Are Current Overall Coin Prices For Classic US Coins A Good Value Or Overpriced?

@Winesteven and @hfjacinto, We're going to have to agree to disagree here. I'm not interested in the politics of anything, much less COVID, but there is a COVID impact on coin shows and dealers. What we see in the marketplace may depend more on our age and vantage point than anything entirely objective.

I am part of a whole generation of older dealers who closed up shop or are in the process of doing so. Local shops are reopening, but not all of them. Larger shows have returned, but not all of them. There is an economic impact from the COVID era. And COVID was a large driver in these decisions.

My wife and I closed up our business (buyer-side agency) and sold not only our remaining inventory, but also our personal collections. It took four dealers to absorb our inventory, and two dealers and two long-time collectors to absorb our personal collections. Our inventory wasn't that large. Our personal collections were pretty run of the mill, and hardly market-impacting. Why did it take so many to absorb them? Their carrying capacity was not large enough to take on more. This is a function of credit, liquidity, interest rates, market risk, and signs that the market is slowly becoming more risk-aversive.

A combination of things right now, including COVID, wars, inflation, economic changes, and trade/supply shortages, are impacting the market. Many of us who have been around the game for 45/50+ years have seen this a couple times before, and are too old (and too tired) to ride out another roller coaster.

For us, and I suspect others, the future doesn't look as good as the present market. It takes time to rebound, and we don't have that time. That's why we exited the market now. Others, who are much younger, may see the future differently.

I would only urge a few things to ponder:
If the older dealers like us are retiring, are the older collectors our age also pondering retirement? If so, what will their collections (and lack of future collecting) do to the market?
Why is the ANA choosing right now to de-accession their surplus coins? Why not wait another couple years? What motivates doing this right now?
Why did the Harry Bass Jr. Foundation pick right now to de-accession its fantastic gold collection and place it up for auction? Why not wait another couple years? What motivates doing this right now?
Where are the younger Millennial and Generation Z dealers? I started dealing coins in my teens. Where are the young guns who will replace my generation of dealers? (I know there are a few, but not nearly as many as the number of retiring dealers.) The same dynamic exists for collectors, more are retiring than starting.

I believe that we are in an investment bubble, and that includes coin prices. Regardless of local economic conditions, ebay (for better or for worse) has become the market of choice, and a large component of any pricing structure.

Again, you may see things very differently from a different vantage point. I definitely respect your views, and I'm not seeking to persuade you to my viewpoint. I only seek for you to consider that others are choosing to exit the market right now for a variety of reasons, and the one reason none of us can change is aging out of the market. Is the older crowd choosing now as the time for exiting the market an opportunity, or is it a cause for concern? You will need to make that determination for yourself. As for my wife and I, we're out. We used the money from the coins to fix up our small ranch property. We plan to put it on the market and then ride off into the sunset.

Thanks for indulging us!

@fortcollins, I agree with several of your points, and respectfully disagree with some others. Since none of us know future results, only time will tell. With that said, I don't believe the overall rate of increase we've seen in coin values over the past six months will continue at that rate. I believe continuing high inflation over at least the next two years will have a damper on our economy and the coin market. That, not Covid, is the biggest factor in my opinion.

I wish you and your wife well.

Steve

I see at least three types of retired collector:
1. Sell the collection to pay for retirement / do other things
2. Sell the collection so your heirs aren't hassled with it (could be in conjunction with #1)
3. Buy more coins now that you have time/renewed interest and can afford it

I fall into #3. If that was the only impact on the market (it's not), the impact depends on how many are in the sell or buy categories. I guess that's obvious.

No worries. I thought you where referring to my original post. My apologies. So much is lost through text sometimes.

Cheers

Makes no difference to me what the future of coin vales are. I'm just to old to care.

@FlyingTiger - I like the way you think!

GREAT pickup! Enjoy!

Steve

I voted for "They are priced just right and things wont change much". At least that is what I think will happen in the near future.
And coins are always "priced right", otherwise there would be an arbitrage opportunity which typically doesn't last long in a reasonable liquid market.
Regarding LCS and coins shows....perhaps it depends where you live, but in my neck of the woods LCS are open and coins shows are a go. In fact, I will be going to a local coin show in two weeks, and plan to be at the June Whitman show in Baltimore.