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Pillar of the Community
United States
1391 Posts |
nice chart, Clair  |
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Valued Member
United States
384 Posts |
Based on the 251,302 total mentioned above, if only 1% of the sets ordered are returned/cancelled, the total would go below the number of coins for the 2006 coin. What are the chances of this happening?
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Based on the 251,302 total mentioned above, if only 1% of the sets ordered are returned/cancelled, the total would go below the number of coins for the 2006 coin. What are the chances of this happening? I think itd need to be a little more than that, but I think its kind of a given about 1 percent give or take a few will come out bad and be sent back on any series besides gold |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1027 Posts |
Actually, AlmostCollectible is right. The 2006 set final number stands at 248,875 and the 2012 currently is at 251,302 which means that 2006 is 99.03% of 2012. 251,302 * 0.99 = 248,789 or slightly less than the 2006 number.
I don't think that any of that matters however. The two sets have virtually identical mintages and which one is actually lower in the end won't make any difference in value. What will matter more is how tightly the sets are held and how much demand there is for the ones that are on the market at any given time. Both sets were essentially minted to demand and it looks like the initial demand has not changed. The 2006 set was on sale for a longer time period than the 2012 set. Sales for the 2006 set began on August 31st and was still on sale when my set shipped on October 30, nine weeks later. The big difference is the 2006 set went on sale very quietly and went off sale the same way. No mintages were announced during the sale and the only thing that had been specified was the maximum mintage of 250K.
Edited by clairhardesty
07/08/2012 1:49 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
12857 Posts |
Either way, those that chose to buy now own (or will own when they arrive) 2 ASE's with some of the lowest mintage #'s of the series. I'm curious as to how many were snapped up by dealers wanting to make a profit on ebay or wherever vs. those of us that bought for our own collections. Personally, I'm a bit of a hybrid - I bought 3 with plans to unload 1 if I can get a premium, otherwise, I'll keep all 3. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:I'm curious as to how many were snapped up by dealers wanting to make a profit on ebay or wherever vs. those of us that bought for our own collections. That would have been interesting to see. I also find it a little odd that currently its possible to pre order NGC sets even in 70s but not PCGS ones. Even the sites that have the PCGS ones listed still have them as unavailable like they have no clue what theyll get back from them but you can pre order the NGC all you want |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
NGC will cal a 70 coin a 70 while PCGS will create their perceived rarities by limiting the numbers of 70 handed out. This, in turn, makes their prices higher but screws most collectors out of their submitted 70's. If you plan on getting a PCGS 70 set it makes much more sense just to buy it that way than to submit 6-7 sets for that one 70 set...
Just an opinion but it sometimes is VERY obvious....
The reason for no PCGS pre-sales is that it hasn't been made obvious what percentage of 70's will come out of PCGS...
With the quality of the Mint proofs and RP's it is a safe bet that there will be many coins deserving of the grade 70. NGC will be true to grade....PCGS hasn't shown where they are on this one yet....
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
NGC will cal a 70 coin a 70 while PCGS will create their perceived rarities by limiting the numbers of 70 handed out. This, in turn, makes their prices higher but screws most collectors out of their submitted 70's. If you plan on getting a PCGS 70 set it makes much more sense just to buy it that way than to submit 6-7 sets for that one 70 set...
Just an opinion but it sometimes is VERY obvious....
The reason for no PCGS pre-sales is that it hasn't been made obvious what percentage of 70's will come out of PCGS...
With the quality of the Mint proofs and RP's it is a safe bet that there will be many coins deserving of the grade 70. NGC will be true to grade....PCGS hasn't shown where they are on this one yet.... Thats true, just kind of interesting how they pretty much know what theyll get back from NGC but not PCGS. I do plan on buying one, then depending how the market for the 69s looks may send in a couple sets just to see and hope to get lucky. If it doesn't look good Ill have on to a couple and sell 1 or 2 raw |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Quote:
Thats true, just kind of interesting how they pretty much know what theyll get back from NGC but not PCGS. One company is very consistent with their grading and it is (should be) easy to predict grade percentages of most quality modern issues. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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One company is very consistent with their grading and it is (should be) easy to predict grade percentages of most quality modern issues. I guess. Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s itd still be possible to order 10k and not end up with a single one depending on what you got shipped. Unlikely but possible |
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Valued Member
United States
384 Posts |
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Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s itd still be possible to order 10k and not end up with a single one depending on what you got shipped. Unlikely but possible Actually I'll take your bet, because its not just "unlikely" but for all practical purposes it's impossible. If 50% of coins are 70s, that's like saying you toss a coin 10,000 times and get a head every time. In fact that number is so small, that when you put it into google search, their calculator can't even handle it, and just spits out a 0 instead. Try it out, here's the formula: (0.5)^10000 I had to use a scientific calculator to come up with the probability: 5.0123727e-3011 |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Actually I'll take your bet, because its not just "unlikely" but for all practical purposes it's impossible. If 50% of coins are 70s, that's like saying you toss a coin 10,000 times and get a head every time.
