2012 American Silver Eagle / ASE San Francisco Two-Coin Silver Proof Set Ship Date - Page 5

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Author	Replies: 68 / Views: 7,918	Page: of 5

clairhardesty Pillar of the Community United States 1027 Posts	Posted 07/11/2012 09:21 am It might be worth pointing out, for the purposes of this sub-thread, that the average lifetime of proof and RP die is probably in the area of 1000 coins struck. The mint released information that leads one to conclude that uncirculated ASE die average about 3100 coins before being retired. When the 2008 reverse of 2007 was discovered, the mint estimated that 47,000 such coins had been struck because they discovered 15 2007 reverse die among the retired 2008 die sets. That works out to an average of 3133 coins per die pair. I would guesstimate that proof die go about 1600 coins and RP die about 800. Another data point is the ~300 coins that were said to come out of 2009 UHRDE die sets. Many recent fine silver and gold offerings from the mint have been running at or above 50% MS/PR70, the UHRDE being one of the first to do so (both at PCGS & NGC). After seeing what came out of SF in the 2011 sets (most notably the bullion coins), I fully expect that 60% or more of the coins in these sets could reach PR70 grades. Report this Post to the Staff
basebal21 Bedrock of the Community 13014 Posts	Posted 07/11/2012 4:22 pm Quote: Your die wear theory kinda assumes that the coins are shipped in the order struck which is not the case....put them all in a bin (figuratively) and pull them out one by one and....yes, you have a 50% chance of getting a 70 or not...your chance of 1000 69's or 1000 70's in a row fits the equation That only holds true though is EVERY single one of the coins that was minted was put into the same bin before shipment which we know is not the case from the different shipment dates. If my die theory is correct they also wouldnt be even distributed throughout the bin. Yes if you get every single coin together randomly mixed up its a 50 50 shot but at no point is every single coin in the same bin randomly mixed Quote: Many recent fine silver and gold offerings from the mint have been running at or above 50% MS/PR70, the UHRDE being one of the first to do so (both at PCGS & NGC). After seeing what came out of SF in the 2011 sets (most notably the bullion coins), I fully expect that 60% or more of the coins in these sets could reach PR70 grades. I stand corrected on how many end up perfect. Thanks for the info clair. My basic point was just that individual lots of coins will have more and less 70s than they should. The 50% is just an average of the hole not a guarantee. If you talking about a lot of 100 coins or even 1000 coins (which is less than .05% of the total mintage) there will be great variations in the amount of 70s through out the individual lots that just average out to around 50% in the end. It doesn't mean every lot contains 50% Report this Post to the Staff
Foxwoods Man Pillar of the Community United States 4901 Posts	Posted 07/11/2012 5:10 pm You kinda were sunk when you said: Quote: Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s itd still be possible to order 10k and not end up with a single one depending on what you got shipped. Unlikely but possible ...which is an untrue premise (the 50% part)...after that everything based on that false assumption would also be incorrect... I'm just having fun here so don't take it seriously.... 50% 70's....10,000 coins in a row that are NOT 70's? Possible?...yes...probable?.. absolutely not.... Same deal: If I jump out of a plane at 10,000 feet is there ANY chance I won't splat? Possible?....yes...probable?..absolutely not (there was actually a sky diver whose chute failed to open and he smashed into a barn full of hay and survived)... Report this Post to the Staff
basebal21 Bedrock of the Community 13014 Posts	Posted 07/11/2012 5:19 pm Quote: ...which is an untrue premise (the 50% part)...after that everything based on that false assumption would also be incorrect... I'm just having fun here so don't take it seriously.... 50% 70's....10,000 coins in a row that are NOT 70's? Possible?...yes...probable?.. absolutely not.... Same deal: If I jump out of a plane at 10,000 feet is there ANY chance I won't splat? Possible?....yes...probable?..absolutely not (there was actually a sky diver whose chute failed to open and he smashed into a barn full of hay and survived)... Lol I dont, a good debate is always fun. The 10k was a bit of an exaggeration but thats still not even 5% of the total mintage. Youd almost certainly have some 70s in there but one lot could be 75% and another could be 25%, could still have a variety of different percentages in those lots. I dont think to many orders of 10k came in. More realistically were probably dealing with lots of what 500-1000k where at under .05% of the total mintage absolutely anything could be in those lots Report this Post to the Staff
Foxwoods Man Pillar of the Community United States 4901 Posts	Posted 07/11/2012 5:49 pm ...and of course all the sets WE submit will be outliers since they will ALL grade 70 Report this Post to the Staff
basebal21 Bedrock of the Community 13014 Posts	Posted 07/11/2012 6:43 pm Quote: ...and of course all the sets WE submit will be outliers since they will ALL grade 70 I cant figure what happens, I always package up 70s and send them in and somehow get 69s back Report this Post to the Staff
clairhardesty Pillar of the Community United States 1027 Posts	Posted 07/11/2012 11:04 pm You think that's bad, I sent this coin in, not hoping for a perfect grade but to have the obverse mint die error certified. The PR67 grade just added insult to injury when PCGS insisted that there was nothing wrong with the coin. Officially, they did not even offer an explanation, they simply returned the coin graded as you see here. I have to wonder if the PR67 grade is because the obverse just didn't look very good. P.S. As far as I know, this is still the only example of this error that got out of the mint. It has been three years since I first posted it and no one has come forward with another specimen. Edited by clairhardesty 07/11/2012 11:16 pm Report this Post to the Staff
basebal21 Bedrock of the Community 13014 Posts	Posted 07/11/2012 11:59 pm Clair thats absolutely brutal. Personally Id be tempted to break it out and try again if for nothing else to get better than a 67. Or break it out and take it in person to one of their grading tables. I'm not sure I could resist the temptation with the chance for a 1 of a kind. I've actually been trying to find some MS army half dollars to send in for that exact reason, pcgs has 0 70s in their pop. I know its a long shot and probably wont happen but ill be on cloud 9 if somehow it works Report this Post to the Staff
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2012 ASE San Francisco Two-Coin Silver Proof Set Ship Date