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2008: Low Mintages At The US Mint

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ratio411's Avatar
United States
1208 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  11:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ratio411 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good point folks. Just think if you were considering a
modern clad commem with a mintage that high! Would you
touch it with a 10' pole? We are dealing with a coin
that isn't meant for circulation. That mintage is very
low for circulation, but commems get much lower numbers,
and most have silver going for them too, and they don't
get ultra valueable like true low mintage circs.
Valued Member
MtnCoinMan's Avatar
United States
462 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  11:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MtnCoinMan to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Just think if you were considering a
modern clad commem with a mintage that high! Would you
touch it with a 10' pole?

If it were just thirty-five cents over face, YOU BET! Ten years from now, is there a chance that one million folks will have some sort of " Kennedy half" collection? I think that is a strong possibility. If so, will most of them be willing to pay a couple of bucks for a 2008 Kennedy half? More than likely, maybe even three bucks. Again, the downside is only thirty five cents per coin. The upside has good potential. Will anyone get rich? No, but us true collectors don't make our living on coins, we just have fun. And if we make enough profit on selling one coin to upgrade a coin in our collection, we do the "Happy Coin Dance"!
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ratio411's Avatar
United States
1208 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  11:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ratio411 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Agreed. I think that 'good points' abound in this thread.
As we discussed in another, all coin collectors have an
investment mentality as part of the excitement of the
hobby. On this point, you are correct that modest gains
add to the fun.

The other side of the coin (no pun) is that like pointed
out, these are not the vehicle of future riches that
some may paint them to be.

So yes, for the excitement of the hobby, there is no down
side to this coin.. But to compare them to century old
circs with similar mintage is a mistake.

I bought several rolls when I read this thread, so don't
get me wrong. I want in on the excitement. I also want in
on the argument to play devil's advocate!

I love to argue!
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MtnCoinMan's Avatar
United States
462 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  12:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MtnCoinMan to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ratio
I love debating with you. Who knows, maybe it will get to the point of us throwing empty paper coin rolls at each other!

You are correct in that circulating coins do not compare to NIFC coins. But the argument must get beyond that. There might be MORE Coin Collectors today than there was General Population in 1909. I read somewhere that with the advent of the State Quarters, the population of Coin Collectors went through the roof. Let's say in 2020 that the US Mint starts some sort of Half Dollar Program, something like "Inventors in US History" (ie. Edison, Whitney, Scudders, etc...) or "Technology Advances in US History" (ie. auto, airplane, computer, etc...). Very Hypothetical, I know, but still fun to think about. So many factors that can affect the demand for something, it borders on "Chaos Theory" that we all learned about in the movie "Jurrasic Park".

So I get to play "angel's advocate"!

Buy, buy, buy! Buy when everyone else is selling! Sell when everyone else is buying!
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Conder101's Avatar
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17884 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  2:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
There might be MORE Coin Collectors today than there was General Population in 1909. I read somewhere that with the advent of the State Quarters, the population of Coin Collectors went through the roof.

Hardly. The figure quoted by the Mint on the number of collectors, 130 to 140 million, count everyone who tosses their change into a jar at the end of the day. Think about it. By their figures one out of every TWO people is a coin collector. A much more realistic estimate would be between one and two million an that would basically include anyone serous enough to be willing to pay a significant premium over face value for a coin. That means a little less than one in a hundred which is a LOT closer than one in two.
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MtnCoinMan's Avatar
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462 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  2:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MtnCoinMan to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The US Population in 1909 was only around 9,000,000. There is a good chance the there are 9,000,000 different folks with some type of coin album today. One to two million serious collectors would be fairly accurate.
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eaglefoot's Avatar
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 Posted 01/13/2009  3:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I've heard that the State Qtr. Program turned roughly 45 million coin collectors nationwide into 140-170 million coin collectors nationwide. Now a lot of those won't end up being "steady" collectors and their interest will wane, but nonetheless, for some reason more than half the country was very energized by that program. I don't know, but I really doubt, that at any time in our nations history, we saw such a huge "surge" as that. Be it in 1909 or decades before. Coin collecting is "ancient", but, in those numbers per capita for one country......it's amazing what the State Qtr. Program really did for our hobby.
However, as Condor has said.....I personally know very few "serious" coin collectors. So, how can one get an accurate "count" of serious coin collectors vs. the ones who just throw spare change into a jar. In fact I can count them on one hand. (of course I'm not referring to my CCF friends!)
Whether it's 1 out of every 2.......or 1 out of every 250.....hard to know until we put some decades of time behind us and look back at the evidence as to what was "collected" and in what grade, type, etc. and compare the "quality coins" in existance then, at that point, with what the mintage numbers were......interesting to debate and ponder though.
Edited by eaglefoot
01/13/2009 3:30 pm
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gormang's Avatar
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182 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  3:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gormang to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Don't discount what HSN, QVC and the other shopping channels have done. You talk about serious people willing to pay a premium over face value .
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biokemist6's Avatar
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12437 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  3:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biokemist6 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yes gormang, but I would lump those people into a group called "the future, disgruntled EX-collectors" once they find out there were swindled and can only recover cents on the dollar
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BadThad's Avatar
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 Posted 01/13/2009  4:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BadThad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Yes gormang, but I would lump those people into a group called "the future, disgruntled EX-collectors" once they find out there were swindled and can only recover cents on the dollar


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BH1964's Avatar
United States
10982 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  9:44 pm  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
2008 Bald Eagle Commemorative:

Gold $5 Half Eagle - 59,025 in proof and 14,138 in uncirculated; Total $5 Gold Half Eagle mintage = 73,163.

That sounds pretty low to me. Do you think there's numismatic value here?

ANA #R3154474
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biokemist6's Avatar
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12437 Posts
 Posted 01/13/2009  11:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biokemist6 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The proof mintage is not particularly low(for a $5 gold commem) but the uncirculated mintage gives that one some promise, I hadn't even noticed that it was that low
Compare to the 1995 Civil War and 1995/6 Olympic coins, those have quite a premium over common issues and are of a similar mintage.
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BadThad's Avatar
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19966 Posts
 Posted 01/14/2009  12:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BadThad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
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eaglefoot's Avatar
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6326 Posts
 Posted 01/14/2009  08:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well, I have the Bald Eagle Set (proof) and I bought a couple of the Silver Bald Eagle Commem's exta........I'll just have to be satisfied with those.....
No uncirculated gold for Eaglefoot...only proof.........

I wonder if they'll lower future mintage numbers while the country goes through a "recession".....and maybe a really bad one. Maybe many fewer people will buy fewer U.S. Mint products accross the board And I bet the Mint Director and Congress will be well aware of this potential possibility.....hmmmm....
Edited by eaglefoot
01/14/2009 09:15 am
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jbuck's Avatar
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189340 Posts
 Posted 01/14/2009  11:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Maybe many fewer people will buy fewer U.S. Mint products accross the board
Definitely something to consider; this year's NIFC coins have a potential to appreciate in value.
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