more dealers and investors? What happens when the collectors are gone, and only dealers and investors are left? And then when the investors jump ship? Relate it all to the Dow Jones, or the Standard and Poor's. Put it all on a graph chart. It would look like a roller coaster.

I think as Dave does, the end results are inevitable, the hobby will eventually arrive in a far more orderly and organized state, as there will always be a few folks who will sacrifice to promote the hobby rather than the business, knowledge and truth will win in the end but there will be plenty of ups and downs before that happens.

There is one aspect that will continue to help drive the underlying value of vams and that is the price of silver.

I brought up this discussion thread as I wanted to examine the pros's and con's of vamming. As I have said before, it is not for the feint of heart as there is a steep learning curve. For those willing to spend the time it is very rewarding. Morgan dollars are replete with varieties, many in high grade.
One thing this hobby has taught me is to question. Knowledge is king. But in questioning the process, it also has made me question the underlying premises of the hobby, hence the question, where is this hobby headed?

Where the future of vaming goes I for one can not conclude..But I don't see that its going to stop at any time in the future as there are many of us who love to solve riddles, just as we have discussed they why's on many of the fine points of vaming or the process of coinage and the minting process to think tank the possible answers of how these hundred year old coins developed there flaws..Though it does depend on the amount of time one has to learn the observed errors, I really don't think that takes all that much time to learn how to see these errors.
However I do believe it takes some time in order you don't do the newbie thing and buy the coin before really KNOWING what you have, Take 1889-P for example.(I hope my feble memmory serves me right here)..It has the most doubled ears of any coin I know...I can't for the life of understand what the big deal is in its interests...yet there are so many listings for one reason alone....they all happened
in so many of the 89's dies that were produced, and they are all slightly different....for the collector...who could just have well collected "Beenie Babies' when they were the rage for your kids, they offer an abundance of varieties that are easily collectible.
Vaming does offer a wide variety of collecting interests to every one.. the one thing that ALWAYS surfaces to the top is due to the REGISTRY set collectors...They operate far above the normal collector..Very much like those investors who only collect MS 65 and up for there ENTIRE collection........I think someone who can collect the 1878-s in MS68 at a mire $25,000, IS NOT in the same boat as most of us......and for vamming.....it is the same.....we can look at it as though only the rich and famous can collect these trinkets.......
BUT JUST LIKE "CCF" there are tons of us who collect something to fill the holes in our albums......and certainly there's not a darn thing wrong with that......
personally with the economy situation as it is...I think its a buyers market, I do construction, and the housing is WAY DOWN.. and not likely to improve for the next 10 years.....but thats an opportunity for those who have time NOT to be looking for a quick buck....and in the mean time there are those of us
WHO WILL continue to further the expansion of knowledge and personally up date the files on the public site, so that there is more information available to any one who wants to take the time to research this VAM thing out and make some heads or tails out of it.....Its places like this that we can still evaluate the cause and effect of something with an open mind.......
SOME OF HAVE LARGE HOLES IN OUR HEADS.....Our mind is truly open!!

I will be waiting for your reply as well......

Without answering just yet, from my perspective there are a lot of facets and dynamics that are in play in the hobby that are not mutually supporting. Some are counter intuitive while others are at cross purposes.
For example: The concept of the die is the die. The concept seems simple but it is not applied in the way one would think.

something simple like that. should be supreme in its understanding... so simple, yet it is applied in a different way....once I heard the term, forensic..I knew I was in trouble....even with a microscope I knew I was in trouble.........