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Copper Hoarding - What's The Realistic Run Up?

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General Tso's Avatar
United States
341 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  11:57 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add General Tso to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
To answer the initial question of the thread from my prospective, I wounld't pay more than face for copper and don't believe we will see coppper much above what it is now. Maybe .50 cents more this year at most. I also don't believe the ban will be lifted in the near future.
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  12:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Once the Fed has gathered up most of the copper ones, there will be a chance...after all, we had the same scenario with silver coins when I was a kid. I know some may not agree, but I really think they may be taking them out of circulation...the fact that my bank sends them to the Fed every week has fueled my suspicions.It makes sense to do so and it makes sense not to let the public know, so I'm not thinking of it as a paranoid/big brother type deal.
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GRR's Avatar
United States
310 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  12:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GRR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm not saying that it's not smarter to just sell coppers now instead of hoarding. That may be the case

I just think it IS worth the effort to pull them from circulation.

Honestly, I think it would take $7.50 lb copper to start seeing the copper cents start disappearing. At that point, good luck to the government enforcing a no melt ban.
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Merc Crazy's Avatar
United States
201 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  1:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Merc Crazy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The government is NOT pulling copper.

Think about it, if they were, they'd be shipping out large amounts of zinc cents, no? When's the last time you got a box with only a few copper cents in it? The rate of copper would fall a heck of a lot faster if the US Government was pulling copper like they did with silver... silver went from 100% of coinage to less than 1% of coinage in about 4-5 years.
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rkrj's Avatar
United States
277 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  1:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add rkrj to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Copper is already around 4.50 a lb and going up, and there is a difference between hoarding copper and buying it. Right now all you have to do is roll search and you if you do a box a week you are going to get around 500 and 1000 copper pennies a week. They aren't that hard to store either, whether you roll and box them or just keep them in a jug. Pennies will be gone soon. It costs so mo much more to make them than they are worth.

Lastly, even if they don't go up that much in your lifetime, you can pass them down to family members and maybe one day your great grandchildren or a distance neice can turn them in for a small fortune and buy a house or go to college (can you imagine what that will cost in 100 + years), and all it cost you was 10 or 20 bucks in roll searching a week. If you can't afford that you might have the wrong hobby.
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  1:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
silver went from 100% of coinage to less than 1% of coinage in about 4-5 years.


So...I didn't say they started 5 years ago either...think about it
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w1a9c8k5's Avatar
United States
1348 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  1:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add w1a9c8k5 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
good point. I hoard copper like a mad man. I probably sort $1000 in pennies a month. I usualy pull anywhere from 25% to 30% coppers. My only real concern in how long can I got putting away $300 a month before it turns my rare coin buying to a stop.
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Merc Crazy's Avatar
United States
201 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  2:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Merc Crazy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm sorry, but if you even think the government is pulling copper... It's not worth the time and money that it would cost to do that.

*** Staff edit: Let's try to keep the discussion civil and choose your words with that in mind. ***

Think about it... you need machines to separate, labor costs of moving the cents, labor costs of sorting the cents, labor costs of storing and/or refining the cents... it's not profitable for a large entity like the government to do that right now.

You completely dodged my main question, anyway... when was the last time you picked up a box of cents that was almost entirely zinc? I'll wager never.
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timsumrall's Avatar
United States
1256 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  2:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add timsumrall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
argumentum ad hominem?

As to the dodged main question... Two weeks ago 100% zinc (pure 2010D). Three weeks ago about 95% (very sad). I wouldn't call these typical...yet.
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  2:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well, I'm not sure the government has ever been concerned about profitability and there are machines that can sort them quite easily.I heard the same arguements about silver way back when so feasabilty is not going to change my mind. And yes I have gotten bags with very little copper...even posted about one of them.Two points for you: If you have a "main question" then label it as such.Name calling or personal attacks are against the rules here so you may want to refrain from using the term idiot whether you feel that way or not.This forum is intended for for civil discussions and ideas.
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  2:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
argumentum ad hominem


Good one Tim
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Merc Crazy's Avatar
United States
201 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  2:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Merc Crazy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Believe whatever the you want, and I'll believe whatever I want.
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timsumrall's Avatar
United States
1256 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  4:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add timsumrall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't hoard copper. I accumulate cents :) I date/mint wrap everything I can get my hands on. Why? I think the 60's and 70's will be similar to the 50's and even more so if they lift the ban because I feel like the memorials will go first. If they lift the ban, I'm not selling, at least not as copper. Send my 60/70 Reds to the can man? No way!

Also when I'm old(er) and start to look for errors and varities, it's a whole lot better when you have lots of rolls same date/mint.

If the feds are pulling, I need to hurry. If not, I need to hurry.
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Rdwarrior's Avatar
United States
266 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  7:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Rdwarrior to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One consideration is, I believe copper prices will level off soon. Why?, Copper is a metal where in most of its uses it is replaceable with cheaper alternatives! and the higher the price the more attractive these alternatives become.
Copper water pipe is all ready being replaced in most of the new construction I have seen with the plastic tubing. Just take a trip to your local home improvement center you could check it out yourself, no copper needed.
Copper electrical wire could also be replaced with aluminum, I know they had some problems with it in the 1970s when they tried it back then, but these have been worked out. Even the copper in most electrical motors and transformers could go aluminum. The size of the Al wire is larger than the equivalent Cu one, so Cu will still be needed for the really small stuff.
I recently read that the average new home needs over 400 lbs of Cu, that could almost be totally eliminated using alternatives, that will free up a lot of Cu, limiting the price rise.
Just my opinion.
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GRR's Avatar
United States
310 Posts
 Posted 03/02/2011  8:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GRR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well, I never see people say silver searching is a bad idea, so I have a little devil's advocate situation for you.

person 1 gets a $250 box of dimes to silver search. average finds are 1-2 roosies which are about $2.50 each, so minus the 20 cents you paid for the dimes is about $4.80 profit for 2500 coins

person 2 buys a $25 box of pennies and pulls on average 600 copper pennies, worth 18.00 minus 6.00 paid for the pennies. That's a $12 profit. Now I know due to melting rules and such lets just say you can get 1.5x face. That's 9.00-6.00 which is still $3 profit per 2500 coins.

To me, hoarding/selling copper cents isn't far off from dime box searching. You're much less likely to get skunked, the upfront money is 1/10th the price, and the return is nearly the same. heck if you can get 2x face for copper pennies, you'd on average be making more than the average dime box.

Stretch that out over a 10 box run. You'd on average make $30 from copper pennies at 1.5x, and say you find a silver dime per box, you're at $25. you paid $250 for the pennies , but had to put up $2500 for the dimes. even ay you find 2 dimes in 5 of those boxes and don't get a skunk, then you have $37.50 in silver. I just see the penny searching as more productive.

The only silver searching boxes that I could see being better are halves, but those seem to be feast or famine now. You may get 10 skunks in a row, or you may get 1 good box, etc.

I really think copper pennies may be the most cost effective, for profit roll searching you can do.
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