In fact that number is so small, that when you put it into google search, their calculator can't even handle it, and just spits out a 0 instead. Try it out, here's the formula:
(0.5)^10000
I had to use a scientific calculator to come up with the probability: 5.0123727e-3011
Except youre assuming every coin has a 50 50 chance of ending up a 70 which it doesn't. 50 percent wont end up 70s anyway but for the fun of it lets hypothetically assume they d. A coin struck at the start of a die would have a far greater chance of becoming a 70 than a coin struck at the end of the die. So every coin wouldnt have a 50 50 chance like that formula assumes. Secondly knowing that fact id guess probably around 75% of the 50 would come at the begging or at the very least the first half of a new dies life. Depending on how the coins get mixed up and stored would have a ton to do with it too. I dunno how many coins they press before they decide to send to the assembly line, but if they did it every 1000 coins the vast majority of 70s would more than likely end up near each other and a lot would depend on how lucky you ended up being in the order line for what you got. 250k mintage if for the sake of argument we said 50% were 70s thats 125k of 70s and 125k of everything else. You could most certainly get an order of 1000 coins without a 70 in it with that many non 70s and the other factors, its no as easy as saying you have a 50 50 chance everytime because you dont. Bottom line though being assured a certain amount of 70s or a figure theyre looking to give you just means youre getting special treatment from NGC or they are much easier graders. You cant assume you will get anything besides a 69 till the coins are there and have been examined. In reality probably less than 20 percent of the coins end up 70s and it may be even lower than that if you want to go check pop reports against minatge limits |
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Valued Member
United States
384 Posts |
basebal21, I was trying not to make any assumptions at all, and going strictly by your assumptions: Quote:
Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s And I am still not convinced by the rest of your math, or reasoning either. Because there is a pretty straight forward mathematical formula for calculating the probability of this, and I just gave it in the above post. What you said here: Quote:
Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s itd still be possible to order 10k and not end up with a single one Is equivalent to saying you flip a coin 10,000 times in a row and get a head face up every single time. Or if you're a gambler, probability wise you have a better chance of going to a roulette table and betting on red 10000 times in a row and winning every single time, then what you said above. Anyways, going back to the original topic, I am probably getting the last of the sets, as my ship date is 10/31/12.  |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
And I am still not convinced by the rest of your math, or reasoning either. Because there is a pretty straight forward mathematical formula for calculating the probability of this, and I just gave it in the above post. Youre mathematical formula assumes every coin would be an independent trial with a 50 50 chance of being a 70 or not. Every coin isn't independent, in fact they are very much tied together as every coin a die makes the lower the chance the next one will be perfect. Quote:
Is equivalent to saying you flip a coin 10,000 times in a row and get a head face up every single time.
Or if you're a gambler, probability wise you have a better chance of going to a roulette table and betting on red 10000 times in a row and winning every single time, then what you said above. Again its not the same. Each coin flip is independent of the next. Same with roulette spins. Coins are not independent trials. Youd have to ask someone at the mint but its very logical to assume the majority of 70s will come when a die is fresh before it gets warn. That would mean 70s would come out in groups and then almost entirely disappear until the dies are changed. What happens with those groups has a huge impact on how many 70s youd get or not. If they all get mixed in a lot theyd be spread out, if they get grouped in lots individual lots will be both over and under represented for the proportional amounts of 70s they should have for the over all mintage. As far as I know they do get mixed up, but they dont put them all in a mixer to truely mix them and spread out the 70s otherwise they would be no 70s from the entire lot. If you laid out every coin minted yes itd be a coin flip, in smaller lots its not a 50 50 chance by any means. My point all along was that you dont know what you got until its examined and for NGC to say theyll grade approximately so many doesn't mean theyre being truer to grade, just that theyre either doing the company a favor or are easier graders and possibly both |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
I REALLY don't want to get in the middle of this one but....
...if you start with the premise that 50% of the coins will be 70's (your statement) then it doesn't matter when they are struck or how much the die is worn....the end result is still 50% 70's
SOooooooo Almostcollectable's math is correct (even though I can't figure out that resulting number)
Your die wear theory kinda assumes that the coins are shipped in the order struck which is not the case....put them all in a bin (figuratively) and pull them out one by one and....yes, you have a 50% chance of getting a 70 or not...your chance of 1000 69's or 1000 70's in a row fits the equation
Edited by Foxwoods Man
07/11/2012 08:00 am
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Posted 07/07/2012 10:40 pm
