New Silver Eagle SF Mint Two-Coin Set

Apologies in advance; I'm quoting myself from another thread from the same forum here, because I think the audience is deeper in this thread and I think the topic is worth discussion. Also because I'm genuinely angered about the pricing. I know the Mint has a somewhat captive audience with collectors, but this feels predatory. I've read that they're losing money by minting billions of cents and nickels this year but if this is how they intend to bridge the gap, it's folly (ok, no proof there, just complaining).

I somewhat get it though...yeah, yeah, "market dictates", "fools buy what fools will buy", "got you buy the short ones", etc. I.e, "you will pay us as much as we wish to charge for the privilege of owning this reverse proof that may or may not be scarce...oh and a nicely lacquered box"... but I still don't like it. Did they buy a giant pile of silver at last year's prices and are trying to break even?

*sigh*




Guess they're more concerned about the big buyers than the small ones. I don't think the major coin channels will touch this one. How much will this set go for on QVC? $1000?

/rant

It's swinging from one extreme to another, last year the Mint missed the gravy train and watched from the sidelines as flippers made 2x to 5x the original cost of the A25, to cash cow on the EG1 set.  The marketing and forecast gurus must have been ticked at missing out on their cut of the "profits." 

No one has really mentioned the Mint's shortfall from seignoirage, one easy way is by gouging their customer base with "special" sets. The shortfall is from the President dollars, only 1/5th of last years massive mintage, as well losing more money on the cents and nickels than ever before. The Mint is in a classic no-win situation, everything they make or do not make is mandated by Congress, however, the costs of doing business are their responsibility, which will always anger some part of collecting community. I really hope the powers that be at the Mint read some of these comments, but the way it looks is case of stealing from Paul to pay Peter. Not an enviable spot to be in. 

I was hinting at that last night in my rant when I mentioned the billions of cents and nickels US Mint is producing this year. I didn't mention the corresponding lack of dollar coins and quarters produced, which is where they make their seigniorage.

And I agree - it sounds like the Mint is trying to make up for the shortfall of funds by minting to demand. Seems more likely to me, especially when you couple it with the circulation S quarters that are being minted to demand, than making up for the 25th ASE debacle.

Everyone wants what they can't have (furby's, beanie babies, elmo, hess trucks, PT Cruisers...). Once they become abudantly available, no one wants them.

Thats the issue everyone is struggling to figure out and really one time will tell which way it will go.

This set could bomb horribly because of the price and the mint to demand and end up being a low mintage and great investment, or it could end up with a real high mintage and not worth anything extra if it even holds its price.

There really is just no way to tell with this mint to demand garbage. Even if the mintage is real low the final day everyone could see that and stock up and end up with a huge number from massive final day sales.

I believe they see it as a win-win situation for themselves no matter what happens - which probably also contributed to their idea of price gouging.

Mint to demand might be the best thing that could happen. It could keep the non-coin speculators out of the game entirely, which judging by other products 9especially the 2006 & 2011 sets) would mean that probably around 200,000 sets will sell (and I think this is a high estimate). I think that a rock bottom price for this set, based on $28 silver and 2006 and before mint markups (and $10 for fancy packaging) would be about $125. In that light, the $150 price may serve to eliminate those who insist that these coins are nothing more than fancy bullion (which they are not). I think that in today's world, once the silver spot falls below about $32, it is no longer a factor in the pricing of proof and uncirculated coins. I think that is what has happened with this set, the 2012 proof SAE, and the latest AtB-P coins. Those who want to buy silver coins for a few dollars over spot need to buy bullion coins, minted on unaltered planchets, using high speed presses (that last year struck over 100,000 coins per day), at low forces designed to maximize die lifetimes. The mint sells those coins to the APs at $2 over spot and retailers typically add another $2 or so for small volume buyers. This set, like the 2011 one, contains two unique coins, which history shows end up going for around $300 each, and represent the bulk of set value. As long as the final mintage stays under about 300,000 that model should hold fairly well (250,000 2006 sets were sold). Even if the long term value of the coins falls to $200, or even $150, this set will be a great value. I think the best way for real collectors to minimize buying by speculators is to buy early so that the number sold will be high enough before the last few days to keep the non-coin types from jumping in. Hopefully, those speculators won't take the risk if 200,000 or so sets have sold before the last day but is collectors hold back and only 50,000 sets are on the books, the flippers are likely to jump in in droves, possibly crashing the value. Decide how many sets you really want and order them early. I will probably order my usual five, one for each member of my immediate family (wife, kids, and me).

The 2006 sets were on sale for way more than two weeks. I bought mine on August 31, 2006 (which I think is the day they went on sale) and they were still on sale when it shipped on October 30. If I remember right, they were on sale into December (but my memory isn't what it used to be) which would mean 12+ weeks. And just to be accurate, the 2006 set sold for $100 even.