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So The 2012 Silver Proof Is The New JFK Key Non-SMS Coin?

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Pillar of the Community
United States
1817 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  2:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bizybackson to your friends list
@Earle: Your point is correct, the Mint is the biggest 'flipper' of them all, everyone else is just along for the ride. They knew well in advance they were going to short sell the silver set so the 'limited edition' silver proof set would move. Otherwise, how could someone justify $30 more over the individual components than if the lesser price set was suddenly sold out and caught everybody unawares? They literally have a license to coin money as much or as little as they want.
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1302 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  2:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cc99999 to your friends list
the number of modern collectors has always intrigued me. I look at it this way- there are coins that dealers can always get and there are coins that collectors can always find. these kinds of things aren't rare.

it would literally take a situation where a dealer had a hard time finding a piece for me to consider it scarce. Case in point, you can get a 1916-D Mercury dime in grades up to VG every day of the week, three times on Sunday.... but try to locate the MS-63 one you really like- and you'll have a problem.

I always advise collectors to find leverage points in series they like. Get the thing dealers want if you are into it for investment sake. If you are into it just to have fun- then do whatever.
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3755 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  3:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add smokeriderdon to your friends list
Simply put, 4oo some thousand coins is NOT enough for every collector who wants one to get one. There is no other way to view it. It is NOT dealers making something up. It is simple actual mintage numbers.


Quote:
I don't much collect modern proofs... My wheel-house goes from 1938-1972


Here is the issue. Let me say now, I have no issue with you or anyone else preferring old coins and not moderns. Personal preference is just that, a personal preference. The problem is that many collectors with that attitude also automatically poo poo anything modern..."aaaahhhh thats just a Kennedy. It isn't a classic coin, it's not a real collectors coin". This is evidenced at every coin show I have ever been to. Don't believe me, try to fill holes in a Jefferson or Roosevelt or Kennedy Dansco. Which brings me to...

Every collector can NOT get ahold of these coins. If you truly believe that, just try completing one of these sets. Getting these coins in higher grades is NOT easy, and not cheap either. Trust me. It took my almost 2 years to finish off the Kennedy book.


Quote:
as long as the coin's price stays about the same as a 1955 Franklin proof

I see the point, but that is completely flawed logic. That is the same argument used for "(insert ridiculously low mintage coin here) has a lower mintage than a 16D Merc but is worth less." The whole supply and demand thing makes that argument irrelevant.

I don't see anyone arguing that a Merc or Barber or SLQ etc with a mintage of 500 some thousand or less is a key. A mintage that low, IT IS A KEY. You may not like modern coins. You may have a narrow view of collecting only encompassing a certain type or time period. But a key is a key. And by definition, a coin with that low a mintage is a key.

As far as value, it will be a mid 20-30 dollar coin. The 2010 and 11 with similar but slightly higher mintages sell in that range.


Quote:
But I was under the impression that under 500,000 would not make up enough for the number of collectors in the US


You are NOT wrong here. That is completely the case.


Quote:
My point is that dealers and flippers will capitalize on this fact until the 2013s are revealed to be even less


If that turns out to be the case, as it looks like it will based on the previous two years, so? That does not change the fact that the mintage for 2012 is under a half million and still a key. Again, I don't see anyone arguing against value on multiple key coins in the Barber dime series, or Walkers or Lincolns. Your line of thinking would result in a 14D not being a valuable key simply because the 09 S VDB has a lower mintage than it does.

So, to answer the original question, yes, the 2012 silver proof is a key in the Kennedy series. Not THE key, which I would say is the 98 matte proof (which I STILL have not been able to find in the condition I want unslabbed), but a key none the less. If using the word key is really that much of an issue, then say semi key.
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 Posted 01/06/2013  3:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CaptainFwiffo to your friends list
The 1909-S VDB and 1916-D have a survival rate well over 100%, which probably contributes to their availability.
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2734 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  8:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DNA to your friends list

Quote:
So I wonder if maybe marketing at the mint knew this and therefore chopped off the supply of the silver proof sets on purpose to help them sell the special limited edition set?

But then why did they drop the 2012 Clad Proof Set the very next day? And the 2012 Presidential dollar Set?

I think they saw an opportunity to save on inventory/storage costs, create a few "rarities" (thus generating additional publicity!), and encourage collectors to buy their 2013 Proof Sets during calendar year 2013.

