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 Replies: 23 / Views: 3,614 |
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Valued Member
United States
213 Posts |
Silver Surges Over $46.25/oz as Rumours of a Short Squeeze and Cornering Market Gain Credence; Speculators Smell Blood. Gold and silver have surged to new record nominal highs in dollar terms (all time and 31-year) with the dollar falling sharply on international markets. Silver has continued to surge in all currencies and has surged to a new record nominal high of $46.25/oz on growing rumours of a short squeeze involving a billionaire or state interest attempting to corner the silver market. Traders and technically minded investors are firmly focused on silver's record nominal high of $50.35/oz. Some with a longer term fundamental focus continue to see silver in triple digits if it is to match the real record highs (inflation) of $130/oz seen in 1980. The inflation adjusted silver chart puts the present sharp rise in the all important historical context.  Silver's volatility is set to increase and sharp corrections are likely, however the sharp falls seen after the Hunt Brothers manipulation ended are unlikely today given the very strong supply and demand fundamentals. Sleep with your Silver under your pillow tonight! The Danester - |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
618 Posts |
Nice Post. Thanks for sharing that info.
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Valued Member
Canada
183 Posts |
High old Silver!! May-be $60.00 at the of the second quarter! If you are buying tooo late for deals on silver rounds they are going to the moon!!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
That billionaire is not gonna get his greasy paws on any of our silver eh....
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
There is too much volume of silver around for any one individual to corner the market. A huge amount of silver was released when silver was withdrawn from the World's circulating currencies. All of that silver is still available.
Speculation is a different animal, where everybody tries to jump on the bandwagon, and group mentality drives the market either up or down. Reminds me of the South Sea Bubble.
The graph is very useful, especially with the declining U.S. dollar. The current 10 year trend line puts silver at about $30 per ounce. It suggests that if there is a sudden crash in the silver price, the value per ounce would stop falling at about $15 per ounce.
OK if you have bought silver at $15 or less.
For those in the silver market, just be wary.............
Too volatile for me!
Edited by sel_69l
04/22/2011 03:07 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1150 Posts |
The only true bubble right now is the US dollar. For the life of me I can't understand how it has ANY remaining purchasing power! There are so many of those pesky little pieces of paper floating around this planet that it is mind boggling.
Silver is not in a bubble. The truth is that people are starting to realize how truly worthless the dollar is. It is only backed by our 'faith' in the government. And guess what? We have no faith anymore. If anyone can tell me how the government can fix our debt/deficit problems I'm all ears.
It will never happen. It is nearly impossible.
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Valued Member
United States
314 Posts |
@sel I hate to break it to you, but you are completely mis-informed. All of that silver is FAR from available. Tons and Tons have been melted down in refineries. Silver was and is also heavily used as an industrial metal. Alot of the silver that was melted down was used in production, and is gone forever. This isn't gold, where it all gets hoarded. Also, Silver is such a small piece of the market, it is well known that it only takes one Billionaire to move the market. The 10 year trend line is a useless scale to go by now that we know for a fact it was being manipulated by JPM. Just like any criminal who has the heat on them, JPM has had to lay low, and we are now seeing silver going to a price more suitable for it's true value. Roughly 40 million ounces will be mined in the U.S. this year. That's enough to cover the ASE production ONLY. Now, what about the silver needed for the silver sets?, 5oz bullion program?, commemoratives?, Medical companies?, Cellular Phones, Solar technology? The list goes on and on. It is estimated that 300 million ounces will be needed in the U.S. this year for industrial uses alone. Where's it coming from? The total amount mined in the U.S. will equal ASE mintage. The fact is, supply of silver is not even close to reaching current demand. It does not take long to wipe out truckloads of coins at the refineries to get the silver needed for industry, just for one year. I have not, nor would not, melt coins, but there are plenty that do. Silver is showing what is should have been. Coin collector's should feel lucky they had the opportunity to buy silver coins so cheap, for so long. |
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
ayejay: After doing some fairly basic searching, I have to agree with a lot of your comments. Currently, world silver demand is around 750 million ounces (22,500 tonnes), and consumption around 710 million ounces (21,300 tonnes). I have not searched for gold production figures, but I believe that they are about 1/12 of these figures, from reading recent magazine articles.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
Kind of ironic that the very reason we got off of the gold standard(to allow more flexibility in debt management)is the very same thing now driving people out of the dollar and back into gold(and silver).
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2448 Posts |
Well said Hockingzig! Watching "Fast Money" last night, all the "Experts" were predicting silver to go considerably higher. All were worried about the Hunt Brothers experience but were definitely looking for a sudden jump to higher levels.
Also, yesterday, the dollar index was lower than I've ever seen before. I still say, if it goes below 70, we're in for a rough ride. I hope that we don't see another "progressive stroke of the pen" as we did in 1933.
Don't know who said it, but someone uses it in his signature box: "A government large enough to give you everything can also take everything away." Banning bullion holding would definitely cause a real to do. It would certainly help to shore up government financing.
Edited by carmykle
04/22/2011 12:08 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
Rumors will start to fly faster and faster as the price moves higher
and higher. My guess is that a lot of the rumors will come from
the areas that have the most interest in seeing the price
drop dramatically (JP Morgan and such) that are having an
incredibly hard time with the huge short positions they hold.
Trying to get a panic sell off like during the Hunt Brothers
little party.
And the fact that people are catching on that when demanding
physical delivery from them they get offered a huge
premium to take cash. I heard in the range of 30-40%
premium for accepting cash for their settlement
on the contract instead of taking physical delivery
That has got to be hard on the bottom line for them
Edited by stewart
04/22/2011 12:57 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Well, according to what Sel691 was reading, that means there would only be 40 million oz left of silver, so I think to say there is a silver shortage is dead accurate. If there was ample amounts of silver an no one could make a sell, do you guys think it would be closing in on 47 oz on Easter weekend, lol....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts |
Why has the United States mint ceased production of the. 2011 ASE due to a shortage of metal supply? If anyone is going to corner the market they will have to do it with non-existent ETF silver. The best insurance against any shenanigans is for we believers to buy a little bit of the shiny stuff every week. I saw on Bloomberg the other night that the big ETF's cover any of their positions with borrowed and not owned silver and gold. They also stated that if their shareholders demanded physical delivery of their paper silver and gold they would only be able to meet the demands of 5% of their shareholders. Sounds to me like silver in the safe is a pretty good bet currently. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
If you are buying tooo late for deals on silver rounds they are going to the moon! David Oh, man! I sure hope not. Every single time I hear someone say that something is "going to the moon", a complete market meltdown is never very far behind. Can we say "Internet stocks", "houses", etc.? Quote:
That billionaire is not gonna get his greasy paws on any of our silver eh.... Silverhawk Indeed not! Me and my .41 mag are REAL attached to my share of that gorgeous stuff and it isn't going anywhere without my OKing the deal!  Quote:
There is too much volume of silver around for any one individual to corner the market. A huge amount of silver was released when silver was withdrawn from the World's circulating currencies. All of that silver is still available. - sel_69l The info that I have found on the net indicates that a LOT of the former government and big bank silver hoards have been sold off gradually over the years and it is this selling that has depressed the price of silver for so long. Now that those stocks are pretty well depleted, silver prices are off to the races. As to cornering a market... that is not as difficult as some might think. By using the leverage of derivatives, it is possible to control MUCH more of a given commodity or stock than one can actually afford to buy. These are VERY risky bets but if they pay off they tend to pay off BIG! Also, when one is dealing with a market where production and demand are about even, then even small moves in demand and production can lead to LARGE price swings. The oil market is currently in this position and I believe that the silver market is as well. Oil gets a lot more attention, though, so the silver market has been flying under the radar. That is now ending and lots of people are now aware that silver is more valuable than its price indicates. Silver has terrific upward price momentum and will likely maintain that for some time yet. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
If anyone can tell me how the government can fix our debt/deficit problems I'm all ears.
It will never happen. It is nearly impossible. - Mitch Mitch... I am forced to agree with you on this. Technically, this problem CAN be fixed but politically it will take more guts than seems to be available in DC. When trillions of dollars in cuts are needed, a great deal of time is being wasted, squabbling over a few billion here and there. As one fellow put it, "This is like two guys on the Titanic arguing over the bar tab". Their argument is irrelevant. Disaster is looming and their actions are not addressing the issue at hand. Wish that I could be more optimistic but recent history indicates that optimism is not warranted.  Another thought is that when disaster threatens to overwhelm us, the farther away from us that it is when we strike at it, the greater our chance is of deflecting it. By not addressing this critical issue many years ago, we have squandered our greatest resource in dealing with it... and that is time that we can never get back once it is gone. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
my opinion is the ones that bought in at 50+ an ounce and still have their silver now will dump all their silver back in the market as soon as it hits that price because they may not have another 31 years to wait for them to make their money back. At that point I think it will drop quite a bit, but that is just my opinion. I have talked with a few old investors that used to own businesses that we did some work for that had over 3000 pounds (50,000 ounces) he bought in the late 70's early 80's and he told me back then (this was probably 10 years ago) that if it ever got to that price again he was unloading his stock fast because he may never get another chance and he said he knew others that are going to be competing against each other to see who can cash theirs in faster then the others. I am sure they will not cash their whole holdings in but I am sure it will be enough to make the price drop when they do just as anything else would when the market floods with product. I am sure since its physical silver the price would have to be above the price they bought at for them to make their money back but just stating what he told me back then
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Replies: 23 / Views: 3,614 |
Posted 04/21/2011 10:26 pm