For calendar year 2012 (sales from Jan. 4th to Dec. 31st), 48,713 of the 2011 Proof Sets and 31,525 of the 2011 Silver Proof Sets were sold. And how many were they storing the whole time? Looking at these low figures and considering inventory/storage costs, someone at the Mint decided they'd be better off melting the unsold 2012 Sets (along with the unsold 2011 Sets) rather than catering to the fence-sitters...
Edited by DNA
01/06/2013 9:09 pm
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3755 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  9:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add smokeriderdon to your friends list
If there is a fixed number of coins minted, I am not sure how you could get over 100% survivability. 500 thousand were minted but 510 thousand survived. Oooooooookaaayyyyy
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  9:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list

Quote:
someone at the Mint decided they'd be better off melting the unsold 2012 Sets


I wonder if they just sold what they had on hand and instead of running another batch just decided to call it quits and move on to the next things.

Bedrock of the Community
United States
10034 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  10:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list
DNA - interesting theory - could be!

smokeriderdon said:

Quote:
If there is a fixed number of coins minted, I am not sure how you could get over 100% survivability. 500 thousand were minted but 510 thousand survived. Oooooooookaaayyyyy



Sure! The Chinese companies like Big Tree have been helping these numbers reach well over 100% for quite a few years now.
How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
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Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves
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1817 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  10:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bizybackson to your friends list
@basebal: Strange turn of events, eh? On Monday, the '11 sets go off sale then followed immediately by the '12 sets on Wednesday and Thursday. If what you suggest was the case, how come these two sets didn't end up on the Last Chance page? The thinking probably was let's just sell these during the calendar year, and forecast enough until then, once the year is over, that's it, we won't package anymore like we did (stupidly) with the '11 sets, which took up space and generated storage fees. We are not just talking about the marketing department, but also the accountants who presumably want to squeeze every cent they can get off of each of the available products. They probably saw the dismal numbers of the '11 sets in '12 and concluded it was a waste of time and space to keep the sets available for so long. After the FY'12 report that just came out, don't be surprised with forthcoming short sales, there seems to be belt tightening at the Mint again.

Folks: good discussion. Everybody has good points to make. Thanks!
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  10:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list
Coincidence maybe? They may have in fact melted down quite a few sets and probably did want to drive the higher premium silver set they released, at the same time though I wouldnt be surprised if they were getting kind of low on them anyway and were close to if not at the point where they would have to keep restocking if they were going to leave them up. Maybe they just said well give them till this so and so date and if they sell out great if not well move on.

It is interesting how the 11 products were basically available all year yet the 12 products dont even survive the first week of 13
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 Posted 01/06/2013  10:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bizybackson to your friends list
Too coincidental, perhaps? But definitely someone at the Mint is going through the catalog with an ax. Wish they would ax the less important 'junkier' offerings and not the basic annual sets, which are at the heart of the hobby.
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts
 Posted 01/06/2013  10:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list
Its definitely fishy but possible.

I completely agree. If theyre going to start axing things how about stop including the same coins in multiple sets. Leave the annual sets along and stop giving up 8 different sets we have to buy to get all the quarters ect.

I do like the idea of lower mintage and more variety though
Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts
 Posted 01/07/2013  12:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DNA to your friends list
If they already had a meltdown scheduled for the unsold 2011 Sets, they figured why not throw in all the unsold 2012 Sets and get two year's worth melted down at one time?

If the 2012 Silver/Clad Proof Quarters Sets are not axed by the end of next week, the storage issue could be the reason. One-lens Sets such as the Proof Quarters take up less space than the three-lens full Proof Sets.

True, the one-lens 2012 Presidential dollar Proof Set was axed, but the Mint sold 249,265 of those Sets alone. The total mintage of 2012 Proof Presidential dollars is three times that of the 2012 Silver Proof Dimes and JFK's.
Edited by DNA
01/07/2013 9:41 pm
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts
 Posted 01/07/2013  01:09 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list

Quote:
The mintage of 2012 Proof Presidential dollars is three times that of the 2012 Silver Proof Dimes and JFK's.


Thats the frustrating part to me at least, most of the individual series dont have unreasonable mintages but then when you factor in all the different sets things are included in they start to climb real fast
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2734 Posts
 Posted 01/07/2013  9:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DNA to your friends list
Just got my Clad 2012 Proof Set today (accompanied by a 2012 Silver Quarters Proof Set).

A second Clad Proof Set now sits beside my 2009 Clad Set to clutter up my 1992-date Silver Proof Set collection...

Now the big question is where the 2012 Proof Quarter mintages will end up.

Quote:
when you factor in all the different sets things are included in they start to climb real fast

A big factor in favor of the 2012 Silver JFK's and Dimes!

With both of the full 2012 Proof Sets gone, the previously slow-moving Proof Quarters Sets might pick up speed.

If both of the 2012 Proof Quarters Sets remain available until March or later, the 2012 Proof Quarter mintages could approach those of the 2011's (in theory).


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